CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: illwill vs 100 Thieves - Map 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x835a429acda2b57955d563b18366f5c0785586c02836f852757ffc8aac212783
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- illwillof illwill, 100 Thieves
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,590
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,348
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,590 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x87da…53d1backed 100 Thieves | 46c | 5,331$2,464 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,463.59 | 373 | 46.4%173 W · 200 L | -16.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked illwill | 55c | 2,789$1,529 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,259.99 | 7,892 | 50.5%3,983 W · 3,909 L | +182.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…90e0backed illwill | 38c | 2,051$786 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,265.26 | 4,220 | 49.2%2,078 W · 2,142 L | +61.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35f0…971ebacked illwill | 50c | 1,292$646 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$645.33 | 316 | 47.8%151 W · 165 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked 100 Thieves | 47c | 1,108$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$519.82 | 2,221 | 41.3%917 W · 1,304 L | -22.6wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2529…548abacked illwill | 27c | 851$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$618.52 | 3,217 | 51.3%1,649 W · 1,568 L | +89.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ca…6a8bbacked illwill | 45c | 831.53$377 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$454.49 | 751 | 45.4%341 W · 410 L | -22.3wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d24…20b3backed illwill | 43c | 789.95$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450.19 | 435 | 44.6%194 W · 241 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c1b…f0f9backed illwill | 15c | 634.96$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$538.75 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +2.8wins | +0.16per pick | 31cpaid | +89.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe167…03a1backed illwill | 48c | 585.03$283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301.65 | 418 | 50%209 W · 209 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed illwill | 42c | 567.72$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$327.5 | 6,466 | 42.9%2,777 W · 3,689 L | -78.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked illwill | 34c | 499.99$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$329.99 | 1,573 | 35.3%556 W · 1,017 L | +22.5wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8668…7f8fbacked 100 Thieves | 61c | 492.28$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 133 | 43.6%58 W · 75 L | -9.8wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4713…4d21backed illwill | 53c | 481.94$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.64 | 5,262 | 31.3%1,647 W · 3,615 L | -381.6wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed illwill | 75c | 348.5$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.41 | 568 | 22.5%128 W · 440 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1dcc…e8ccbacked illwill | 50c | 310$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155 | 154 | 41.6%64 W · 90 L | -6.0wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3424…8b87backed 100 Thieves | 66c | 303.03$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 63cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2662…3f84backed 100 Thieves | 65c | 300$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195 | 209 | 58.9%123 W · 86 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8d…febfbacked 100 Thieves | 80c | 250$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 163 | 44.8%73 W · 90 L | -32.6wins | -0.20per pick | 65cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed 100 Thieves | 56c | 231.9$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.46 | 4,038 | 48.1%1,943 W · 2,095 L | -23.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0db0…6424backed 100 Thieves | 66c | 222.68$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148 | 67 | 44.8%30 W · 37 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd46e…d10dbacked 100 Thieves | 44c | 221.32$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.58 | 530 | 34.7%184 W · 346 L | -32.8wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2957…b26abacked illwill | 61c | 189.37$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.37 | 228 | 38.2%87 W · 141 L | -15.1wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8ca2…5d25backed 100 Thieves | 71c | 180$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.63 | 177 | 59.9%106 W · 71 L | -4.5wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0844…bf81backed 100 Thieves | 64c | 154.29$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.27 | 351 | 48.1%169 W · 182 L | -13.9wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9be…a0c1backed 100 Thieves | 58c | 144.66$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.53 | 447 | 48.1%215 W · 232 L | +17.3wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdff0…f573backed 100 Thieves | 63c | 143.26$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.36 | 341 | 46.6%159 W · 182 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x505f…645ebacked illwill | 47c | 140.9$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.01 | 2,603 | 52.6%1,370 W · 1,233 L | +97.5wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6dcd…5ef7backed 100 Thieves | 72c | 136$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.7 | 301 | 53.8%162 W · 139 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x299f…2c50backed illwill | 50c | 133.88$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.51 | 717 | 39.6%284 W · 433 L | -25.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf437…ff9bbacked illwill | 42c | 118.77$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.77 | 290 | 52.4%152 W · 138 L | +9.