Mls · resolved market
Sporting Kansas City vs. St. Louis City SC: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x45af44b7f6c0df50cbef5c1a96bd3c3a99f4b3f4b645e2bdd8132279d53cbced
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,853
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,320
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,853 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa797…dedebacked Over | 19c | 2,567$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.79 | 146 | 57.5%84 W · 62 L | +14.7wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Over | 28c | 1,899$532 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$531.83 | 1,444 | 36.8%532 W · 912 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x191f…4a8dbacked Under | 76c | 1,766$1,342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$423.79 | 146 | 52.1%76 W · 70 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f42…8bbcbacked Over | 35c | 1,629$570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$570 | 190 | 44.7%85 W · 105 L | +9.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Under | 80c | 864$691 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.8 | 526 | 39.5%208 W · 318 L | -11.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91fe…c1c6backed Over | 25c | 801.93$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.27 | 382 | 46.1%176 W · 206 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 24c | 778.44$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.83 | 681 | 50.8%346 W · 335 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 24c | 704.12$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.23 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 65c | 579.49$377 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.63 | 993 | 40.1%398 W · 595 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Over | 40c | 238.08$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.23 | 394 | 35.8%141 W · 253 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Under | 61c | 230.47$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.88 | 734 | 38.1%280 W · 454 L | -7.5wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9900…5cc9backed Under | 56c | 206.88$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.09 | 69 | 44.9%31 W · 38 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ac5…f963backed Under | 59c | 204.71$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.72 | 128 | 48.4%62 W · 66 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Over | 46c | 176.16$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.26 | 362 | 47.2%171 W · 191 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x167a…d542backed Under | 58c | 160.77$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.65 | 73 | 67.1%49 W · 24 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x19d8…965abacked Over | 7c | 160.17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 86 | 24.4%21 W · 65 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 72c | 157.93$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.81 | 530 | 40.6%215 W · 315 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 23c | 155$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.65 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 33c | 104.49$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.7 | 967 | 56.8%549 W · 418 L | +73.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 60c | 102.08$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.83 | 820 | 44.5%365 W · 455 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Under | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 169 | 48.5%82 W · 87 L | -7.6wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba2…d212backed Under | 55c | 89.04$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.25 | 196 | 41.3%81 W · 115 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7629…226cbacked Over | 24c | 83.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.02 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a59…a57ebacked Under | 77c | 78.42$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.92 | 202 | 52%105 W · 97 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed Under | 60c | 71.43$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.57 | 215 | 47.9%103 W · 112 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x633e…d305backed Over | 40c | 71.43$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.57 | 44 | 40.9%18 W · 26 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 79c | 65.38$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.41 | 1,262 | 45.2%571 W · 691 L | -28.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc785…4ef2backed Under | 73c | 51.96$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.2 | 172 | 44.8%77 W · 95 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4a6…c03bbacked Over | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.29per pick | 57cpaid | -60.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6407…d360backed Over | 39c | 51.27$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 71 | 49.3%35 W · 36 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 56c | 35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.4 | 392 | 34.4%135 W · 257 L | -47.2wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -31%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3f…6712backed Over | 42c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 96 | 60.4%58 W · 38 L | +9.4wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Over | 39c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 204 | 49%100 W · 104 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Over | 42c | 27.39$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 239 | 53.6%128 W · 111 L | +14.7wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x76d2…99a6backed Under | 53c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.31per pick | 49cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 65c | 18.94$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.63 | 714 | 43.7%312 W · 402 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Sporting Kansas City vs. St. Louis City SC: O/U 3.5this page
- Sporting Kansas City vs. St. Louis City SC: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- Sporting Kansas City vs. St. Louis City SC: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- Sporting Kansas City vs. St. Louis City SC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Sporting Kansas City vs. St. Louis City SC: O/U 0.5Over won
- Sporting Kansas City vs. St. Louis City SC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Sporting Kansas City vs. St. Louis City SC: O/U 2.5Under won
- Sporting Kansas City vs. St. Louis City SC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Sporting Kansas City vs. St. Louis City SC: O/U 5.5Under won
- Sporting Kansas City vs. St. Louis City SC: Sporting Kansas City O/U 0.5Over won
- Sporting Kansas City vs. St. Louis City SC: Sporting Kansas City O/U 1.5Under won
- Sporting Kansas City vs. St. Louis City SC: Sporting Kansas City O/U 2.5Under won
- Sporting Kansas City vs. St. Louis City SC: St. Louis City SC O/U 0.5Over won
- Sporting Kansas City vs. St. Louis City SC: St. Louis City SC O/U 1.5Under won
- Sporting Kansas City vs. St. Louis City SC: St. Louis City SC O/U 2.5Under won
- Spread: Sporting Kansas City (-1.5)St. Louis City SC won
- Spread: Sporting Kansas City (-2.5)St. Louis City SC won
- Spread: St. Louis City SC (-1.5)Sporting Kansas City won
- Spread: St. Louis City SC (-2.5)Sporting Kansas City won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.