NFL · resolved market
Will the 49ers beat the Vikings by 6 or more points?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4cc9dd86860091935c788a272be80e6b1959bdfb259ff0f4f6ab916ed64ea322
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Vikings of 49ers , Vikings
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,774
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,793
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,774 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7b8c…abbabacked Vikings | 53c | 1,698$898 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$799.89 | 71 | 53.5%38 W · 33 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b51…e165backed 49ers | 48c | 1,623$774 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$774.04 | 304 | 46.7%142 W · 162 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09af…d337backed Vikings | 54c | 1,515$818 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$696.81 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +2.6wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f91…907fbacked Vikings | 53c | 1,500$795 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$705 | 128 | 43.8%56 W · 72 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2137…0677backed 49ers | 47c | 1,000$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$470 | 204 | 40.7%83 W · 121 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -17%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed7c…da06backed 49ers | 46c | 900$414 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$414 | 46 | 34.8%16 W · 30 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xecbe…42ffbacked 49ers | 47c | 709.98$331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330.99 | 333 | 28.5%95 W · 238 L | +16.7wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1dbd…af92backed Vikings | 51c | 610.98$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299.38 | 186 | 45.7%85 W · 101 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0416…2993backed 49ers | 49c | 597.96$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.7wins | -0.24per pick | 43cpaid | -70.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6116…f247backed 49ers | 47c | 500$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88ca…84acbacked 49ers | 46c | 500$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe91…70ffbacked Vikings | 51c | 270$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.3 | 137 | 51.8%71 W · 66 L | +6.2wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x064d…a0e4backed Vikings | 53c | 190.56$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.56 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41f0…3eebbacked Vikings | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.19 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b7…ee3cbacked Vikings | 52c | 76.66$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.06 | 118 | 39%46 W · 72 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58bc…a883backed 49ers | 49c | 58.35$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.59 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.9wins | -0.41per pick | 55cpaid | -79.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x50f9…88e7backed 49ers | 45c | 51.76$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.46 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd33a…2cc4backed 49ers | 49c | 51.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 52 | 32.7%17 W · 35 L | -6.3wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa715…a8bcbacked 49ers | 46c | 45.65$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43e7…f880backed 49ers | 49c | 42.86$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67e3…e5b3backed 49ers | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 70 | 34.3%24 W · 46 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the 49ers beat the Vikings by 6 or more points?this page
- Will the Cardinals beat the Rams by 2 or more points?Cardinals won
- Will the Chargers beat the Panthers by 5 or more points? Chargers won
- Will the Chiefs beat the Bengals by 6 or more points?Bengals won
- Will the Colts beat the Packers by 3 or more points?Packers won
- Will the Commanders beat the Giants by 2 or more points?Commanders won
- Will the Cowboys beat the Saints by 7 or more points?Saints won
- Will the Jaguars beat the Browns by 3 or more points?Browns won
- Will the Jets beat the Titans by 4 or more points?Jets won
- Will the Lions beat the Buccaneers by 8 or more points?Buccaneers won
- Will the Ravens beat the Raiders by 9 or more points?Raiders won
- Will the Seahawks beat the Patriots by 4 or more points?Patriots won
- Will the Steelers beat the Broncos by 3 or more points?Steelers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.