Tennis · resolved market
Brazzaville: Florent Bax vs Adrian Arcon
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8368589bc3bffa29e00b97e9d570f8ddf87983e118d1d32c9d6f911dc991584c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Florent Baxof Florent Bax, Adrian Arcon
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $69,498
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $79,630
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $69,498 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Adrian Arcon | 7c | 13,897$1,037 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,036.79 | 9,038 | 36.1%3,266 W · 5,772 L | -196.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -27%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e38…1b52backed Adrian Arcon | 4c | 2,400$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 619 | 24.4%151 W · 468 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa0b…9672backed Adrian Arcon | 8c | 2,300$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184 | 231 | 26%60 W · 171 L | -7.8wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf96d…20bebacked Adrian Arcon | 7c | 2,008$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138 | 482 | 14.1%68 W · 414 L | -14.8wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2978…b511backed Adrian Arcon | 3c | 1,781$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 440 | 32.7%144 W · 296 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Adrian Arcon | 6c | 1,689$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.47 | 5,009 | 41.4%2,075 W · 2,934 L | -82.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x713b…ee60backed Adrian Arcon | 10c | 1,328$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.43 | 56 | 28.6%16 W · 40 L | -4.4wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x54b2…0f1ebacked Adrian Arcon | 10c | 1,213$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.34 | 63 | 41.3%26 W · 37 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Adrian Arcon | 4c | 1,090$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.59 | 4,650 | 48.2%2,242 W · 2,408 L | +31.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Adrian Arcon | 8c | 980.25$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.07 | 4,975 | 38.6%1,922 W · 3,053 L | -19.9wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Adrian Arcon | 5c | 961.87$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.62 | 295 | 33.6%99 W · 196 L | -8.7wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Adrian Arcon | 6c | 706.2$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.53 | 8,702 | 42.6%3,708 W · 4,994 L | -165.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fab…708bbacked Adrian Arcon | 8c | 474.29$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.2 | 1,276 | 30.4%388 W · 888 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf57c…66febacked Adrian Arcon | 4c | 471.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 97 | 27.8%27 W · 70 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Adrian Arcon | 7c | 465.31$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.55 | 977 | 45.2%442 W · 535 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bad…4d53backed Adrian Arcon | 7c | 330$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.1 | 165 | 29.1%48 W · 117 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Adrian Arcon | 4c | 326.97$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.11 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc829…cad3backed Adrian Arcon | 8c | 226.2$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.18 | 119 | 45.4%54 W · 65 L | -6.0wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -14%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Adrian Arcon | 8c | 221.47$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.72 | 1,107 | 42.8%474 W · 633 L | -20.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78a1…5551backed Adrian Arcon | 7c | 205.36$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.35 | 904 | 35.7%323 W · 581 L | -15.7wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1182…fc5dbacked Adrian Arcon | 7c | 200.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.62 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb48…17d7backed Adrian Arcon | 8c | 189.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Adrian Arcon | 7c | 143$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 1,489 | 32.6%486 W · 1,003 L | +22.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0862…dc29backed Adrian Arcon | 9c | 142.41$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.08 | 513 | 39.4%202 W · 311 L | -14.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e02…b178backed Adrian Arcon | 8c | 138.81$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.96 | 334 | 9.6%32 W · 302 L | -16.7wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe8de…a2b8backed Adrian Arcon | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 30 | 16.7%5 W · 25 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -51%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.