Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on July 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x986063acd1c55812e3e381447235d7ae7d717cbd5163f1b86338a10f13b37e3b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,573
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,428
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,573 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 138 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x17e0…fe5bbacked Yes | 53c | 4,346$2,321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,025.56 | 310 | 43.2%134 W · 176 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 25c | 1,603$406 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$406.16 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 34c | 1,046$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360.21 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 70c | 843.88$588 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$587.8 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea2…665abacked Yes | 36c | 821.06$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$521.4 | 394 | 27.4%108 W · 286 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41f6…828ebacked Yes | 72c | 771.11$556 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.84 | 451 | 30.8%139 W · 312 L | +33.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 56c | 697.73$388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$388.16 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 39c | 466.64$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.06 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f9…9ab0backed Yes | 54c | 457.74$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.58 | 138 | 38.4%53 W · 85 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 24c | 451.43$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.21 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 52c | 422.61$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.51 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 38c | 420$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.15 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 23c | 411.72$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$317.67 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1fd2…b7f8backed Yes | 50c | 408.82$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.65 | 270 | 47%127 W · 143 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 64c | 339$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.31 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed Yes | 56c | 312.73$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.06 | 570 | 44.9%256 W · 314 L | +36.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 76c | 312.08$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.21 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2dbd…3b5abacked Yes | 54c | 297.74$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.74 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ccc…61dfbacked Yes | 27c | 293.58$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.58 | 142 | 33.1%47 W · 95 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2868…9b6bbacked Yes | 32c | 293.2$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.82 | 165 | 43.6%72 W · 93 L | +9.5wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0036…df65backed No | 67c | 254.67$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.14 | 197 | 37.1%73 W · 124 L | -10.3wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f88…cdcbbacked Yes | 55c | 252.19$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.62 | 65 | 33.8%22 W · 43 L | -4.7wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3f…8af6backed No | 21c | 251.43$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.8 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ddb…3fa9backed Yes | 31c | 206.5$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.05 | 313 | 19.2%60 W · 253 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x579d…247cbacked Yes | 25c | 205.55$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.78 | 77 | 29.9%23 W · 54 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…9eedbacked Yes | 28c | 200$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144 | 157 | 17.2%27 W · 130 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2f…f9babacked Yes | 51c | 193.14$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.12 | 165 | 32.1%53 W · 112 L | -9.4wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2429…02d9backed No | 47c | 190.83$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.9 | 177 | 47.5%84 W · 93 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb8c…23c8backed No | 70c | 188.53$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.12 | 77 | 62.3%48 W · 29 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…6a89backed Yes | 39c | 185.37$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.93 | 384 | 54.9%211 W · 173 L | +26.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x302c…abcebacked Yes | 35c | 185$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.01 | 167 | 24.6%41 W · 126 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ddb…0c47backed No | 74c | 155.76$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.97 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 63cpaid | -40%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c56…6e66backed Yes | 25c | 130.91$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.3 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8251…879dbacked Yes | 53c | 130.52$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.79 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 65c | 126.65$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.69 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a88…f471backed Yes | 39c | 123.85$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.77 | 297 | 32.3%96 W · 201 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 26c | 123.08$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.08 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 35c | 122.64$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.82 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 73c | 116.17$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.6 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 24c | 115.76$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.68 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 56c | 115.53$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.77 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 24c | 113.76$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.43 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8798…76cebacked No | 67c | 113.7$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.68 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 39c | 113.65$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.41 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf225…42e0backed No | 72c | 112.13$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.78 | 119 | 47.1%56 W · 63 L | +8.2wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 57c | 110.75$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.39 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 75c | 108.37$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.97 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd1e…862ebacked No | 56c | 106.27$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.39 | 87 | 27.6%24 W · 63 L | -10.0wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf743…63e1backed Yes | 24c | 102.2$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.2 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 29c | 100.73$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.28 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f4…3fdbbacked Yes | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 273 | 35.9%98 W · 175 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05e1…4c1ebacked No | 79c | 98.64$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.44 | 496 | 75.4%374 W · 122 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed Yes | 48c | 97.82$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.77 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 32c | 91$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.7 | 577 | 47%271 W · 306 L | +40.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 73c | 86.46$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.27 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 23c | 80.64$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.09 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2797…9bc0backed No | 42c | 80$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.6 | 181 | 42.5%77 W · 104 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 61c | 78.99$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.97 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 51c | 78.08$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.1 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked No | 77c | 76$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.52 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc5…d6b7backed No | 65c | 76$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.1 | 274 | 61.7%169 W · 105 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec3…a081backed Yes | 26c | 73$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.34 | 175 | 24.6%43 W · 132 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38f2…8690backed Yes | 55c | 72.96$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.96 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 23c | 70.72$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.33 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x685f…2b3bbacked Yes | 28c | 70.69$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.69 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0754…a576backed Yes | 31c | 70$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.28 | 164 | 37.2%61 W · 103 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6e6…40aebacked Yes | 51c | 70$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 75 | 40%30 W · 45 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6606…0195backed Yes | 35c | 70$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.5 | 176 | 44.3%78 W · 98 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d10…a713backed Yes | 24c | 67.01$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.61 | 143 | 32.2%46 W · 97 L | +14.7wins | +0.10per pick | 22cpaid | +81.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed No | 49c | 66.78$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.82 | 590 | 21.7%128 W · 462 L | -24.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9210…70a4backed Yes | 26c | 66.58$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.27 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38a7…d69dbacked No | 59c | 64.75$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.28 | 235 | 49.4%116 W · 119 L | -12.8wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3b72…ec52backed Yes | 31c | 64.6$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.6 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.30per pick | 45cpaid | +79%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa967…79a5backed Yes | 55c | 63.58$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.52 | 80 | 50%40 W · 40 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 58c | 62.85$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.27 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 65c | 61.82$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.48 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x896e…b02abacked Yes | 49c | 61.68$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.68 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaebd…a26fbacked Yes | 26c | 60$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.7 | 57 | 42.1%24 W · 33 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5652…2aa5backed No | 69c | 58.2$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.06 | 161 | 57.1%92 W · 69 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 60c | 56.79$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.25 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5af3…1534backed Yes | 36c | 55.56$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.56 | 68 | 54.4%37 W · 31 L | +4.5wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked Yes | 55c | 55.24$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.86 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f24…64b5backed No | 64c | 54$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.74 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 42c | 53.88$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.35 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf216…4844backed Yes | 43c | 51.36$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.34 | 272 | 46.3%126 W · 146 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb139…29a1backed Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 50 | 46%23 W · 27 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e2…7d4fbacked Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.5 | 485 | 23.7%115 W · 370 L | -18.3wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 55c | 48.49$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.61 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca9…fe9cbacked Yes | 25c | 48.25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.06 | 46 | 28.3%13 W · 33 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 46c | 48.21$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.39 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 73c | 48$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.07 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 63c | 47.66$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.14 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 67c | 47$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.59 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0751…073abacked Yes | 24c | 45.9$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.88 | 192 | 55.2%106 W · 86 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19ca…59eebacked No | 35c | 44.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.46 | 57 | 29.8%17 W · 40 L | -11.6wins | -0.20per pick | 50cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x89f4…6950backed Yes | 29c | 44.2$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.3 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 66c | 42.48$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.04 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9a4…dbc9backed Yes | 39c | 42.15$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.8 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -24%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 53c | 40.25$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.19 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on July 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C or below on July 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on July 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on July 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on July 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on July 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on July 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.