Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 23°C on May 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x82f2407a366a135fee35951ed224c4e3026705d50e0214320f3fc6ca2cb8e660
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,262
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,456
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,262 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x182a…f847backed Yes | 79c | 1,122$887 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.74 | 187 | 62.6%117 W · 70 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 30c | 332.49$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.31 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9006…9fb8backed Yes | 14c | 182.75$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.79 | 270 | 37.4%101 W · 169 L | +12.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 64c | 179.96$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.91 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe092…dbb3backed No | 74c | 169.83$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.13 | 62 | 25.8%16 W · 46 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 37c | 154.4$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.71 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 20c | 150$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.18 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb25e…a93bbacked Yes | 17c | 140.71$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.16 | 234 | 36.3%85 W · 149 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd802…d766backed No | 42c | 129.69$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 306 | 64.1%196 W · 110 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 12c | 120.22$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.92 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 40c | 117.53$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.66 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 57c | 117.24$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.3 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed No | 51c | 98.72$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.02 | 769 | 24.3%187 W · 582 L | -16.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0e…8337backed Yes | 26c | 76.49$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.49 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf43…66f5backed Yes | 14c | 76.28$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.5 | 102 | 34.3%35 W · 67 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 35c | 75.22$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.27 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 79c | 74.98$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.11 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe018…a22dbacked No | 19c | 69.1$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.31 | 90 | 58.9%53 W · 37 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 20c | 68.17$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.63 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 53c | 67.11$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.34 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 60$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 34c | 56.48$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.39 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 30c | 54$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.65 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe849…758bbacked Yes | 20c | 52.93$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.42 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c8d…84afbacked Yes | 48c | 41.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.71 | 68 | 54.4%37 W · 31 L | -5.0wins | -0.07per pick | 62cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 41c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14da…0af1backed Yes | 79c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.32 | 119 | 26.1%31 W · 88 L | -6.6wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -27%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed No | 52c | 39.71$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.65 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…abffbacked Yes | 48c | 38.55$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.97 | 306 | 65%199 W · 107 L | +14.5wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 62c | 38.47$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.04 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2cff…468bbacked Yes | 39c | 35.89$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.07 | 162 | 63%102 W · 60 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bd0…046fbacked No | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 253 | 35.2%89 W · 164 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed Yes | 48c | 29.04$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.21 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 68c | 29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5848…1e49backed No | 63c | 28$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.64 | 863 | 62.9%543 W · 320 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6192…48efbacked Yes | 70c | 26.56$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.97 | 88 | 56.8%50 W · 38 L | -5.0wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked Yes | 79c | 23.17$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.81 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 74c | 21.85$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.23 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xe978…ab29backed Yes | 72c | 20.81$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.92 | 65 | 63.1%41 W · 24 L | +4.9wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 23°C on May 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 22°C on May 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C on May 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C on May 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on May 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on May 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C or higher on May 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.