Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 27°C on March 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x939bfd779106e56405de534e7c9fe791afe2091f89f36365c00e84b779b76e39
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,573
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,573 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 28c | 688.87$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.83 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 25c | 599.99$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.38 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 7c | 300$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca12…e855backed Yes | 35c | 284.7$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae3…3401backed No | 71c | 263.41$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.33 | 274 | 63.9%175 W · 99 L | -15.0wins | -0.05per pick | 69cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 22c | 255$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.14 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad62…2aa9backed Yes | 26c | 237$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.68 | 165 | 32.7%54 W · 111 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 24c | 235.93$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.74 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 22c | 229.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.2 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf393…d509backed No | 79c | 212.56$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.86 | 22 | 100%22 W · 0 L | +9.2wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +94.8%equal weight | 72+0.20 edge/pick |
| 0x8781…88c0backed Yes | 30c | 169.55$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.93 | 325 | 48.6%158 W · 167 L | +11.8wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1f…1a9fbacked Yes | 23c | 168.36$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.94 | 44 | 15.9%7 W · 37 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed No | 74c | 150.29$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.08 | 522 | 45%235 W · 287 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefae…3acebacked Yes | 20c | 149.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 268 | 27.2%73 W · 195 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 23c | 134.14$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.52 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3b…2eb3backed No | 80c | 130.08$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.11 | 116 | 52.6%61 W · 55 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 11c | 130$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x089b…c619backed No | 77c | 122.71$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.66 | 75 | 76%57 W · 18 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed Yes | 36c | 119$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.02 | 358 | 43.9%157 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a42…8da8backed No | 75c | 114.76$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.84 | 388 | 40.7%158 W · 230 L | -14.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…15c2backed No | 76c | 110$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 173 | 64.7%112 W · 61 L | -10.3wins | -0.06per pick | 71cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x09c5…9e8abacked Yes | 28c | 109.1$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 213 | 33.8%72 W · 141 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…87a9backed Yes | 19c | 109$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.71 | 464 | 23.5%109 W · 355 L | +20.7wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 72c | 104.85$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.15 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 73c | 104.54$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.96 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ad…d00bbacked Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 490 | 38.8%190 W · 300 L | +24.4wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x540f…4bf4backed No | 77c | 97.6$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.6 | 64 | 67.2%43 W · 21 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4a9…75f9backed Yes | 23c | 81.4$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 262 | 53.4%140 W · 122 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 26c | 80$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fbc…4105backed Yes | 27c | 75.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 337 | 26.4%89 W · 248 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99cb…4bc2backed No | 78c | 74.63$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.24 | 52 | 57.7%30 W · 22 L | -5.6wins | -0.11per pick | 68cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1b22…8945backed No | 74c | 72.94$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.1 | 253 | 41.5%105 W · 148 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 72c | 72.82$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.34 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 77c | 72.59$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.67 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 20c | 70$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes | 23c | 67.49$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 695 | 20%139 W · 556 L | -44.4wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 26c | 66.09$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x479e…56cabacked No | 79c | 62.5$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.12 | 64 | 46.9%30 W · 34 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc0b9…3377backed No | 80c | 62.11$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.42 | 140 | 71.4%100 W · 40 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0a…bb29backed Yes | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 114 | 25.4%29 W · 85 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0514…4fefbacked Yes | 26c | 60$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 195 | 31.3%61 W · 134 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c69…4622backed No | 59c | 54.95$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.77 | 562 | 65.5%368 W · 194 L | +35.2wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1600…9236backed Yes | 28c | 53$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.69 | 354 | 32.5%115 W · 239 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2205…8089backed No | 78c | 44.62$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.62 | 290 | 56.2%163 W · 127 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 67c | 42.7$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.16 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 24c | 42.14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed No | 66c | 41.9$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.25 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e3c…eba1backed No | 77c | 38.49$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.04 | 134 | 53.7%72 W · 62 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89b5…5aa7backed No | 80c | 37.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 162 | 42.6%69 W · 93 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 76c | 36.62$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87c7…d1b6backed Yes | 41c | 36.2$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.84 | 287 | 37.6%108 W · 179 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 62c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9770…d57dbacked No | 78c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.55 | 486 | 72%350 W · 136 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2150…581bbacked Yes | 43c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x15ea…98e6backed No | 78c | 28$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.13 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | -3.2wins | -0.10per pick | 73cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf618…6a90backed No | 79c | 25.19$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.19 | 58 | 58.6%34 W · 24 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 74c | 25.13$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.51 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac10…35d3backed No | 65c | 23.15$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.15 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 65cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 74c | 20.67$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.44 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb68…ac20backed No | 76c | 18.47$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.43 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b9e…154abacked No | 60c | 17.94$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.14 | 46 | 71.7%33 W · 13 L | +3.5wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked No | 63c | 16.14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.93 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3b…1c9abacked No | 77c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.45 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.42per pick | 75cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 27°C on March 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 24°C or below on March 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 25°C on March 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 26°C on March 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 28°C on March 7?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 29°C on March 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 30°C on March 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 31°C on March 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.