Mls · resolved market
Sporting Kansas City vs. St. Louis City SC: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf86a4a0bce0365daff95f732b87d166dfa16f083388f285881ec22851e86c1dd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,268
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,453
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,268 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x162c…6c47backed Over | 51c | 3,974$2,027 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,026.67 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f15…bdb3backed Under | 49c | 3,181$1,559 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,622.29 | 62 | 50%31 W · 31 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 54c | 2,110$1,135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$974.12 | 1,444 | 36.8%532 W · 912 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 43c | 1,770$770 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,000.31 | 1,880 | 36.6%688 W · 1,192 L | -7.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 50c | 966.6$486 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480.65 | 993 | 40.1%398 W · 595 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91fe…c1c6backed Over | 62c | 840.47$519 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$519.29 | 382 | 46.1%176 W · 206 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 48c | 831.76$399 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$432.38 | 681 | 50.8%346 W · 335 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 51c | 721.05$365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$364.69 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad0b…a514backed Over | 51c | 699.99$357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$357 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | -4.8wins | -0.13per pick | 48cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 53c | 583.72$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.25 | 530 | 40.6%215 W · 315 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Over | 46c | 580.12$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.81 | 362 | 47.2%171 W · 191 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa71d…9854backed Over | 52c | 561.11$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.78 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3d…4d49backed Under | 46c | 510.35$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.67 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1a59…a57ebacked Over | 54c | 276.01$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.04 | 202 | 52%105 W · 97 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5833…4893backed Over | 52c | 250$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 22 | 77.3%17 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 69cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2918…fe4abacked Over | 13c | 229.87$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.88 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 70c | 210.88$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.2 | 714 | 43.7%312 W · 402 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47c2…d39ebacked Over | 52c | 188.67$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.11 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 56cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3e…5a7abacked Over | 32c | 178.21$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.67 | 90 | 70%63 W · 27 L | +11.7wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +24%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Over | 48c | 162.59$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.95 | 802 | 49.8%399 W · 403 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x633e…d305backed Over | 62c | 153.6$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.23 | 44 | 40.9%18 W · 26 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x536e…4fd5backed Over | 52c | 143.83$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.79 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a41…f527backed Over | 52c | 138.88$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.22 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…11a2backed Over | 37c | 133.47$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 92 | 50%46 W · 46 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba2…d212backed Under | 43c | 131.29$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.51 | 196 | 41.3%81 W · 115 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Under | 38c | 117.6$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.91 | 264 | 50%132 W · 132 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd74…bedabacked Over | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe18a…fd87backed Under | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 102 | 43.1%44 W · 58 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd577…c012backed Over | 52c | 94.33$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.05 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7218…ea41backed Over | 52c | 92.59$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.15 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +3.1wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xebf3…50a8backed Over | 52c | 92.59$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.15 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf04b…049abacked Over | 52c | 92.59$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.15 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7f…4c60backed Over | 63c | 82.25$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.82 | 50 | 50%25 W · 25 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ac5…f963backed Under | 68c | 81.08$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.95 | 128 | 48.4%62 W · 66 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Under | 45c | 80.49$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.27 | 196 | 45.9%90 W · 106 L | +10.5wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…e39fbacked Over | 51c | 80$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.46 | 184 | 56.5%104 W · 80 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf5d…df19backed Under | 46c | 76.09$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.09 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +31%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee0…4078backed Under | 79c | 75.95$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.95 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 79cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…61fbbacked Under | 62c | 74.47$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.04 | 134 | 64.9%87 W · 47 L | +17.1wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 49c | 65.89$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.29 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 46c | 55.18$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.18 | 1,262 | 45.2%571 W · 691 L | -28.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4a6…c03bbacked Over | 62c | 48.39$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.29per pick | 57cpaid | -60.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd6…cfdebacked Over | 52c | 46.29$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.07 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 46c | 41.59$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.22 | 287 | 21.6%62 W · 225 L | -29.9wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Over | 51c | 40.6$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.53 | 59 | 66.1%39 W · 20 L | +4.9wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Over | 51c | 40.6$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.53 | 120 | 58.3%70 W · 50 L | +6.7wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae3b…e06ebacked Under | 45c | 40.44$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.24 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +2.7wins | +0.21per pick | 41cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ee…9e81backed Over | 73c | 40$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.2 | 273 | 44.3%121 W · 152 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91c7…808fbacked Over | 28c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 55cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b46…684dbacked Under | 72c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.1wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +121.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x366f…f952backed Over | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1fd…9994backed Over | 52c | 37.73$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.62 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x232f…8002backed Over | 52c | 37.69$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x947d…dff0backed Over | 52c | 37.03$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.26 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10af…2d06backed Over | 52c | 37.03$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.26 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -2.3wins | -0.17per pick | 56cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3654…1b78backed Over | 51c | 34$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 102 | 57.8%59 W · 43 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 70c | 33.7$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.65 | 967 | 56.8%549 W · 418 L | +73.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Over | 45c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 30 | 3.3%1 W · 29 L | -12.3wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -94.4%equal weight | 25-0.22 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Under | 38c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 204 | 49%100 W · 104 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fa1…bf73backed Over | 55c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 102 | 49%50 W · 52 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4359…1260backed Over | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +3.3wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc785…4ef2backed Over | 77c | 28.38$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.78 | 172 | 44.8%77 W · 95 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x256a…8fb4backed Over | 52c | 26.41$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.73 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.19per pick | 51cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Under | 50c | 24.85$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.43 | 109 | 57.8%63 W · 46 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed Under | 51c | 23.6$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.56 | 57 | 59.6%34 W · 23 L | +5.3wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcf27…f35fbacked Over | 52c | 23.08$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x282b…cc76backed Over | 52c | 23.08$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47c9…2038backed Under | 51c | 22.91$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.29 | 92 | 53.3%49 W · 43 L | +7.6wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa146…6163backed Over | 48c | 20.94$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x74de…693fbacked Over | 68c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.6wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Sporting Kansas City vs. St. Louis City SC: O/U 2.5this page
- Sporting Kansas City vs. St. Louis City SC: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- Sporting Kansas City vs. St. Louis City SC: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- Sporting Kansas City vs. St. Louis City SC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Sporting Kansas City vs. St. Louis City SC: O/U 0.5Over won
- Sporting Kansas City vs. St. Louis City SC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Sporting Kansas City vs. St. Louis City SC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Sporting Kansas City vs. St. Louis City SC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Sporting Kansas City vs. St. Louis City SC: O/U 5.5Under won
- Sporting Kansas City vs. St. Louis City SC: Sporting Kansas City O/U 0.5Over won
- Sporting Kansas City vs. St. Louis City SC: Sporting Kansas City O/U 1.5Under won
- Sporting Kansas City vs. St. Louis City SC: Sporting Kansas City O/U 2.5Under won
- Sporting Kansas City vs. St. Louis City SC: St. Louis City SC O/U 0.5Over won
- Sporting Kansas City vs. St. Louis City SC: St. Louis City SC O/U 1.5Under won
- Sporting Kansas City vs. St. Louis City SC: St. Louis City SC O/U 2.5Under won
- Spread: Sporting Kansas City (-1.5)St. Louis City SC won
- Spread: Sporting Kansas City (-2.5)St. Louis City SC won
- Spread: St. Louis City SC (-1.5)Sporting Kansas City won
- Spread: St. Louis City SC (-2.5)Sporting Kansas City won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.