MLB · resolved market
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 10.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x837b796bb05855b5c76229f0e1ad786d8228ec8baed86f9bf8757bc5b4e5bba0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $135,604
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $135,600
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $135,604 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4bff…fc26backed Under | 49c | 110,248$54,124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56,124 | 436 | 47%205 W · 231 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Over | 51c | 100,000$51,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51,000 | 1,385 | 49.5%685 W · 700 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b88…8f33backed Over | 50c | 20,000$10,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,000 | 448 | 51.6%231 W · 217 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Under | 50c | 10,493$5,247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,246.67 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 50c | 6,617$3,309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,308.73 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Over | 50c | 3,200$1,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,600 | 1,909 | 53.5%1,021 W · 888 L | +29.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a26…937ebacked Over | 51c | 2,941$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 613 | 51.5%316 W · 297 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 49c | 1,112$545 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$566.95 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Over | 50c | 1,024$512 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$512 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Under | 49c | 995$488 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$507.35 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28e8…6080backed Over | 50c | 630.6$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315.3 | 473 | 50.7%240 W · 233 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 47c | 548.95$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290.02 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeef6…cd4cbacked Under | 50c | 480$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240 | 556 | 53.4%297 W · 259 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Over | 50c | 375$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.9 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Under | 49c | 294.26$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.07 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x889c…e375backed Over | 51c | 245.1$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 403 | 48.4%195 W · 208 L | -18.3wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x25c1…7e8ebacked Over | 51c | 240.41$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.61 | 196 | 54.1%106 W · 90 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b74…0482backed Over | 46c | 235.92$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.83 | 522 | 28%146 W · 376 L | -57.7wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Under | 49c | 225.3$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.9 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07b1…b027backed Under | 39c | 205$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.05 | 209 | 44%92 W · 117 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf15b…000fbacked Under | 50c | 204$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 122 | 53.3%65 W · 57 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8508…c22fbacked Over | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,000 | 52.4%524 W · 476 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7602…4b9abacked Over | 51c | 155.24$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.17 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 61c | 144.5$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.14 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 49c | 144.31$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.03 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4060…e63cbacked Under | 37c | 135.14$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.14 | 236 | 51.3%121 W · 115 L | +5.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 54c | 125.39$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.11 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa106…5abbbacked Under | 50c | 122.58$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.29 | 197 | 52.3%103 W · 94 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked Over | 51c | 120$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.2 | 1,279 | 51.2%655 W · 624 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5505…aa44backed Under | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.04 | 515 | 45.2%233 W · 282 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 50c | 100.03$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.01 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe134…f6dabacked Under | 48c | 80.55$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.66 | 746 | 57.8%431 W · 315 L | -9.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8d…7688backed Over | 51c | 78.43$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 241 | 49%118 W · 123 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 63c | 72.33$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.36 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc72…cd13backed Over | 53c | 68$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.04 | 344 | 43.9%151 W · 193 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 75c | 60.45$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.11 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c85…9634backed Over | 25c | 57.48$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.37 | 119 | 56.3%67 W · 52 L | +8.0wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f4…6fa9backed Under | 61c | 55$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.25 | 1,777 | 58.4%1,037 W · 740 L | +91.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 50c | 53.92$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.96 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked Under | 42c | 45.98$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.67 | 115 | 35.7%41 W · 74 L | -12.8wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9cef…0f4cbacked Under | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 65c | 40$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Over | 63c | 36.76$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.16 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9007…cf89backed Under | 50c | 36$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08b5…359dbacked Over | 51c | 34.84$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.77 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed Over | 68c | 33.91$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.06 | 1,379 | 50.6%698 W · 681 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x409d…8f47backed Under | 50c | 30.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.31 | 110 | 50.9%56 W · 54 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Over | 67c | 26.41$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.69 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 48c | 24.86$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.87 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5630…7574backed Under | 64c | 24.21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.71 | 163 | 55.8%91 W · 72 L | +7.9wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Over | 62c | 21.05$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.05 | 1,733 | 49%849 W · 884 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Over | 51c | 20.31$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 1,001 | 57.3%574 W · 427 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1,753 | 50.8%890 W · 863 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c3f…e6a2backed Under | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.44 | 244 | 48.8%119 W · 125 L | -14.9wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xba62…3e29backed Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 221 | 49.3%109 W · 112 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x055a…9689backed Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +2.3wins | +0.14per pick | 51cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Over | 66c | 17.72$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 10.5this page
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-2.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-3.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Kansas City RoyalsTampa Bay Rays won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 5.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Tampa Bay Rays vs. Kansas City RoyalsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.