MLB · resolved market
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc914b1455039d1c6d255982f542c22f6793f576d1c073d465e732992bd72ac04
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Tampa Bay Raysof Tampa Bay Rays, Kansas City Royals
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,535
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,592
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,535 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Tampa Bay Rays | 48c | 13,123$6,277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,845.51 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Kansas City Royals | 52c | 7,936$4,127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,126.86 | 2,310 | 52.6%1,215 W · 1,095 L | +27.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 66c | 6,649$4,388 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,260.54 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Kansas City Royals | 34c | 3,180$1,069 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,068.88 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Kansas City Royals | 34c | 3,101$1,056 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,056.29 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Kansas City Royals | 52c | 1,667$867 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$866.84 | 1,922 | 53.4%1,027 W · 895 L | +28.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa804…2a75backed Tampa Bay Rays | 47c | 1,417$666 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$751.02 | 291 | 47.1%137 W · 154 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0eb7…1f17backed Tampa Bay Rays | 49c | 1,224$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$624.49 | 350 | 56%196 W · 154 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Kansas City Royals | 54c | 1,004$537 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$537.34 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfee8…9197backed Kansas City Royals | 55c | 996.06$548 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$547.83 | 223 | 50.7%113 W · 110 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Kansas City Royals | 51c | 966.49$493 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$492.91 | 8,594 | 52.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L | +508.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Kansas City Royals | 52c | 806.28$422 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$422.13 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Kansas City Royals | 52c | 658.17$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.68 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Kansas City Royals | 52c | 500$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 5,471 | 50.5%2,763 W · 2,708 L | +21.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Kansas City Royals | 52c | 300$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Kansas City Royals | 53c | 299$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.47 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe722…57c5backed Kansas City Royals | 52c | 221.15$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 963 | 49%472 W · 491 L | -39.3wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Kansas City Royals | 52c | 209.99$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.84 | 2,413 | 49.9%1,205 W · 1,208 L | +22.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ecc…7850backed Tampa Bay Rays | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.08 | 51 | 52.9%27 W · 24 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd619…c461backed Kansas City Royals | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 647 | 52.4%339 W · 308 L | +28.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b74…0482backed Kansas City Royals | 25c | 150.8$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.01 | 522 | 28%146 W · 376 L | -57.7wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Kansas City Royals | 21c | 147.06$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.2 | 5,812 | 43.7%2,541 W · 3,271 L | -188.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66df…7ea5backed Kansas City Royals | 52c | 144.23$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 68 | 57.4%39 W · 29 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4e2…0f82backed Tampa Bay Rays | 49c | 104.51$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.3 | 151 | 43%65 W · 86 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07b1…b027backed Kansas City Royals | 39c | 102.63$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.03 | 209 | 44%92 W · 117 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ca…d984backed Tampa Bay Rays | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.04 | 384 | 53.9%207 W · 177 L | +16.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…8f79backed Kansas City Royals | 52c | 96.16$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 399 | 48.1%192 W · 207 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc23…a9f2backed Tampa Bay Rays | 49c | 96$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.96 | 468 | 54.5%255 W · 213 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…ec68backed Tampa Bay Rays | 49c | 96$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.96 | 721 | 54.2%391 W · 330 L | +20.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +144.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Tampa Bay Rays | 69c | 95.58$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.91 | 4,187 | 50.2%2,102 W · 2,085 L | +94.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dff…7fecbacked Kansas City Royals | 52c | 94.79$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.29 | 95 | 43.2%41 W · 54 L | -6.9wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x721c…d585backed Tampa Bay Rays | 65c | 93$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.55 | 77 | 54.5%42 W · 35 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked Kansas City Royals | 33c | 88$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.04 | 104 | 53.8%56 W · 48 L | +5.5wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Tampa Bay Rays | 54c | 78$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.55 | 5,149 | 54.7%2,815 W · 2,334 L | +231.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Kansas City Royals | 35c | 72.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.4 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 45c | 68.35$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.59 | 447 | 49.2%220 W · 227 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Kansas City Royals | 55c | 65$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.75 | 1,172 | 49.1%575 W · 597 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8499…950dbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 49c | 59.18$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.18 | 104 | 46.2%48 W · 56 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf213…a627backed Tampa Bay Rays | 46c | 58.7$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.7 | 689 | 42.2%291 W · 398 L | +18.7wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x256b…97bbbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 45c | 55.56$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.56 | 391 | 49.1%192 W · 199 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Kansas City Royals | 52c | 45.46$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.64 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Tampa Bay Rays | 70c | 44.37$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.11 | 1,819 | 49.3%896 W · 923 L | -24.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Kansas City Royals | 54c | 43.48$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.48 | 3,509 | 51%1,789 W · 1,720 L | +53.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf621…544ebacked Tampa Bay Rays | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.48 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -14%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38ef…8800backed Kansas City Royals | 51c | 41.74$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.29 | 425 | 48.2%205 W · 220 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Kansas City Royals | 52c | 39.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.34 | 2,995 | 47.9%1,435 W · 1,560 L | +12.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked Kansas City Royals | 45c | 33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 115 | 35.7%41 W · 74 L | -12.8wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Kansas City Royals | 52c | 29.9$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.55 | 2,172 | 39.9%866 W · 1,306 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3637…21a4backed Tampa Bay Rays | 49c | 27$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.77 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c3f…e6a2backed Tampa Bay Rays | 64c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.05 | 244 | 48.8%119 W · 125 L | -14.9wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x40d6…9892backed Tampa Bay Rays | 63c | 24.54$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.08 | 344 | 51.5%177 W · 167 L | -8.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c25…6bbcbacked Kansas City Royals | 52c | 20.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.91 | 199 | 60.3%120 W · 79 L | +21.9wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Kansas City Royals | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 639 | 43.3%277 W · 362 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x76d2…99a6backed Tampa Bay Rays | 76c | 13.34$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.2 | 80 | 53.8%43 W · 37 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)this page
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-2.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-3.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Kansas City RoyalsTampa Bay Rays won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 10.5Under won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 5.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Tampa Bay Rays vs. Kansas City RoyalsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.