Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 28°C on March 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x82ed4f71526ac51614af44df69dcc8452baddc0a76262fab6b242b4d8e29bbb6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,763
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,763 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 9c | 651.87$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$590.47 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaffc…ce04backed No | 4c | 635.95$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.44 | 38 | 10.5%4 W · 34 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 12c | 592.4$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x98e9…8dbebacked Yes | 9c | 484.17$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$442.79 | 134 | 30.6%41 W · 93 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4262…d125backed Yes | 10c | 479.89$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$430.23 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 56c | 373.54$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.19 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 7c | 299.88$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.89 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32b7…9cfabacked No | 18c | 278.18$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -2.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 11c | 264$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.69 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 5c | 255$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.28 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafd0…a098backed No | 7c | 237.09$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.13 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 16c | 230.72$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.65 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc09…467fbacked Yes | 45c | 227.37$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.46 | 69 | 49.3%34 W · 35 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad62…2aa9backed Yes | 11c | 204$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.97 | 165 | 32.7%54 W · 111 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4a9…75f9backed Yes | 60c | 186.73$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.35 | 262 | 53.4%140 W · 122 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff78…df44backed Yes | 68c | 179.59$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.28 | 66 | 75.8%50 W · 16 L | +16.2wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +76.5%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed Yes | 25c | 179$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.33 | 358 | 43.9%157 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 15c | 168.67$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.67 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…87a9backed Yes | 34c | 165.1$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.98 | 464 | 23.5%109 W · 355 L | +20.7wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a06…15a9backed Yes | 13c | 158.75$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.11 | 567 | 21.3%121 W · 446 L | -25.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4107…c4c5backed Yes | 50c | 140.18$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.79 | 66 | 42.4%28 W · 38 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -19%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 26c | 140$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.15 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 12c | 120.51$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.01 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfced…03d9backed Yes | 18c | 117.02$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.2 | 101 | 41.6%42 W · 59 L | +7.6wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +82%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 35c | 112$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.36 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed No | 11c | 102.93$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.63 | 343 | 19.5%67 W · 276 L | +22.4wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +19%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3df9…2bddbacked Yes | 14c | 99.04$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.47 | 191 | 23.6%45 W · 146 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 37c | 97.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.41 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 53c | 90$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.23 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0645…c08ebacked Yes | 14c | 86.96$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.59 | 63 | 38.1%24 W · 39 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d6…8f66backed No | 40c | 83.92$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.57 | 180 | 52.8%95 W · 85 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8781…88c0backed Yes | 66c | 70.06$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.51 | 325 | 48.6%158 W · 167 L | +11.8wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 16c | 66$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.55 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 22c | 49.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79b6…e042backed No | 32c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 445 | 53.3%237 W · 208 L | -21.2wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 60c | 39.9$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.86 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c8…d7c5backed No | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 241 | 49.8%120 W · 121 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 68c | 34.93$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.82 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 76c | 32.71$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf05b…d0b7backed Yes | 50c | 25.7$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.86 | 296 | 42.9%127 W · 169 L | +19.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1d37…0ef1backed Yes | 62c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.5 | 102 | 58.8%60 W · 42 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fbc…4105backed Yes | 60c | 17.22$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.89 | 337 | 26.4%89 W · 248 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed Yes | 72c | 17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.73 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 72c | 16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 28°C on March 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 24°C or below on March 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 25°C on March 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 26°C on March 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 27°C on March 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 29°C on March 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 30°C on March 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 31°C on March 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.