TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on July 13?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$25,341
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$21,790

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,341 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 107 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xcd1e…862ebacked Yes16c1,473$238 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$237.928727.6%24 W · 63 L-10.0wins-0.11per pick39cpaid-54.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x9ea2…665abacked Yes13c1,100$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.2139427.4%108 W · 286 L0.0wins0.00per pick27cpaid-4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaa28…090bbacked Yes7c899.5$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.952,23915%335 W · 1,904 L+54.6wins+0.02per pick13cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No77c733$564 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$169.385,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No50c697.11$346 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$350.7212,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x579d…247cbacked Yes4c652.6$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.047729.9%23 W · 54 L+0.3wins0.00per pick29cpaid+18.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x17e0…fe5bbacked Yes50c582.74$293 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$293.1531043.2%134 W · 176 L+9.9wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4a3f…8af6backed Yes20c500$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1003246.9%15 W · 17 L-1.9wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-31.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed Yes28c444.47$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.685,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked Yes12c437.69$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.432,21420.7%458 W · 1,756 L-60.8wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-25.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No76c380.82$288 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.644,26753.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L+156.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed No54c369.22$198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$171.2110,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7c48…6b72backed Yes28c361.85$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10045238.5%174 W · 278 L-14.1wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No77c338$261 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.334,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x20ff…4008backed Yes6c327$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.89137.7%1 W · 12 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick6cpaid-6.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe820…9f12backed Yes9c300.63$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28933.3%3 W · 6 L+1.2wins+0.13per pick20cpaid-4.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6bee…7e78backed Yes4c299.99$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131,07623.5%253 W · 823 L+69.1wins+0.06per pick17cpaid+14.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe62c…adc5backed No56c284.68$159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.161275%9 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick69cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3f88…cdcbbacked Yes18c277.9$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.776533.8%22 W · 43 L-4.7wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-29.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5ddb…3fa9backed Yes9c257$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.4331319.2%60 W · 253 L+4.9wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes13c211.88$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.844,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xfd36…a832backed Yes49c206.05$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.265043.4%282 W · 368 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfa01…9eedbacked Yes8c199.99$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1715717.2%27 W · 130 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick14cpaid-6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdb8c…23c8backed No63c193.18$121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.237762.3%48 W · 29 L0.0wins0.00per pick62cpaid-5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes13c187.89$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.643,85923.4%903 W · 2,956 L+128.4wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbe44…5d00backed Yes12c180$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.4510345.6%47 W · 56 L-8.3wins-0.08per pick54cpaid-23.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe7db…959bbacked Yes33c170.12$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$561,01825.5%260 W · 758 L-11.7wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-19.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xddc3…000bbacked Yes48c165.78$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$809832.7%32 W · 66 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-1.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x476e…00a9backed Yes50c163.14$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.879345.2%42 W · 51 L-2.8wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-6.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa1d9…ec8abacked Yes10c143.71$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.6515630.8%48 W · 108 L+8.9wins+0.06per pick25cpaid+6.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0036…df65backed Yes44c142.85$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.2619737.1%73 W · 124 L-10.3wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-17.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6c56…6e66backed Yes48c141.63$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.95349.1%26 W · 27 L+3.5wins+0.07per pick42cpaid+13.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No50c136.84$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.083,64265.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L+33.6wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed No52c132.45$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.127,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes27c130.99$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.3791444.7%409 W · 505 L+16.7wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2868…9b6bbacked Yes11c125.93$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.2216543.6%72 W · 93 L+9.5wins+0.06per pick38cpaid-3.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6dc3…3472backed No58c123.46$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.8160054.2%325 W · 275 L-18.0wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-8.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7956…eba5backed Yes42c122.77$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.931,04838.1%399 W · 649 L-3.8wins0.00per pick38cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ae4…7c46backed No67c121.06$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.5835264.8%228 W · 124 L+4.3wins+0.01per pick64cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc6d8…b90dbacked No68c120.31$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.4383459.8%499 W · 335 L+27.5wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+6.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4e72…ffb9backed No80c115.9$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.422,10256.5%1,188 W · 914 L+61.4wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd035…f165backed Yes12c115.06$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.9259021.7%128 W · 462 L-24.2wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-40.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No52c107.92$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.14,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No74c107.88$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.963,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8ddb…6a89backed Yes53c105.75$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.5538454.9%211 W · 173 L+26.3wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+11.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x82d8…03eabacked Yes16c105.05$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.8111612.1%14 W · 102 L-3.4wins-0.03per pick15cpaid-31.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2dbd…3b5abacked Yes48c104.6$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501637.5%6 W · 10 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-32.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf33c…488cbacked Yes49c102.03$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.5910244.1%45 W · 57 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-6.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5f3e…5337backed Yes31c100$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.3981848.5%397 W · 421 L+6.