Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on July 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe9e54dcd47ab6f70989425ba3efc690c1bd9acc2d1da1d5ecac688f5237fbb1e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,341
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,790
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,341 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 107 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcd1e…862ebacked Yes | 16c | 1,473$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.92 | 87 | 27.6%24 W · 63 L | -10.0wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea2…665abacked Yes | 13c | 1,100$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.21 | 394 | 27.4%108 W · 286 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 7c | 899.5$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.95 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 77c | 733$564 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.38 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 50c | 697.11$346 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350.72 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x579d…247cbacked Yes | 4c | 652.6$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.04 | 77 | 29.9%23 W · 54 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17e0…fe5bbacked Yes | 50c | 582.74$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.15 | 310 | 43.2%134 W · 176 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3f…8af6backed Yes | 20c | 500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 28c | 444.47$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.68 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 12c | 437.69$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.43 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 76c | 380.82$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.64 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 54c | 369.22$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.21 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c48…6b72backed Yes | 28c | 361.85$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 452 | 38.5%174 W · 278 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 77c | 338$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.33 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20ff…4008backed Yes | 6c | 327$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.89 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe820…9f12backed Yes | 9c | 300.63$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 20cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 4c | 299.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe62c…adc5backed No | 56c | 284.68$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.16 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f88…cdcbbacked Yes | 18c | 277.9$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.77 | 65 | 33.8%22 W · 43 L | -4.7wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5ddb…3fa9backed Yes | 9c | 257$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.43 | 313 | 19.2%60 W · 253 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 13c | 211.88$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.84 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 49c | 206.05$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.2 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…9eedbacked Yes | 8c | 199.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 157 | 17.2%27 W · 130 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb8c…23c8backed No | 63c | 193.18$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.23 | 77 | 62.3%48 W · 29 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 13c | 187.89$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.64 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe44…5d00backed Yes | 12c | 180$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.45 | 103 | 45.6%47 W · 56 L | -8.3wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 33c | 170.12$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddc3…000bbacked Yes | 48c | 165.78$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 98 | 32.7%32 W · 66 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x476e…00a9backed Yes | 50c | 163.14$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.87 | 93 | 45.2%42 W · 51 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d9…ec8abacked Yes | 10c | 143.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.65 | 156 | 30.8%48 W · 108 L | +8.9wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0036…df65backed Yes | 44c | 142.85$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.26 | 197 | 37.1%73 W · 124 L | -10.3wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6c56…6e66backed Yes | 48c | 141.63$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.9 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 50c | 136.84$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.08 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 52c | 132.45$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.12 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 27c | 130.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.37 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2868…9b6bbacked Yes | 11c | 125.93$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.22 | 165 | 43.6%72 W · 93 L | +9.5wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 58c | 123.46$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.81 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 42c | 122.77$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.93 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c46backed No | 67c | 121.06$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.58 | 352 | 64.8%228 W · 124 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 68c | 120.31$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.43 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 80c | 115.9$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.42 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Yes | 12c | 115.06$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.92 | 590 | 21.7%128 W · 462 L | -24.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 52c | 107.92$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.1 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 74c | 107.88$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.96 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…6a89backed Yes | 53c | 105.75$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.55 | 384 | 54.9%211 W · 173 L | +26.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x82d8…03eabacked Yes | 16c | 105.05$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.81 | 116 | 12.1%14 W · 102 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2dbd…3b5abacked Yes | 48c | 104.6$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf33c…488cbacked Yes | 49c | 102.03$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.59 | 102 | 44.1%45 W · 57 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.39 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 51c | 98.7$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.4 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38f2…8690backed Yes | 47c | 96.49$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7efd…caedbacked Yes | 15c | 95.93$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.09 | 170 | 25.3%43 W · 127 L | -11.7wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 14c | 89$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.06 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf743…63e1backed Yes | 33c | 88.48$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaebd…a26fbacked Yes | 26c | 88.11$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.58 | 57 | 42.1%24 W · 33 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e18…ad5bbacked Yes | 17c | 83.34$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.16 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 52c | 82.95$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.99 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa054…a95dbacked No | 68c | 81.41$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.66 | 399 | 66.2%264 W · 135 L | +33.6wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes | 17c | 81$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.53 | 449 | 45.9%206 W · 243 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0081…947bbacked No | 53c | 80.75$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.18 | 316 | 49.7%157 W · 159 L | +17.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x947a…cd42backed Yes | 53c | 75.47$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +3.5wins | +0.16per pick | 38cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 15c | 73.15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.06 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f9…9ab0backed Yes | 50c | 69.89$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.06 | 138 | 38.4%53 W · 85 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9210…70a4backed Yes | 41c | 69.1$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.66 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ecc…c745backed No | 47c | 68.3$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.1 | 179 | 47.5%85 W · 94 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 80c | 61.92$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.47 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 68c | 61.82$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 77c | 60.98$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.21 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65c7…e100backed Yes | 37c | 60$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.46 | 227 | 44.1%100 W · 127 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 42c | 58$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.49 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 75c | 56.7$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.28 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x27a0…cecdbacked Yes | 44c | 52.13$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.7 | 33 | 15.2%5 W · 28 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 55c | 50.65$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.79 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 49c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f9…8d24backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 477 | 38.8%185 W · 292 L | +18.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7406…162bbacked Yes | 55c | 49.45$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.2 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 69c | 45.26$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.83 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed No | 68c | 44.16$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.16 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x98e1…61babacked No | 47c | 41.26$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.87 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +2.3wins | +0.21per pick | 61cpaid | +45.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6db9…de16backed No | 47c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.2 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +3.6wins | +0.32per pick | 49cpaid | +78.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x685f…2b3bbacked Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 58c | 39.92$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.62 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a89…de7dbacked Yes | 44c | 37.82$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 83 | 56.6%47 W · 36 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1854…2106backed Yes | 56c | 33.32$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.64 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0751…073abacked No | 56c | 33.05$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.59 | 192 | 55.2%106 W · 86 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0c1…da4bbacked Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -2.5wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2797…9bc0backed No | 47c | 31.16$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.46 | 181 | 42.5%77 W · 104 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb80a…6163backed Yes | 46c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 71c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.85 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcef6…2adebacked Yes | 40c | 29.87$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.03 | 259 | 47.1%122 W · 137 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2f…f9babacked Yes | 52c | 29.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 165 | 32.1%53 W · 112 L | -9.4wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0428…7d12backed Yes | 39c | 28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 301 | 36.9%111 W · 190 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd2d…0ef3backed Yes | 41c | 28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.48 | 114 | 46.5%53 W · 61 L | -6.3wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7de4…554cbacked Yes | 46c | 25.31$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d70…cc5ebacked No | 47c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.25 | 156 | 66%103 W · 53 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca9…fe9cbacked No | 58c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 46 | 28.3%13 W · 33 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf424…6e3ebacked No | 61c | 24.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.59 | 62 | 66.1%41 W · 21 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c84…593ebacked Yes | 50c | 24.48$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.36 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf794…aba2backed No | 51c | 22.01$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.73 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on July 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C or below on July 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on July 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on July 13?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on July 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on July 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on July 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.