Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 22°C on May 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8336b46596cff10d736d9d82ef903a439e26e10caa460001173e263cc1c95fc8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $39,618
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $41,809
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,618 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1838…29b4backed Yes | 1c | 14,911$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.92 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21f4…81a6backed Yes | 5c | 2,299$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.77 | 115 | 19.1%22 W · 93 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,977$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.74 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x726e…aafbbacked Yes | 7c | 1,100$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.6 | 232 | 69%160 W · 72 L | +23.7wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 2c | 746.76$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.17 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c7b…bd59backed No | 67c | 710.61$476 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.61 | 50 | 60%30 W · 20 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 7c | 451.57$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.08 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b4e…d839backed Yes | 14c | 417.82$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.46 | 227 | 28.6%65 W · 162 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdafd…2ad4backed Yes | 10c | 340.03$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.48 | 122 | 28.7%35 W · 87 L | +9.2wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 8c | 268.28$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.79 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a03…84afbacked Yes | 22c | 266.72$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.74 | 369 | 30.6%113 W · 256 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc60c…cdeebacked Yes | 8c | 253.21$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.08 | 58 | 12.1%7 W · 51 L | -4.6wins | -0.08per pick | 20cpaid | +103.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc1…b9f8backed Yes | 5c | 253$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.02 | 349 | 22.9%80 W · 269 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…98d0backed Yes | 7c | 216.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.55 | 36 | 8.3%3 W · 33 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea6a…3ee2backed Yes | 17c | 200$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.44 | 104 | 39.4%41 W · 63 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 6c | 198.97$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6086…a5f9backed No | 70c | 197.09$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.91 | 310 | 50.3%156 W · 154 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 11c | 159.6$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.91 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xadb0…1c8cbacked Yes | 59c | 123.08$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.07 | 541 | 43.1%233 W · 308 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ffc…e6ddbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 71 | 56.3%40 W · 31 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -17%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 13c | 90.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.47 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked No | 42c | 90$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.2 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 35c | 89.99$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.91 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfe…aef2backed Yes | 33c | 89.58$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 102 | 28.4%29 W · 73 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 29c | 78.45$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.67 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe7…1ea9backed Yes | 17c | 68.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 155 | 70.3%109 W · 46 L | +23.6wins | +0.15per pick | 55cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x0c40…8ef9backed Yes | 18c | 60.97$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed Yes | 43c | 58$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.87 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 41c | 50.15$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.75 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53c5…7f34backed No | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 49.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 27c | 49$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.09 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b82…b217backed Yes | 50c | 44$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 141 | 34.8%49 W · 92 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 67c | 40.4$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa36b…1d89backed Yes | 34c | 40.08$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 555 | 38.4%213 W · 342 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 41c | 39.97$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.58 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 36c | 38$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.58 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 40c | 34.54$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.57 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3b…256ebacked Yes | 58c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.35 | 233 | 62.2%145 W · 88 L | +33.5wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fd…5c4fbacked Yes | 59c | 25.23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 147 | 45.6%67 W · 80 L | -11.2wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x32b9…9a9cbacked No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 649 | 60.2%391 W · 258 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5157…fdbcbacked No | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 533 | 53.1%283 W · 250 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d39…099abacked No | 56c | 17.86$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.86 | 297 | 51.9%154 W · 143 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked No | 74c | 17.01$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.41 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 62c | 16.19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa921…f0eabacked No | 80c | 16$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.26 | 93 | 62.4%58 W · 35 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 22°C on May 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on May 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C on May 24?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on May 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 24°C on May 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 25°C on May 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 26°C on May 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 27°C or higher on May 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.