Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C or below on July 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x82f85293bc2815220969de918814f6fda27ccfce7e420df662f1eec63b69a83f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $39,738
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $41,948
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,738 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 7c | 2,514$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.27 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17e0…fe5bbacked Yes | 33c | 2,304$756 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$755.96 | 310 | 43.2%134 W · 176 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea2…665abacked Yes | 4c | 2,153$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.74 | 394 | 27.4%108 W · 286 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd970…932abacked Yes | 1c | 1,100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 89 | 20.2%18 W · 71 L | +6.1wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3f0…5cd7backed Yes | 3c | 584.88$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.86 | 62 | 8.1%5 W · 57 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -75.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26b1…cc81backed Yes | 36c | 539.16$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.58 | 234 | 29.1%68 W · 166 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 4c | 476.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.05 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41f6…828ebacked Yes | 6c | 440.23$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.19 | 451 | 30.8%139 W · 312 L | +33.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1077…e6e9backed Yes | 3c | 420.8$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.19 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 7c | 382.39$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.25 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf421…efcebacked Yes | 12c | 334.58$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.81 | 428 | 20.1%86 W · 342 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc90d…c9d2backed No | 75c | 334.38$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.06 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -14%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 7c | 320.96$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.3 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b50…c9babacked No | 80c | 288.89$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.87 | 451 | 48.6%219 W · 232 L | +21.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f9…9ab0backed Yes | 33c | 265.37$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.14 | 138 | 38.4%53 W · 85 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed Yes | 7c | 247.41$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 570 | 44.9%256 W · 314 L | +36.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 15c | 219.42$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.93 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 6c | 218.71$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.92 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 6c | 218.53$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.26 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0eee…74e8backed Yes | 18c | 199.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.5 | 400 | 25.5%102 W · 298 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4940…e353backed Yes | 36c | 150$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.61 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -21%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e2…7d4fbacked Yes | 16c | 140.46$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.07 | 485 | 23.7%115 W · 370 L | -18.3wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb04…48cfbacked Yes | 12c | 113.04$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.89 | 100 | 23%23 W · 77 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ddb…3fa9backed Yes | 14c | 109$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.15 | 313 | 19.2%60 W · 253 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2868…9b6bbacked Yes | 18c | 105.36$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.73 | 165 | 43.6%72 W · 93 L | +9.5wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb33…19d9backed Yes | 10c | 97.59$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 64 | 37.5%24 W · 40 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2f…f9babacked Yes | 33c | 88.2$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.84 | 165 | 32.1%53 W · 112 L | -9.4wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1fd2…b7f8backed Yes | 40c | 82.72$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.91 | 270 | 47%127 W · 143 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…8e3cbacked Yes | 29c | 76.59$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.9 | 78 | 62.8%49 W · 29 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5787…1f86backed Yes | 30c | 67.23$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 235 | 60%141 W · 94 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadb0…1c8cbacked Yes | 19c | 65.23$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.62 | 541 | 43.1%233 W · 308 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 76c | 64.97$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.28 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 65c | 57.3$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.09 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 78c | 52.13$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.46 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed No | 71c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.45 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9a4…dbc9backed Yes | 33c | 42.88$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.09 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -24%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 68c | 34.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.16 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4e…5ac9backed No | 71c | 34.87$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.28 | 214 | 72%154 W · 60 L | +7.9wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6118…7167backed No | 70c | 28.31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.52 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -33%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b7…c718backed No | 71c | 28.19$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.19 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbefc…58febacked No | 73c | 20.68$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.68 | 65 | 64.6%42 W · 23 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c33…f910backed No | 64c | 20.44$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.44 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5076…e15dbacked No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.08 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C or below on July 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on July 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on July 13?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on July 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on July 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on July 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on July 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.