CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Nuclear TigeRES - Map 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x835a474264c8edcc6eb3995ec1911264e4b045c691d9b78d04c481a1a8e3023e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Nuclear TigeRESof illwill, Nuclear TigeRES
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,814
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,348
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,814 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf424…9723backed illwill | 40c | 4,902$1,968 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,967.77 | 211 | 35.5%75 W · 136 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa927…8d9fbacked Nuclear TigeRES | 64c | 3,700$2,366 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,333.92 | 345 | 59.1%204 W · 141 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…90e0backed illwill | 40c | 1,704$690 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$689.84 | 4,238 | 49.2%2,085 W · 2,153 L | +60.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked illwill | 34c | 1,105$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375.25 | 7,990 | 50.4%4,029 W · 3,961 L | +180.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7069…325bbacked Nuclear TigeRES | 51c | 700$357 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$343 | 949 | 45.8%435 W · 514 L | +19.7wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x505f…645ebacked illwill | 41c | 653.66$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.82 | 2,605 | 52.6%1,371 W · 1,234 L | +97.5wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x969f…cbdcbacked illwill | 38c | 403.15$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.49 | 627 | 38.8%243 W · 384 L | -31.2wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -30%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x949e…20afbacked Nuclear TigeRES | 53c | 391.66$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.3 | 434 | 37.6%163 W · 271 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked illwill | 47c | 372.01$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174 | 5,034 | 37.2%1,874 W · 3,160 L | -260.4wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed illwill | 42c | 331.08$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.14 | 6,501 | 42.9%2,791 W · 3,710 L | -79.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Nuclear TigeRES | 54c | 309.89$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.48 | 202 | 38.6%78 W · 124 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99f7…1a59backed illwill | 5c | 300$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 579 | 35.1%203 W · 376 L | -11.2wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Nuclear TigeRES | 66c | 278.85$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.81 | 921 | 45.8%422 W · 499 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29b5…cc6cbacked illwill | 34c | 258.39$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.25 | 5,095 | 55.1%2,805 W · 2,290 L | +119.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed illwill | 38c | 224.51$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.63 | 4,099 | 51%2,091 W · 2,008 L | +74.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked illwill | 38c | 214.29$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.27 | 2,397 | 42.7%1,023 W · 1,374 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe123…b4ffbacked illwill | 40c | 213.67$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.47 | 85 | 48.2%41 W · 44 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa369…3ad6backed illwill | 66c | 200$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.7 | 331 | 46.5%154 W · 177 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebff…70e5backed Nuclear TigeRES | 47c | 175.46$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.86 | 2,774 | 24.5%681 W · 2,093 L | -295.8wins | -0.11per pick | 35cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked Nuclear TigeRES | 58c | 150.46$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.54 | 4,754 | 43.6%2,071 W · 2,683 L | -85.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dea…e294backed illwill | 35c | 150$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 359 | 48.5%174 W · 185 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c6c…5e36backed illwill | 36c | 126.55$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.18 | 239 | 56.5%135 W · 104 L | +15.6wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbb42…6e09backed illwill | 53c | 126$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.78 | 380 | 49.5%188 W · 192 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bf3…4f00backed illwill | 29c | 124.22$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.59 | 408 | 57.1%233 W · 175 L | +15.2wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed illwill | 38c | 120.57$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.65 | 967 | 43.5%421 W · 546 L | -20.3wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa091…f1c1backed illwill | 34c | 120$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.8 | 97 | 37.1%36 W · 61 L | -5.4wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x297a…198bbacked illwill | 34c | 120$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.8 | 63 | 31.7%20 W · 43 L | -6.7wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Nuclear TigeRES | 65c | 99.2$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.52 | 2,474 | 24.7%611 W · 1,863 L | -316.9wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xb91c…ed66backed illwill | 24c | 88.75$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.54 | 702 | 42.2%296 W · 406 L | -17.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4713…4d21backed illwill | 34c | 87$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.94 | 5,341 | 31.3%1,674 W · 3,667 L | -390.7wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x14e7…a32cbacked illwill | 43c | 82.6$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.6 | 1,302 | 41.2%536 W · 766 L | -50.1wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x25ef…b2ddbacked illwill | 27c | 66$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.04 | 45 | 71.1%32 W · 13 L | +4.0wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +32%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x36d9…c3cabacked Nuclear TigeRES | 64c | 59.99$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.79 | 199 | 54.8%109 W · 90 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03f0…63e0backed Nuclear TigeRES | 51c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.7 | 222 | 53.2%118 W · 104 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77de…e67abacked illwill | 46c | 41.89$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.3 | 531 | 45.4%241 W · 290 L | -18.9wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6efa…a0a7backed Nuclear TigeRES | 61c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 302 | 47%142 W · 160 L | -11.2wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Nuclear TigeRES | 42c | 38$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.99 | 2,798 | 37.6%1,051 W · 1,747 L | -138.2wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x94d2…cfbdbacked Nuclear TigeRES | 62c | 35.81$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.78 | 2,143 | 47.3%1,013 W · 1,130 L | -61.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82d2…beeabacked Nuclear TigeRES | 62c | 31.09$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.81 | 1,020 | 52.2%532 W · 488 L | +26.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa099…b1d4backed Nuclear TigeRES | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 71 | 59.2%42 W · 29 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe297…e484backed Nuclear TigeRES | 43c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.1 | 322 | 58.7%189 W · 133 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…ba2cbacked Nuclear TigeRES | 62c | 29.09$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 447 | 63.5%284 W · 163 L | +18.8wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x34c6…be53backed Nuclear TigeRES | 60c | 27$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.91 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -5.5wins | -0.29per pick | 50cpaid | -65.2%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x8b22…377ebacked Nuclear TigeRES | 72c | 17.18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.78 | 361 | 74.8%270 W · 91 L | +13.2wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: illwill vs Nuclear TigeRES - Map 1 Winnerthis page
- Counter-Strike: illwill vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series PlayoffsNuclear TigeRES won
- Counter-Strike: illwill vs Nuclear TigeRES - Map 2 WinnerNuclear TigeRES won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
- Map Handicap: NTR (-1.5) vs illwill (+1.5)Nuclear TigeRES won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.