Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 23°C on August 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa9a7c40466f7dc2e116ceedee099808f47e43b1c88d4898b277230587624b187
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,536
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,138
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,536 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 47c | 1,007$473 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$533.65 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 11c | 752.63$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.65 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 58c | 403.8$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.64 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked Yes | 43c | 376.02$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.33 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e2…7d4fbacked No | 63c | 272.64$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.11 | 485 | 23.7%115 W · 370 L | -18.3wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed No | 15c | 239.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.7 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72ad…46f0backed Yes | 61c | 199.65$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.76 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 63cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 51c | 196.04$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.04 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed No | 28c | 159.24$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.13 | 640 | 21.7%139 W · 501 L | -23.6wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 53c | 148$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.44 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed Yes | 51c | 146$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.54 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 51c | 145.2$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.18 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 27c | 145.11$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.14 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 36c | 135.79$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.1 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 54c | 130.78$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.82 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 24c | 120$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.12 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 41c | 119$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.66 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 54c | 115.62$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.89 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked Yes | 41c | 102.27$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.34 | 429 | 48%206 W · 223 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 49c | 102$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.98 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb4…c6d7backed Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 371 | 50.4%187 W · 184 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes | 64c | 91.98$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.55 | 449 | 45.9%206 W · 243 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 51c | 80.9$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.25 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 45c | 80.03$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.03 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 63c | 78$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.14 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 52c | 78$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.44 | 577 | 47%271 W · 306 L | +40.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 53c | 73.52$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.17 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15e9…dacdbacked Yes | 41c | 73.24$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.21 | 299 | 48.2%144 W · 155 L | +28.2wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x42cb…0abdbacked Yes | 41c | 71.48$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.17 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 61c | 70.53$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.99 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 30c | 65.12$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 40c | 61.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.01 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdd4…6084backed Yes | 49c | 61.25$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.24 | 135 | 34.1%46 W · 89 L | -6.7wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9935…a6b4backed Yes | 41c | 60.98$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.98 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 53c | 60.29$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.16 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 24c | 56.85$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.42 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4d44…997dbacked Yes | 41c | 56.58$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.27 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 48c | 55.73$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.84 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed Yes | 51c | 55.1$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.2 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 43c | 55$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.35 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 45c | 52.58$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.45 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 58c | 50.18$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.99 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed Yes | 40c | 48$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.59 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0aa…3259backed Yes | 51c | 45.75$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.59 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | +3.8wins | +0.12per pick | 57cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 58c | 42.58$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.7 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 48c | 41.18$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.58 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b4d…01c3backed Yes | 54c | 40.93$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.83 | 129 | 39.5%51 W · 78 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 58c | 40$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79d9…9275backed Yes | 79c | 39.2$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.14 | 385 | 60.3%232 W · 153 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d8e…735bbacked Yes | 39c | 38.6$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.55 | 237 | 31.6%75 W · 162 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c65…dcf7backed No | 36c | 38.27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.71 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 52c | 37.37$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.76 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3427…2ff7backed No | 48c | 34.92$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.76 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea5…0b15backed Yes | 43c | 34.79$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.83 | 54 | 38.9%21 W · 33 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 44c | 34.09$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.09 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12f5…5ac4backed Yes | 39c | 33.6$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 112 | 40.2%45 W · 67 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x130b…da9abacked Yes | 39c | 33.6$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 50c | 32$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x186d…8bfebacked Yes | 65c | 31.73$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.03 | 191 | 66.5%127 W · 64 L | +6.9wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 56c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed30…87b1backed Yes | 68c | 29.24$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.24 | 185 | 49.7%92 W · 93 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 41c | 29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.93 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…ba60backed No | 63c | 28$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.72 | 77 | 77.9%60 W · 17 L | +7.8wins | +0.10per pick | 68cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 59c | 25.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.93 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 43c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.25 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x104d…5abbbacked Yes | 54c | 24.74$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.38 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 48c | 24.13$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xed0c…fccdbacked Yes | 66c | 23.14$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.94 | 126 | 60.3%76 W · 50 L | -6.0wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5927…ba9abacked No | 57c | 22.62$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 287 | 62.4%179 W · 108 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05f7…22bcbacked No | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 131 | 67.2%88 W · 43 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5c0…eb75backed No | 55c | 19.35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 54c | 18.83$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.17 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked Yes | 76c | 15.56$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.7 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1073…d8babacked Yes | 75c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 48 | 79.2%38 W · 10 L | +4.6wins | +0.10per pick | 70cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 23°C on August 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C on August 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 22°C on August 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 24°C on August 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 25°C on August 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.