MLB · resolved market
Washington Nationals vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x834208361631c719688432675f8ecb330bdd1e5403da8237ea512f3b1032daf0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,510
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,232
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,510 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 34c | 5,645$1,921 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,921.22 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcba5…cd88backed Under | 58c | 3,712$2,139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,573.16 | 662 | 50.2%332 W · 330 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 63c | 3,410$2,149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,261.77 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x595d…9ad0backed Under | 58c | 2,585$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,084.69 | 123 | 42.3%52 W · 71 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58b9…ee8bbacked Over | 43c | 2,000$860 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$860 | 752 | 48.8%367 W · 385 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 64c | 1,854$1,188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$665.62 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 38c | 1,678$640 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$640.35 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under | 70c | 616$431 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.8 | 4,405 | 44.9%1,978 W · 2,427 L | +80.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Over | 43c | 500$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 43c | 472.18$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.67 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Over | 37c | 384.32$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.51 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x61f1…7aefbacked Over | 36c | 271.38$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.7 | 399 | 53.6%214 W · 185 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3453…8524backed Over | 36c | 271.38$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.7 | 390 | 51.5%201 W · 189 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6553…7a71backed Over | 43c | 264.6$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.78 | 614 | 50.8%312 W · 302 L | +9.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6383…6e28backed Over | 38c | 257.11$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.7 | 795 | 55.6%442 W · 353 L | +21.1wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a8…6764backed Over | 44c | 230.88$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.22 | 264 | 38.3%101 W · 163 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52a0…ec9dbacked Over | 45c | 224.29$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 382 | 52.1%199 W · 183 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Over | 17c | 220.55$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.49 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7886…ec60backed Under | 71c | 193.7$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.17 | 111 | 50.5%56 W · 55 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 57c | 189.39$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.44 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe134…f6dabacked Under | 58c | 172.24$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.93 | 765 | 58%444 W · 321 L | -7.2wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x702e…ff44backed Over | 43c | 171.35$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.68 | 264 | 44.3%117 W · 147 L | -7.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64d4…f056backed Under | 71c | 146.9$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.6 | 231 | 40.3%93 W · 138 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Over | 38c | 128.53$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.84 | 1,737 | 49.1%852 W · 885 L | +7.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 36c | 106.92$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.49 | 4,515 | 48.8%2,205 W · 2,310 L | -46.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked Over | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 1,279 | 51.2%655 W · 624 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfd…b845backed Over | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 268 | 60.4%162 W · 106 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Over | 40c | 99.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.62 | 1,147 | 31.6%362 W · 785 L | -97.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Over | 41c | 99.98$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.99 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Under | 64c | 88.75$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.99 | 4,187 | 50.2%2,102 W · 2,085 L | +94.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a01…1a3cbacked Under | 70c | 85.88$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.08 | 101 | 43.6%44 W · 57 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba2…d212backed Under | 56c | 80$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.2 | 926 | 45.9%425 W · 501 L | -12.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd17a…0373backed Over | 44c | 80$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.2 | 785 | 50.2%394 W · 391 L | +2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Over | 19c | 76.23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 5,812 | 43.7%2,541 W · 3,271 L | -188.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88fb…db3abacked Over | 44c | 68.18$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 741 | 43.5%322 W · 419 L | -14.9wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 42c | 52.4$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.01 | 3,841 | 42.2%1,622 W · 2,219 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fe3…a9f7backed Under | 60c | 41.67$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.67 | 60 | 53.3%32 W · 28 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x117b…f017backed Under | 60c | 41.67$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.67 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -4.6wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -34%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Under | 71c | 40.56$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.76 | 1,022 | 50.6%517 W · 505 L | +54.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Over | 42c | 40.01$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.97 | 2,413 | 49.9%1,205 W · 1,208 L | +22.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5407…5bbdbacked Over | 43c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 778 | 36%280 W · 498 L | -17.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4f9…84f7backed Over | 34c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 90 | 47.8%43 W · 47 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27b1…6a0bbacked Over | 33c | 39.06$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.89 | 475 | 52.4%249 W · 226 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 57c | 35.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.34 | 2,995 | 47.9%1,435 W · 1,560 L | +12.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b2a…0a73backed Over | 43c | 35.4$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.22 | 254 | 48.4%123 W · 131 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf69f…ffeebacked Under | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e20…5cf9backed Under | 66c | 18.05$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.05 | 150 | 48%72 W · 78 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 61c | 17$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.59 | 4,087 | 57.6%2,354 W · 1,733 L | +66.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Washington Nationals vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5this page
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Washington Nationals vs. Baltimore OriolesWashington Nationals won
- Washington Nationals vs. Baltimore Orioles: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Under won
- Washington Nationals vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 6.5Over won
- Washington Nationals vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 7.5Under won
- Washington Nationals vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Washington Nationals vs. Baltimore OriolesNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.