Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 25°C on March 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4ed7cafbd8e5c8b61b71fcdac9f28b0bfd7f94e80c9d67e7425bd798629c5fbb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,227
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,227 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x426a…9ec8backed Yes | 25c | 4,310$1,078 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,077.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x559b…cf74backed No | 75c | 1,490$1,118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$372.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 75cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98ee…46eebacked No | 75c | 1,420$1,065 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$355 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 75cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5ec…3873backed No | 75c | 1,400$1,050 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 19c | 492.04$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.33 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 9c | 299.98$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 24c | 255$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.77 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 77c | 211.25$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.61 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a42…8da8backed Yes | 24c | 180.03$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.27 | 388 | 40.7%158 W · 230 L | -14.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed Yes | 23c | 150.27$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.56 | 522 | 45%235 W · 287 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes | 20c | 147.07$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.08 | 695 | 20%139 W · 556 L | -44.4wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 19c | 140$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.6 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 78c | 124.81$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.64 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x594e…1c11backed No | 79c | 116.49$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.23 | 661 | 44.5%294 W · 367 L | +57.8wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 25c | 101.32$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.14 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefae…3acebacked Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 268 | 27.2%73 W · 195 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4a9…75f9backed Yes | 25c | 81.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 262 | 53.4%140 W · 122 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b66…3907backed Yes | 18c | 74$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 53 | 39.6%21 W · 32 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeed1…c6fbbacked Yes | 14c | 72.14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0b9…3377backed No | 72c | 69.93$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.58 | 140 | 71.4%100 W · 40 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11a4…bba6backed Yes | 20c | 69$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 122 | 23%28 W · 94 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73ff…9ffabacked Yes | 15c | 67$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.38 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +2.6wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +16%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0fd…f0d0backed Yes | 22c | 58.57$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.94 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed Yes | 23c | 54$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.49 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 78c | 52.62$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.58 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed Yes | 20c | 51$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 358 | 43.9%157 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad58…7624backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 542 | 32.3%175 W · 367 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc448…085ebacked Yes | 21c | 49.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 219 | 19.6%43 W · 176 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09c5…9e8abacked Yes | 30c | 49.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 213 | 33.8%72 W · 141 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked No | 73c | 43.07$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.65 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 74c | 40.23$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 77c | 36.86$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.62 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb966…84d5backed No | 79c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 97 | 78.4%76 W · 21 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ad…d00bbacked No | 78c | 28.03$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.17 | 490 | 38.8%190 W · 300 L | +24.4wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed No | 74c | 26.31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.77 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15ea…98e6backed No | 76c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.95 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | -3.2wins | -0.10per pick | 73cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 76c | 23.58$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.67 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1713…10fabacked No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 35 | 71.4%25 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 75cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe839…a758backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf503…39e2backed No | 68c | 18.56$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 79c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.78 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 80c | 16.74$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.38 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f5d…3384backed No | 67c | 15.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 282 | 70.2%198 W · 84 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 25°C on March 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 24°C or below on March 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 26°C on March 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 27°C on March 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 28°C on March 7?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 29°C on March 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 30°C on March 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 31°C on March 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.