Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x835925678853decd158bb0783ccd82c83cfcfd424c4219fbd093343c8db796bb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,806
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,316
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,806 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5500…b4f6backed Yes | 51c | 748.76$379 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$370.09 | 175 | 36%63 W · 112 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 48c | 332.53$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.97 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 48c | 327.75$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.29 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 47c | 209$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.23 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1917…138bbacked No | 42c | 116.8$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.55 | 337 | 46.9%158 W · 179 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 27c | 107$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.39 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 41c | 99.79$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.43 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 38c | 92.58$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.11 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 58c | 86.53$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.53 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 45c | 70$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.66 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaebe…2c1dbacked Yes | 56c | 67.44$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.48 | 90 | 47.8%43 W · 47 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 62c | 64.88$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.88 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 49c | 59.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.45 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 58c | 51.88$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.79 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 68c | 50.38$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.07 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 31c | 44.08$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.61 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Yes | 56c | 42.91$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.91 | 421 | 48%202 W · 219 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed Yes | 68c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.92 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5157…fdbcbacked No | 32c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 533 | 53.1%283 W · 250 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bb1…6644backed Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 135 | 40%54 W · 81 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 52c | 38.39$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.39 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed Yes | 59c | 36.51$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.92 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes | 50c | 34.11$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.06 | 461 | 48.8%225 W · 236 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 40c | 34.09$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.66 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 52c | 32.1$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.41 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 44c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 39c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x445f…cc13backed Yes | 57c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.9 | 65 | 40%26 W · 39 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +11%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed Yes | 55c | 25.69$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.56 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…a7a5backed Yes | 54c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.6 | 425 | 55.1%234 W · 191 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd78c…a66ebacked Yes | 44c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 728 | 37.8%275 W · 453 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 62c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.5 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3164…3c65backed No | 42c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.55 | 444 | 65.3%290 W · 154 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 45c | 23.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.69 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fa…4531backed Yes | 56c | 22.52$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.91 | 319 | 36.1%115 W · 204 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa109…7e42backed Yes | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 110 | 68.2%75 W · 35 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 65cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb782…aa2dbacked Yes | 59c | 18.55$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.55 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +3.5wins | +0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 32°C on June 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 33°C on June 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.