Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 24°C on August 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x82bec4c387ac10eae98cf506d280e43c45d2264ce9d900cfa54b69058b4763a3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,601
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,505
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,601 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 28c | 510.31$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.85 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 21c | 446.45$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.65 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…9288backed No | 68c | 219.85$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.07 | 172 | 62.2%107 W · 65 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 67c | 146.93$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.09 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 70c | 132.4$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.04 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 28c | 130.53$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.29 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1461…b97ebacked No | 54c | 125.64$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.9 | 280 | 35.4%99 W · 181 L | -69.3wins | -0.25per pick | 60cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 25-0.23 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 42c | 119$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.49 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 35c | 114.52$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 75c | 105.52$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72ad…46f0backed Yes | 49c | 101.89$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 63cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 19c | 101.56$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.01 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3ca…d665backed No | 66c | 100$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 69c | 99.26$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.33 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 27c | 85.89$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.19 | 577 | 47%271 W · 306 L | +40.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 76c | 84.37$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.03 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12f5…5ac4backed Yes | 30c | 82.66$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 112 | 40.2%45 W · 67 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e2…7d4fbacked Yes | 34c | 77.86$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.47 | 485 | 23.7%115 W · 370 L | -18.3wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8808…d288backed Yes | 30c | 75.85$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.76 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 64c | 74.3$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.75 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb39d…7a6dbacked Yes | 30c | 70.86$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.26 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 70c | 68$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.3 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f38…a0edbacked Yes | 30c | 67.01$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 149 | 43.6%65 W · 84 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15e9…dacdbacked Yes | 34c | 63.69$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.37 | 299 | 48.2%144 W · 155 L | +28.2wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 73c | 62.1$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.65 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3e…814abacked Yes | 29c | 61.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.74 | 63 | 50.8%32 W · 31 L | +8.9wins | +0.14per pick | 37cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x42cb…0abdbacked Yes | 34c | 61.1$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.03 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0982…24e3backed Yes | 31c | 60$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 351 | 37.9%133 W · 218 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 28c | 58.76$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.19 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe584…9157backed Yes | 33c | 58.37$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.26 | 245 | 31%76 W · 169 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x784a…06c3backed Yes | 35c | 57.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 340 | 50.6%172 W · 168 L | -10.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2753…e28abacked Yes | 35c | 57.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 420 | 61.2%257 W · 163 L | +19.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3636…34c4backed No | 68c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 292 | 81.5%238 W · 54 L | +27.9wins | +0.10per pick | 72cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc3f7…c14bbacked No | 76c | 49.5$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.88 | 109 | 73.4%80 W · 29 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 72cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d44…997dbacked Yes | 36c | 47.96$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.23 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 72c | 47.82$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.34 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes | 35c | 43.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.39 | 640 | 21.7%139 W · 501 L | -23.6wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 29c | 41.3$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.98 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 66c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.6 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 74c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 70c | 37.66$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.3 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a8…140fbacked Yes | 35c | 37.14$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +2.6wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +44.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 78c | 35$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.7 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 69c | 32$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.92 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ccc…61dfbacked Yes | 38c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 142 | 33.1%47 W · 95 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 73c | 29$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce5…6233backed No | 77c | 25.19$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 135 | 59.3%80 W · 55 L | -7.8wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb692…7c83backed No | 76c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.96 | 117 | 70.9%83 W · 34 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa26f…e9bfbacked No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -3.0wins | -0.13per pick | 61cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 70c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.45 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 80c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.6 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 80c | 12.92$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.64 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 24°C on August 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C on August 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 22°C on August 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 23°C on August 1?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 25°C on August 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.