Champions League · resolved market
Will Arsenal FC vs. Qairat FK end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x82b857cb32f5eda6fdc76eff9a01abc2721d87535be02f7a2ed7a995be85223e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $124,378
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $138,312
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $124,378 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x44a1…bd21backed Yes | 4c | 19,459$710 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$709.95 | 62 | 21%13 W · 49 L | -4.3wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x741a…4dbebacked Yes | 4c | 3,000$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -39%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97e0…8194backed Yes | 4c | 2,774$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.74 | 163 | 49.1%80 W · 83 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Yes | 4c | 2,717$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.68 | 582 | 48.8%284 W · 298 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc12…8093backed Yes | 4c | 2,500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f9…267abacked Yes | 4c | 1,580$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 4c | 1,536$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.03 | 61 | 27.9%17 W · 44 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe648…b79abacked Yes | 4c | 1,325$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 62 | 25.8%16 W · 46 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 4c | 1,244$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.4 | 187 | 7%13 W · 174 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Yes | 5c | 1,196$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.96 | 214 | 60.7%130 W · 84 L | +21.0wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Yes | 4c | 1,150$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.38 | 53 | 35.8%19 W · 34 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Yes | 2c | 1,127$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.7 | 200 | 42.5%85 W · 115 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Yes | 6c | 1,041$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.14 | 206 | 43.2%89 W · 117 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a22…c3b5backed Yes | 4c | 1,001$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab6f…067bbacked Yes | 4c | 900$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.54 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1052…53dabacked Yes | 3c | 885.01$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.21 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x705d…f3a9backed Yes | 4c | 864.96$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.56 | 61 | 19.7%12 W · 49 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed Yes | 4c | 801.59$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.86 | 264 | 45.8%121 W · 143 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0a…b9ccbacked Yes | 5c | 741.65$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 44 | 54.5%24 W · 20 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfdb…0ababacked Yes | 5c | 708.45$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.97 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92d6…0550backed Yes | 4c | 701.63$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.94 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30a0…a458backed Yes | 2c | 700$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 24cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52b3…3a58backed Yes | 4c | 694.26$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.18 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafd4…4432backed Yes | 5c | 631.76$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.33 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +2.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +108.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x466f…bb3bbacked Yes | 4c | 625.4$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 45 | 28.9%13 W · 32 L | +5.7wins | +0.13per pick | 16cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0dc4…3c1dbacked Yes | 4c | 619.92$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -2.8wins | -0.17per pick | 36cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6c0b…43cbbacked Yes | 4c | 599.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.39 | 139 | 31.7%44 W · 95 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 4c | 551.51$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.18 | 64 | 28.1%18 W · 46 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +70.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa62d…92e0backed Yes | 4c | 512.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 37 | 27%10 W · 27 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69ee…6e35backed Yes | 4c | 509$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.83 | 170 | 45.9%78 W · 92 L | -8.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc1…9932backed Yes | 3c | 500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 4c | 500$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 79 | 24.1%19 W · 60 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…e6febacked Yes | 4c | 458.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd306…4320backed Yes | 5c | 444.42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 57 | 24.6%14 W · 43 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9d9…2f4abacked Yes | 7c | 437.43$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…9c04backed Yes | 4c | 400$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.13per pick | 21cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc724…ef90backed Yes | 4c | 399.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.3 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfed7…e405backed Yes | 4c | 394$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.94 | 61 | 41%25 W · 36 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd8d7…13d4backed Yes | 4c | 269.58$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e6f…c966backed Yes | 5c | 267.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.87 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6368…f74fbacked Yes | 4c | 265.39$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bf9…307bbacked Yes | 4c | 260$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9360…b9c7backed Yes | 4c | 251.36$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa243…6080backed Yes | 4c | 250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d6b…5263backed Yes | 5c | 217.62$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Arsenal FC vs. Qairat FK end in a draw?this page
- Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-01-28?Yes won
- Will Qairat FK win on 2026-01-28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.