Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 26°C on March 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x45854c84562957334fc7289ec019f2b3a584ff99b1e030a77ab302109e61eaaa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,935
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,935 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x32b7…9cfabacked Yes | 0c | 19,819$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -2.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4e3c…eba1backed No | 73c | 1,026$752 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.1 | 134 | 53.7%72 W · 62 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 31c | 592$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.88 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 27c | 484.92$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.91 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 29c | 255$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.27 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad62…2aa9backed Yes | 20c | 234$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.49 | 165 | 32.7%54 W · 111 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf393…d509backed No | 78c | 217.59$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.89 | 22 | 100%22 W · 0 L | +9.2wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +94.8%equal weight | 72+0.20 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 67c | 192.39$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.92 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 23c | 168.06$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.3 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefae…3acebacked Yes | 36c | 151.55$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.08 | 268 | 27.2%73 W · 195 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 20c | 150$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa96a…1377backed No | 66c | 149$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.31 | 541 | 43.6%236 W · 305 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes | 29c | 130.06$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.08 | 695 | 20%139 W · 556 L | -44.4wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed Yes | 36c | 120$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.37 | 358 | 43.9%157 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 64c | 114.97$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.82 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8781…88c0backed No | 62c | 110.77$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.53 | 325 | 48.6%158 W · 167 L | +11.8wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 21c | 101.8$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.34 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc33…9636backed No | 61c | 99.99$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 125 | 40%50 W · 75 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed Yes | 16c | 94$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.84 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 22c | 90$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0b9…3377backed No | 60c | 82.64$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.06 | 140 | 71.4%100 W · 40 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4a9…75f9backed Yes | 27c | 81.4$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.68 | 262 | 53.4%140 W · 122 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09c5…9e8abacked Yes | 40c | 74.58$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.56 | 213 | 33.8%72 W · 141 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked No | 70c | 70$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.26 | 575 | 45%259 W · 316 L | +26.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 66c | 57.84$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.87 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 31c | 53.43$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.42 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 30c | 52.91$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.03 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f6f…f5f0backed Yes | 38c | 52.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x293e…9962backed No | 65c | 51.26$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.76 | 157 | 59.2%93 W · 64 L | +12.6wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9d07…6bf3backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 196 | 17.9%35 W · 161 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 70c | 49.62$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.04 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 33c | 49.46$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.51 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 68c | 47.82$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.47 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca5…9ababacked Yes | 25c | 41$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 94 | 34%32 W · 62 L | -10.3wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xca85…fe6cbacked No | 65c | 39.31$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.58 | 222 | 36.5%81 W · 141 L | +10.1wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…37a6backed Yes | 52c | 38.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 409 | 35%143 W · 266 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x505e…1c76backed Yes | 29c | 38.62$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed No | 64c | 33.62$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.27 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87c7…d1b6backed Yes | 42c | 32.8$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.79 | 287 | 37.6%108 W · 179 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0280…ff47backed Yes | 42c | 32.6$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2150…581bbacked Yes | 43c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked No | 62c | 29.52$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.16 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a42…8da8backed No | 60c | 26.96$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.7 | 388 | 40.7%158 W · 230 L | -14.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 79c | 23.15$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.86 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ca6…6e7cbacked No | 63c | 22.86$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.54 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89b5…5aa7backed No | 79c | 18.19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.82 | 162 | 42.6%69 W · 93 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 69c | 17.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.58 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9853…2f25backed No | 79c | 15.18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.19 | 65 | 63.1%41 W · 24 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65a7…ab77backed No | 75c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.8 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 26°C on March 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 24°C or below on March 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 25°C on March 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 27°C on March 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 28°C on March 7?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 29°C on March 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 30°C on March 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 31°C on March 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.