MLB · resolved market
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xae2a60fb48a7aabaff8f4608edfe3b40c74b9d0a9793571f6d327c97623abd1a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Washington Nationalsof Baltimore Orioles, Washington Nationals
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $42,429
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $42,579
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,429 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Washington Nationals | 69c | 6,198$4,250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,947.82 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Baltimore Orioles | 27c | 5,059$1,369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,369.22 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Baltimore Orioles | 37c | 3,771$1,409 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,408.62 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44f0…432cbacked Baltimore Orioles | 35c | 3,073$1,075 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,075.41 | 410 | 51.7%212 W · 198 L | +14.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Washington Nationals | 61c | 2,273$1,389 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$883.95 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Washington Nationals | 65c | 1,488$968 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$519.57 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Washington Nationals | 64c | 1,024$655 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$368.64 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Washington Nationals | 66c | 508.6$336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.92 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe134…f6dabacked Washington Nationals | 70c | 142.75$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.02 | 746 | 57.8%431 W · 315 L | -9.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27b1…6a0bbacked Washington Nationals | 69c | 122.48$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.37 | 469 | 52.5%246 W · 223 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe66e…f799backed Baltimore Orioles | 10c | 103.36$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36f4…0eb2backed Washington Nationals | 67c | 84.09$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.75 | 859 | 49.1%422 W · 437 L | -3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Washington Nationals | 65c | 77$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.95 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Baltimore Orioles | 28c | 69.53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.69 | 1,147 | 31.6%362 W · 785 L | -97.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1df6…cba0backed Washington Nationals | 71c | 63.52$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.57 | 1,445 | 50.3%727 W · 718 L | -27.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Washington Nationals | 77c | 62.86$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.46 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Washington Nationals | 63c | 56.96$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.08 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Baltimore Orioles | 35c | 51.5$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.19 | 1,708 | 49.9%852 W · 856 L | -17.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Washington Nationals | 66c | 47$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.05 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f7f…cc9bbacked Washington Nationals | 65c | 36.43$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.75 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a85…e543backed Baltimore Orioles | 30c | 35.05$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.41 | 146 | 43.8%64 W · 82 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f4…6fa9backed Baltimore Orioles | 33c | 35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 1,777 | 58.4%1,037 W · 740 L | +91.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea58…b635backed Baltimore Orioles | 33c | 30.24$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 167 | 34.7%58 W · 109 L | -17.3wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd3a8…df77backed Washington Nationals | 65c | 23.23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.23 | 52 | 57.7%30 W · 22 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Washington Nationals | 64c | 21.16$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.62 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8255…cba9backed Washington Nationals | 60c | 20.48$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.19 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -3.2wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba2…d212backed Washington Nationals | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 920 | 46%423 W · 497 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed Washington Nationals | 67c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 1,464 | 63.5%929 W · 535 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)this page
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Washington Nationals vs. Baltimore OriolesWashington Nationals won
- Washington Nationals vs. Baltimore Orioles: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Under won
- Washington Nationals vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 6.5Over won
- Washington Nationals vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 7.5Under won
- Washington Nationals vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5Under won
- Washington Nationals vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Washington Nationals vs. Baltimore OriolesNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.