Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C on May 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x02705e89fd3c00e450bb24e20469ad8cf1de6275c02656fa952a00a1fb19c506
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $72,900
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $80,833
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $72,900 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1838…29b4backed Yes | 2c | 4,873$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,755.62 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7384…1ebdbacked No | 1c | 3,079$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.68 | 140 | 22.1%31 W · 109 L | +10.4wins | +0.07per pick | 15cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe7…1ea9backed Yes | 20c | 2,794$573 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,221.57 | 155 | 70.3%109 W · 46 L | +23.6wins | +0.15per pick | 55cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xc60c…cdeebacked Yes | 1c | 1,881$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,862.19 | 58 | 12.1%7 W · 51 L | -4.6wins | -0.08per pick | 20cpaid | +103.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc4b2…9a9bbacked No | 12c | 1,795$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.49 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked No | 1c | 1,247$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.87 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8947…4635backed Yes | 9c | 1,064$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$964.44 | 37 | 75.7%28 W · 9 L | +6.1wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +45.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6897…a4a4backed Yes | 3c | 1,044$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,016.27 | 192 | 17.2%33 W · 159 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f37…1952backed Yes | 3c | 705.38$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$681.38 | 64 | 37.5%24 W · 40 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +15%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 28c | 643.92$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d78…e5c9backed Yes | 2c | 523.77$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$513.74 | 105 | 24.8%26 W · 79 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 55c | 492.59$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.99 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3231…07c2backed Yes | 3c | 486.94$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$473.7 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +443.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadb0…1c8cbacked Yes | 71c | 480.53$339 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.18 | 541 | 43.1%233 W · 308 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 38c | 439.41$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.39 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 67c | 412.52$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.23 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea6a…3ee2backed Yes | 4c | 320$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308.09 | 104 | 39.4%41 W · 63 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 73c | 310.79$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.1 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 27c | 299.57$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.26 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 13c | 296.01$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.89 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 35c | 275.87$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.59 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 43c | 267.99$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.25 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b4e…d839backed Yes | 32c | 255.37$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.48 | 227 | 28.6%65 W · 162 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 6c | 240.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.31 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 66c | 240.15$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.52 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41aa…9e8cbacked Yes | 8c | 207$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.73 | 607 | 3.3%20 W · 587 L | -19.0wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a03…84afbacked Yes | 12c | 199.67$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.56 | 369 | 30.6%113 W · 256 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 65c | 170.94$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.49 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…98d0backed Yes | 7c | 163.51$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.25 | 36 | 8.3%3 W · 33 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e34…224ebacked Yes | 13c | 163.31$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.42 | 70 | 55.7%39 W · 31 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed Yes | 8c | 158.04$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.8 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 14c | 145.11$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.63 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 19c | 125.82$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.24 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 56c | 110.75$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.57 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 51c | 105$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.59 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1796…c490backed Yes | 49c | 103.58$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.43 | 48 | 70.8%34 W · 14 L | +4.3wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 12c | 103.35$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.34 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e2…c595backed Yes | 14c | 102.91$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.46 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.16per pick | 38cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 31c | 101$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.24 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85db…1423backed No | 64c | 100$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.29 | 66 | 66.7%44 W · 22 L | +4.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 54c | 90.07$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.32 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 14c | 90$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.4 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 35c | 90$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.08 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98f8…67c0backed No | 75c | 81.36$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.94 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -27%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa84…e985backed Yes | 15c | 67$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.95 | 407 | 39.3%160 W · 247 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf90…62b9backed Yes | 24c | 59.43$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.28 | 31 | 77.4%24 W · 7 L | +5.7wins | +0.18per pick | 59cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.09 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 57c | 45.92$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.25 | 435 | 63.9%278 W · 157 L | +13.6wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 77c | 41$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.38 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 41c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 51c | 32$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.77 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 57c | 28$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x327e…e2a1backed No | 55c | 23.59$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.02 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked No | 64c | 20.27$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.95 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5157…fdbcbacked No | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 533 | 53.1%283 W · 250 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0832…8681backed Yes | 70c | 17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.07 | 346 | 51.2%177 W · 169 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C on May 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on May 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 22°C on May 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on May 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 24°C on May 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 25°C on May 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 26°C on May 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 27°C or higher on May 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.