MLB · resolved market
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa827841700d742cf3dbc20e621fe736534f552b178f0e8e44e172468ee444dea
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,154
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,194
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,154 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Under | 53c | 4,706$2,483 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,223.45 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 51c | 2,580$1,318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,318.36 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 38c | 1,844$697 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$696.92 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3265…d5b8backed Under | 58c | 1,000$580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +2.8wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0249…5b4bbacked Over | 46c | 987.98$454 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$454.47 | 252 | 49.2%124 W · 128 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 50c | 604.78$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300.66 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ca…d984backed Under | 32c | 312.5$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.5 | 383 | 53.8%206 W · 177 L | +16.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 68c | 285.24$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.96 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 55c | 255$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.05 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfd…b845backed Over | 70c | 250$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175 | 268 | 60.4%162 W · 106 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Under | 30c | 250$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 51c | 250$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.5 | 1,865 | 52%970 W · 895 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01ae…55f8backed Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 97 | 51.5%50 W · 47 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51f4…3e21backed Under | 33c | 152$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.24 | 250 | 34.8%87 W · 163 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Over | 56c | 112.66$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.09 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07cd…fbebbacked Over | 55c | 100.85$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.47 | 435 | 60%261 W · 174 L | +13.0wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf66e…14b7backed Over | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 176 | 59.7%105 W · 71 L | +12.0wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 56c | 97.38$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.12 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Over | 33c | 91.2$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.79 | 1,708 | 49.9%852 W · 856 L | -17.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 69c | 85.54$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.66 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Over | 23c | 80.62$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.37 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Under | 32c | 65.64$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.64 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d92…9748backed Over | 57c | 64.91$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.29per pick | 49cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb70…52c0backed Under | 54c | 64.81$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.81 | 174 | 62.6%109 W · 65 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 27c | 64.37$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.19 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x976e…8453backed Over | 70c | 64$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.8 | 162 | 74.1%120 W · 42 L | +9.6wins | +0.06per pick | 68cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x46b1…428cbacked Over | 54c | 60.97$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.7 | 191 | 63.4%121 W · 70 L | +14.3wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 45c | 60.63$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.51 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b92…7c8fbacked Over | 43c | 58.6$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 70 | 58.6%41 W · 29 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14f3…0796backed Over | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 204 | 56.9%116 W · 88 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 63c | 39.97$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.86 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 30c | 38$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.6 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc89…095cbacked Over | 51c | 38$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.38 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9991…36b8backed Over | 50c | 35.7$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.85 | 260 | 63.8%166 W · 94 L | +7.9wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 53c | 29.92$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.17 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Under | 53c | 28.87$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.57 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24a1…32f2backed Over | 57c | 24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 207 | 45.9%95 W · 112 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb518…3403backed Over | 68c | 22.06$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Over | 69c | 20.2$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.94 | 1,001 | 57.3%574 W · 427 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 7.5this page
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-2.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-3.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-2.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red SoxToronto Blue Jays won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 10.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 11.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 12.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 6.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red SoxNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.