MLB · resolved market
Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc2d1730288281b8424e5a7be855ec222d0a1468f3f3cb58379aa27e6ef87a0c1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Baltimore Oriolesof Washington Nationals, Baltimore Orioles
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,354
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,383
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,354 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Baltimore Orioles | 61c | 8,649$5,258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,391.14 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Washington Nationals | 54c | 6,271$3,384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,383.54 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Washington Nationals | 51c | 6,194$3,138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,138.26 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Baltimore Orioles | 48c | 1,626$788 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$838.33 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60ec…f7b0backed Baltimore Orioles | 66c | 1,362$899 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$463.1 | 718 | 50.1%360 W · 358 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57b1…4b99backed Baltimore Orioles | 65c | 923.91$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$323.91 | 175 | 46.9%82 W · 93 L | -9.2wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Baltimore Orioles | 60c | 769$458 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310.96 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3603…22edbacked Washington Nationals | 50c | 606.18$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.15 | 518 | 49.4%256 W · 262 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Washington Nationals | 35c | 500$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7693…470fbacked Baltimore Orioles | 65c | 461.2$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.2 | 213 | 54.5%116 W · 97 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Washington Nationals | 35c | 322.2$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.55 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b15…fa73backed Baltimore Orioles | 50c | 317.34$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.67 | 338 | 64.2%217 W · 121 L | +23.1wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x815f…1eefbacked Washington Nationals | 54c | 265$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.1 | 912 | 52.4%478 W · 434 L | +12.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Washington Nationals | 28c | 203$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.95 | 2,147 | 50.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L | +27.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Baltimore Orioles | 38c | 190.5$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.16 | 439 | 54.7%240 W · 199 L | +30.6wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Baltimore Orioles | 64c | 173.19$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.35 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Baltimore Orioles | 66c | 150$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Washington Nationals | 48c | 143.64$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.95 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Washington Nationals | 41c | 99.39$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.6 | 1,147 | 31.6%362 W · 785 L | -97.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Baltimore Orioles | 36c | 80$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.25 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e62…79f1backed Baltimore Orioles | 48c | 78.46$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.85 | 420 | 47.9%201 W · 219 L | +8.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Washington Nationals | 35c | 70.49$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.67 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27b1…6a0bbacked Washington Nationals | 37c | 68.05$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.18 | 469 | 52.5%246 W · 223 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Washington Nationals | 36c | 61.12$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Baltimore Orioles | 63c | 61.07$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.6 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea58…b635backed Washington Nationals | 38c | 54$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.29 | 167 | 34.7%58 W · 109 L | -17.3wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Washington Nationals | 36c | 49.36$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.77 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Baltimore Orioles | 57c | 45.78$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.54 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5407…5bbdbacked Washington Nationals | 37c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 778 | 36%280 W · 498 L | -17.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33ad…95e5backed Washington Nationals | 37c | 39$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.43 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82aa…fe2fbacked Baltimore Orioles | 66c | 37$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.58 | 151 | 43.7%66 W · 85 L | -12.0wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3404…10d2backed Baltimore Orioles | 63c | 35$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.95 | 528 | 52.1%275 W · 253 L | +13.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Washington Nationals | 52c | 34.43$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.74 | 873 | 70.1%612 W · 261 L | +91.6wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Washington Nationals | 45c | 31.04$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.06 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc93d…23d5backed Baltimore Orioles | 56c | 27.75$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.09 | 197 | 56.9%112 W · 85 L | +7.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Washington Nationals | 48c | 24.63$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.82 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Baltimore Orioles | 63c | 19.35$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.16 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Baltimore Orioles | 61c | 16.98$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.55 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f4…6fa9backed Baltimore Orioles | 63c | 16.12$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.92 | 1,777 | 58.4%1,037 W · 740 L | +91.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5)this page
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)Washington Nationals won
- Washington Nationals vs. Baltimore OriolesWashington Nationals won
- Washington Nationals vs. Baltimore Orioles: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Under won
- Washington Nationals vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 6.5Over won
- Washington Nationals vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 7.5Under won
- Washington Nationals vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5Under won
- Washington Nationals vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Washington Nationals vs. Baltimore OriolesNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.