MLB · resolved market
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x83802c69afd6ed41c103e7c37da5e9d9782aee1120a19079842f2d3479cffd6f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Toronto Blue Jaysof Boston Red Sox, Toronto Blue Jays
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,697
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,191
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,697 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4e05…7720backed Toronto Blue Jays | 64c | 8,835$5,655 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,180.74 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39d3…9ef0backed Boston Red Sox | 36c | 5,174$1,863 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,862.64 | 235 | 38.3%90 W · 145 L | -8.5wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bc8…2f68backed Boston Red Sox | 36c | 3,241$1,167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,166.76 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -3.7wins | -0.12per pick | 43cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Boston Red Sox | 31c | 3,239$1,004 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,003.66 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 65c | 2,260$1,458 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$802.02 | 1,909 | 53.5%1,021 W · 888 L | +29.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Toronto Blue Jays | 64c | 1,582$1,012 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$569.52 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Boston Red Sox | 30c | 1,422$421 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$421.23 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 62c | 818.47$507 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$311.02 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Toronto Blue Jays | 61c | 806.72$491 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315.73 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Toronto Blue Jays | 62c | 663.86$412 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.27 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedf0…a1d3backed Boston Red Sox | 36c | 632.78$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.8 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -3.1wins | -0.14per pick | 41cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa2b6…3d60backed Boston Red Sox | 39c | 512.82$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.26per pick | 55cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0e50…2609backed Toronto Blue Jays | 71c | 428.5$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.93 | 877 | 50.4%442 W · 435 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Boston Red Sox | 36c | 420$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.2 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Boston Red Sox | 35c | 404.44$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.55 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8328…e5ebbacked Boston Red Sox | 36c | 333.33$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 93 | 39.8%37 W · 56 L | -6.8wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Boston Red Sox | 36c | 300$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Boston Red Sox | 37c | 274.99$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.75 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b1…e904backed Boston Red Sox | 37c | 256.98$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.08 | 693 | 51.9%360 W · 333 L | +26.3wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52be…801ebacked Boston Red Sox | 41c | 243.9$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 118 | 46.6%55 W · 63 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Toronto Blue Jays | 63c | 235.64$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.19 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x348c…c8efbacked Boston Red Sox | 36c | 183.33$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 104 | 38.5%40 W · 64 L | -7.7wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Boston Red Sox | 10c | 104.45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fce…63d5backed Boston Red Sox | 38c | 102.32$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.88 | 273 | 45.4%124 W · 149 L | -13.7wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Boston Red Sox | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.5 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8482…3f7abacked Toronto Blue Jays | 64c | 100$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 1,062 | 49.2%523 W · 539 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba2…d212backed Toronto Blue Jays | 60c | 75$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.75 | 920 | 46%423 W · 497 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Toronto Blue Jays | 69c | 67.63$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.26 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29d8…e1b3backed Boston Red Sox | 38c | 52.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 443 | 45.6%202 W · 241 L | -10.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Boston Red Sox | 37c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 1,172 | 49.1%575 W · 597 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Boston Red Sox | 38c | 49.65$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.65 | 1,083 | 56.3%610 W · 473 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9565…ec9abacked Toronto Blue Jays | 63c | 46.03$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.03 | 153 | 49%75 W · 78 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Boston Red Sox | 33c | 42$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Toronto Blue Jays | 65c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.2 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x51f4…3e21backed Boston Red Sox | 38c | 39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 250 | 34.8%87 W · 163 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5afc…2995backed Boston Red Sox | 36c | 33.97$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.23 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56ac…fcc5backed Toronto Blue Jays | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 66c | 22.45$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.63 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Toronto Blue Jays | 63c | 21.6$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.99 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24a1…32f2backed Toronto Blue Jays | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 207 | 45.9%95 W · 112 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed Toronto Blue Jays | 63c | 16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.92 | 1,464 | 63.5%929 W · 535 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)this page
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-2.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-3.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-2.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red SoxToronto Blue Jays won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 10.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 11.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 12.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 6.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 7.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red SoxNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.