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c2…eef4backed 100 Thieves | 60c | 116.75$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.56 | 141 | 51.8%73 W · 68 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked illwill | 38c | 115.95$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.78 | 217 | 37.3%81 W · 136 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked 100 Thieves | 54c | 113.93$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.52 | 5,474 | 46.9%2,565 W · 2,909 L | +38.6wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x461c…f74bbacked 100 Thieves | 64c | 112.48$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 201 | 45.8%92 W · 109 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5454…ceadbacked 100 Thieves | 46c | 110.87$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 95 | 52.6%50 W · 45 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5cbb…75a1backed illwill | 54c | 110.13$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.13 | 143 | 39.9%57 W · 86 L | -6.8wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked 100 Thieves | 45c | 108.02$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.07 | 4,661 | 43.5%2,027 W · 2,634 L | -85.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed 100 Thieves | 34c | 108$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.82 | 1,303 | 26.5%345 W · 958 L | -89.1wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked 100 Thieves | 68c | 105.66$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.78 | 4,897 | 37.4%1,832 W · 3,065 L | -245.2wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf3…f535backed illwill | 22c | 104.93$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.85 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed illwill | 33c | 100$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67 | 567 | 32.5%184 W · 383 L | -30.0wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e1…49ddbacked 100 Thieves | 58c | 93.86$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.27 | 1,398 | 48.4%676 W · 722 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce7a…fef0backed 100 Thieves | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 141 | 35.5%50 W · 91 L | -6.7wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc400…21a7backed 100 Thieves | 56c | 87.46$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.98 | 69 | 46.4%32 W · 37 L | -4.2wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf348…e543backed illwill | 45c | 86.87$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.56 | 230 | 72.6%167 W · 63 L | +27.8wins | +0.12per pick | 61cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe881…fb3dbacked 100 Thieves | 66c | 75.76$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 354 | 66.1%234 W · 120 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…8d97backed 100 Thieves | 75c | 70$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 326 | 62%202 W · 124 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6762…a9a5backed illwill | 54c | 53.51$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.72 | 51 | 39.2%20 W · 31 L | -4.6wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xac96…40c4backed illwill | 44c | 51.28$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.53 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf99e…bde6backed 100 Thieves | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.1 | 587 | 62.2%365 W · 222 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17cb…edaabacked 100 Thieves | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.1 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -5.8wins | -0.16per pick | 52cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf9e4…24c2backed 100 Thieves | 69c | 43.48$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 333 | 54.4%181 W · 152 L | +10.7wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbf3…aa3abacked illwill | 59c | 42.37$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.37 | 229 | 49.8%114 W · 115 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3773…e51bbacked 100 Thieves | 33c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 235 | 47.7%112 W · 123 L | +9.3wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked illwill | 61c | 38$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.82 | 2,770 | 37.4%1,036 W · 1,734 L | -139.7wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed 100 Thieves | 41c | 33.7$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.93 | 2,102 | 16.8%353 W · 1,749 L | -286.5wins | -0.14per pick | 30cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x98af…b216backed illwill | 43c | 31$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.67 | 133 | 24.8%33 W · 100 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc301…6760backed illwill | 46c | 28.33$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed illwill | 61c | 24.43$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.53 | 193 | 29%56 W · 137 L | -23.4wins | -0.12per pick | 41cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5471…a236backed 100 Thieves | 66c | 24.01$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.87 | 250 | 42.8%107 W · 143 L | -9.4wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebff…70e5backed illwill | 48c | 24$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.59 | 2,774 | 24.5%681 W · 2,093 L | -295.8wins | -0.11per pick | 35cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed 100 Thieves | 66c | 22.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 1,003 | 55.7%559 W · 444 L | +24.5wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b60…76d5backed 100 Thieves | 78c | 20.47$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.96 | 378 | 41.8%158 W · 220 L | -33.1wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8e…08c1backed 100 Thieves | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 2,343 | 46.7%1,094 W · 1,249 L | -49.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaff6…07f9backed illwill | 61c | 17.08$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.66 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: illwill vs 100 Thieves - Map 1 Winnerthis page
- Counter-Strike: illwill vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2: Closed Qualifier Playoffs100 Thieves won
- Counter-Strike: illwill vs 100 Thieves - Map 2 Winner100 Thieves won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.