TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Mls · resolved market

Spread: St. Louis City SC (-1.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Sporting Kansas Cityof St. Louis City SC, Sporting Kansas City
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$4,930
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$4,971

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,930 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Mls
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x204f…5e14backed Sporting Kansas City68c1,563$1,063 inWon+$5003,01243.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L-29.7wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-9.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21f5…c161backed St. Louis City SC32c1,563$500 inLost-$5004420.5%9 W · 35 L-5.1wins-0.11per pick32cpaid-23.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed Sporting Kansas City71c617.32$438 inWon+$179.0217740.7%72 W · 105 L-4.1wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-11.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x91fe…c1c6backed St. Louis City SC12c577.71$72 inLost-$71.7638246.1%176 W · 206 L+13.2wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+10.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed Sporting Kansas City70c528.57$370 inWon+$158.574042.5%17 W · 23 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick40cpaid-31.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x224a…a3d5backed St. Louis City SC29c472.82$137 inLost-$137.1212951.2%66 W · 63 L+0.2wins0.00per pick51cpaid-3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa797…dedebacked Sporting Kansas City73c444.42$323 inWon+$120.9914657.5%84 W · 62 L+14.7wins+0.10per pick47cpaid+19.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed St. Louis City SC30c406.97$122 inLost-$122.091,88036.6%688 W · 1,192 L-7.3wins0.00per pick37cpaid-8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed St. Louis City SC29c301.25$87 inLost-$86.791,44436.8%532 W · 912 L-12.0wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-17.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x65b5…aa71backed Sporting Kansas City72c176.25$127 inWon+$49.3514062.1%87 W · 53 L-0.5wins0.00per pick62cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5ad5…37b9backed Sporting Kansas City59c146.42$86 inWon+$60.0310045%45 W · 55 L+18.7wins+0.19per pick26cpaid+97.5%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed St. Louis City SC29c120.33$35 inLost-$34.91,30151.2%666 W · 635 L-19.6wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-3.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xfcc7…4d38backed St. Louis City SC29c111.88$32 inLost-$32.454755.3%26 W · 21 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-11.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed St. Louis City SC27c84.9$23 inLost-$23.081,26245.2%571 W · 691 L-28.1wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-21.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdc41…dd7ebacked Sporting Kansas City71c67$48 inWon+$19.4335550.4%179 W · 176 L+9.0wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-2.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x82fb…0b6ebacked Sporting Kansas City71c60.56$43 inWon+$17.566055%33 W · 27 L+2.8wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed St. Louis City SC29c50.31$15 inLost-$14.5953040.6%215 W · 315 L-2.2wins0.00per pick41cpaid+6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0ac5…f963backed St. Louis City SC29c39.5$11 inLost-$11.4612848.4%62 W · 66 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-8.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Sporting Kansas City73c28.94$21 inWon+$7.7987154.6%476 W · 395 L+34.2wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+4.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb4cd…c041backed Sporting Kansas City75c27.22$20 inWon+$6.863148.4%15 W · 16 L-1.6wins-0.05per pick54cpaid-23.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0d10…780bbacked Sporting Kansas City71c21.13$15 inWon+$6.134146.3%19 W · 22 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-12.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x22da…2866backed Sporting Kansas City71c20.14$14 inWon+$5.8414957.7%86 W · 63 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2c46…dac9backed Sporting Kansas City78c16$12 inWon+$3.5896756.8%549 W · 418 L+73.1wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+12.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x962e…1d75backed Sporting Kansas City71c14.96$11 inWon+$4.342458.3%14 W · 10 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.