NFL · resolved market
Will the Steelers beat the Broncos by 3 or more points?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8308103dc4f4785dda94de303eeb892ce4df41b91d50ede2183f15cab196950d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Steelers of Steelers , Broncos
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,007
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,990
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,007 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1dbd…af92backed Broncos | 47c | 1,510$709 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$709.37 | 186 | 45.7%85 W · 101 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88ca…84acbacked Steelers | 53c | 1,500$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$700 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe91…70ffbacked Steelers | 52c | 1,416$736 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$679.8 | 137 | 51.8%71 W · 66 L | +6.2wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2137…0677backed Broncos | 48c | 1,010$485 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$484.5 | 204 | 40.7%83 W · 121 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -17%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7e…4562backed Broncos | 48c | 1,000$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480 | 99 | 51.5%51 W · 48 L | +6.4wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa03b…c3f1backed Steelers | 54c | 490.74$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.74 | 48 | 52.1%25 W · 23 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6116…f247backed Broncos | 48c | 480$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.4 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd95…99f2backed Broncos | 47c | 450$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.5 | 157 | 22.3%35 W · 122 L | -7.6wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1130…f920backed Steelers | 55c | 272.73$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.73 | 54 | 57.4%31 W · 23 L | +6.1wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b7…ee3cbacked Broncos | 48c | 192$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.71 | 118 | 39%46 W · 72 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b3d…8db7backed Steelers | 53c | 165$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.55 | 164 | 39.6%65 W · 99 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1642…5988backed Steelers | 53c | 120$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.4 | 293 | 56%164 W · 129 L | +14.0wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce75…6b8ebacked Steelers | 54c | 111.11$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.11 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 43cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8d…22e5backed Broncos | 47c | 106.91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.25 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 58cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9423…6521backed Broncos | 47c | 70.21$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83ab…a767backed Steelers | 54c | 70.19$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.29 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…9b95backed Broncos | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 148 | 48%71 W · 77 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7c3…3800backed Steelers | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 83 | 42.2%35 W · 48 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50f9…88e7backed Steelers | 54c | 27.78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.78 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Steelers beat the Broncos by 3 or more points?this page
- Will the 49ers beat the Vikings by 6 or more points?Vikings won
- Will the Cardinals beat the Rams by 2 or more points?Cardinals won
- Will the Chargers beat the Panthers by 5 or more points? Chargers won
- Will the Chiefs beat the Bengals by 6 or more points?Bengals won
- Will the Colts beat the Packers by 3 or more points?Packers won
- Will the Commanders beat the Giants by 2 or more points?Commanders won
- Will the Cowboys beat the Saints by 7 or more points?Saints won
- Will the Jaguars beat the Browns by 3 or more points?Browns won
- Will the Jets beat the Titans by 4 or more points?Jets won
- Will the Lions beat the Buccaneers by 8 or more points?Buccaneers won
- Will the Ravens beat the Raiders by 9 or more points?Raiders won
- Will the Seahawks beat the Patriots by 4 or more points?Patriots won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.