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No51c98.7$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.41,58661.9%982 W · 604 L+20.2wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x38f2…8690backed Yes47c96.49$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$453658.3%21 W · 15 L+2.1wins+0.06per pick52cpaid-1.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7efd…caedbacked Yes15c95.93$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.0917025.3%43 W · 127 L-11.7wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-31.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes14c89$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.066,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf743…63e1backed Yes33c88.48$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$292846.4%13 W · 15 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+24.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaebd…a26fbacked Yes26c88.11$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.585742.1%24 W · 33 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5e18…ad5bbacked Yes17c83.34$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.1690%0 W · 9 L-1.5wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xec62…9191backed Yes52c82.95$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.991,10240.7%448 W · 654 L+18.7wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa054…a95dbacked No68c81.41$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.6639966.2%264 W · 135 L+33.6wins+0.08per pick58cpaid+20.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes17c81$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.5344945.9%206 W · 243 L+10.2wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0081…947bbacked No53c80.75$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.1831649.7%157 W · 159 L+17.5wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-3.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x947a…cd42backed Yes53c75.47$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$402254.5%12 W · 10 L+3.5wins+0.16per pick38cpaid+10.2%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes15c73.15$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.062,09056.7%1,186 W · 904 L+60.1wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe4f9…9ab0backed Yes50c69.89$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.0613838.4%53 W · 85 L-3.8wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-21.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9210…70a4backed Yes41c69.1$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.663429.4%10 W · 24 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick34cpaid+16.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0ecc…c745backed No47c68.3$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.117947.5%85 W · 94 L+5.0wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb2e4…b7f1backed No80c61.92$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.472,06556.3%1,163 W · 902 L+56.7wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3d1d…9e61backed No68c61.82$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$202,87064.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L-32.8wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1f85…7b02backed No77c60.98$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.212,06855.9%1,156 W · 912 L+44.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x65c7…e100backed Yes37c60$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.4622744.1%100 W · 127 L+6.2wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+7.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes42c58$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.492,67430%803 W · 1,871 L+5.4wins0.00per pick30cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x16c7…22cdbacked No75c56.7$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.282,07558.9%1,223 W · 852 L+102.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+0.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x27a0…cecdbacked Yes44c52.13$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.73315.2%5 W · 28 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick19cpaid-30.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcdbc…bd73backed No55c50.65$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.7991861.5%565 W · 353 L+1.6wins0.00per pick61cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes49c50$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.53,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc4f9…8d24backed Yes22c50$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1147738.8%185 W · 292 L+18.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+11.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7406…162bbacked Yes55c49.45$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.21450%7 W · 7 L-2.0wins-0.15per pick65cpaid-24.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x69f0…fb27backed No69c45.26$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.832,11858.2%1,233 W · 885 L+78.8wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa2ed…9d98backed No68c44.16$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.1682268.7%565 W · 257 L+72.3wins+0.09per pick60cpaid+17.4%equal weight59+0.09 edge/pick
0x98e1…61babacked No47c41.26$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.871181.8%9 W · 2 L+2.3wins+0.21per pick61cpaid+45.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6db9…de16backed No47c40$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.21181.8%9 W · 2 L+3.6wins+0.32per pick49cpaid+78.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x685f…2b3bbacked Yes50c40$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201241.7%5 W · 7 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4f1d…8de2backed No58c39.92$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.621,54360.5%934 W · 609 L-19.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a89…de7dbacked Yes44c37.82$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.88356.6%47 W · 36 L+3.9wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+10.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1854…2106backed Yes56c33.32$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.64944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.09per pick53cpaid-10.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0751…073abacked No56c33.05$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.5919255.2%106 W · 86 L+6.6wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+10%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf0c1…da4bbacked Yes32c31.25$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102630.8%8 W · 18 L-2.5wins-0.10per pick40cpaid-9.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2797…9bc0backed No47c31.16$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.4618142.5%77 W · 104 L-4.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5c38…f194backed No54c30$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.82,51747.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L+52.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb80a…6163backed Yes46c30$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.84339.5%17 W · 26 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-20.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xedbd…dd60backed No71c30$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.853,30165%2,147 W · 1,154 L-38.5wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcef6…2adebacked Yes40c29.87$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.0325947.1%122 W · 137 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5e2f…f9babacked Yes52c29.14$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.1216532.1%53 W · 112 L-9.4wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-19.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0428…7d12backed Yes39c28$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.9230136.9%111 W · 190 L-8.5wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-6.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbd2d…0ef3backed Yes41c28$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.4811446.5%53 W · 61 L-6.3wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-21.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7de4…554cbacked Yes46c25.31$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.5610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8d70…cc5ebacked No47c25$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.2515666%103 W · 53 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick65cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2ca9…fe9cbacked No58c25$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.54628.3%13 W · 33 L-2.9wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-27.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf424…6e3ebacked No61c24.59$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.596266.1%41 W · 21 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-4.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8c84…593ebacked Yes50c24.48$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.361145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick40cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf794…aba2backed No51c22.01$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.732152.4%11 W · 10 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-24.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.