Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Utah State Aggies vs. Villanova Wildcats: O/U 146.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x83052eec3a1209bc128aa2ff60cbcddddeee8eab839d57c67c7b06f28e9cfe48
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,128
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,128 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd26e…6d8dbacked Over | 53c | 10,296$5,457 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,839 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 48c | 7,963$3,783 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,783.43 | 2,896 | 50%1,448 W · 1,448 L | +71.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf28e…cab2backed Under | 50c | 4,600$2,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,300.06 | 216 | 36.1%78 W · 138 L | -10.4wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 52c | 3,088$1,596 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,492.17 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb43…3c74backed Under | 49c | 3,000$1,470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,469.99 | 285 | 39.6%113 W · 172 L | -14.4wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c83…cf0abacked Over | 50c | 1,314$657 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$656.9 | 133 | 43.6%58 W · 75 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d66…22d1backed Over | 53c | 1,289$680 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$608.79 | 74 | 50%37 W · 37 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 51c | 894.07$455 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$439.51 | 187 | 44.9%84 W · 103 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7248…8cb4backed Under | 48c | 873.16$419 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$419.12 | 163 | 41.7%68 W · 95 L | -9.2wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe864…ce58backed Under | 48c | 865.47$415 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$415.43 | 180 | 48.9%88 W · 92 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Over | 52c | 849.48$441 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$408.53 | 462 | 46.5%215 W · 247 L | -6.8wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66b6…159dbacked Under | 47c | 794.25$373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$373.3 | 50 | 62%31 W · 19 L | +3.8wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7096…7f78backed Over | 52c | 755.48$397 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$358.97 | 222 | 50%111 W · 111 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda75…bbf9backed Over | 54c | 545.22$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.8 | 237 | 54.9%130 W · 107 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e09…0901backed Under | 48c | 512.69$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.02 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9de4…7f2ebacked Over | 57c | 407.34$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.45 | 160 | 54.4%87 W · 73 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5124…91bbbacked Under | 43c | 300$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129 | 270 | 48.1%130 W · 140 L | +12.8wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Under | 49c | 265$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.85 | 918 | 48.9%449 W · 469 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd2b…9ff9backed Over | 51c | 248.98$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122 | 53 | 56.6%30 W · 23 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Over | 50c | 226.8$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.4 | 1,234 | 44.8%553 W · 681 L | -32.8wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4059…3371backed Over | 50c | 213.8$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.9 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2678…cef5backed Over | 52c | 211.89$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.71 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30e0…48a4backed Under | 49c | 203.95$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.94 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -32%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41f9…84e6backed Under | 49c | 198.25$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.14 | 206 | 42.7%88 W · 118 L | -5.6wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Over | 53c | 196.27$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.25 | 505 | 48.9%247 W · 258 L | +13.1wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e24…b31fbacked Over | 51c | 194.36$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.24 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d8a…085bbacked Over | 52c | 191.16$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.75 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.32per pick | 52cpaid | +74.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xecc3…f5ffbacked Under | 49c | 188.69$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.46 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9055…1f0cbacked Under | 49c | 182.01$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.19 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.27per pick | 47cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4449…cb66backed Over | 52c | 176.09$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.52 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.27per pick | 53cpaid | +57.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0c00…7172backed Under | 49c | 165.29$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.99 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73ca…6b6cbacked Over | 52c | 160.81$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.19 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.1wins | -0.34per pick | 51cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x83c5…c3ffbacked Under | 50c | 148.69$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.34 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Under | 47c | 130.9$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.3 | 220 | 47.7%105 W · 115 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 49c | 124.34$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.93 | 4,382 | 40.5%1,775 W · 2,607 L | +23.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd17a…0373backed Over | 54c | 118.96$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.72 | 218 | 50.5%110 W · 108 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…579cbacked Over | 52c | 117.96$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.62 | 301 | 52.8%159 W · 142 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x913b…0852backed Over | 51c | 102.05$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 528 | 43.6%230 W · 298 L | -19.0wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea74…cf99backed Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 79 | 50.6%40 W · 39 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Under | 46c | 91.81$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.23 | 104 | 37.5%39 W · 65 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…54d1backed Under | 49c | 77.64$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.04 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67e6…86edbacked Under | 47c | 76.89$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.3 | 296 | 50.7%150 W · 146 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75dc…4f82backed Under | 43c | 62.16$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.73 | 229 | 53.7%123 W · 106 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x862a…d26bbacked Over | 54c | 60.17$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.68 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…d603backed Under | 47c | 52.73$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.78 | 330 | 58.2%192 W · 138 L | +24.2wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x15e6…7cefbacked Over | 52c | 47.66$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.88 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 56cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7d9…bad0backed Over | 52c | 41.94$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.13 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30f8…b824backed Under | 49c | 40.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.83 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Utah State Aggies vs. Villanova Wildcats: O/U 146.5this page
- Spread: Utah State Aggies (-1.5)Utah State Aggies won
- Spread: Utah State Aggies (-3.5)Utah State Aggies won
- Spread: Utah State Aggies (-5.5)Utah State Aggies won
- Spread: Villanova Wildcats (-1.5)Utah State Aggies won
- Utah State Aggies vs. Villanova WildcatsUtah State Aggies won
- Utah State Aggies vs. Villanova Wildcats: O/U 147.5Over won
- Utah State Aggies vs. Villanova Wildcats: O/U 155.5Over won
- Utah State Aggies vs. Villanova Wildcats: O/U 158.5Over won
- Utah State Aggies vs. Villanova Wildcats: O/U 161.5Over won
- Utah State Aggies vs. Villanova Wildcats: O/U 162.5Under won
- Utah State Aggies vs. Villanova Wildcats: O/U 165.5Under won
- Utah State Aggies vs. Villanova Wildcats: O/U 169.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.