MLB · resolved market
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2569127160ed852b7b80fbe87bffb475df47e5e5005ea4e8084d6742f4007258
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Toronto Blue Jaysof Toronto Blue Jays, Boston Red Sox
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,169
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,415
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,169 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Boston Red Sox | 46c | 6,090$2,809 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,809.28 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Toronto Blue Jays | 54c | 5,572$3,027 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,545.01 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Boston Red Sox | 64c | 3,178$2,021 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,020.7 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e04…564dbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 36c | 1,457$525 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$932.71 | 981 | 49.8%489 W · 492 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Toronto Blue Jays | 37c | 779.42$286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$493.35 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…83dabacked Toronto Blue Jays | 37c | 675.68$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$425.68 | 138 | 51.4%71 W · 67 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0249…5b4bbacked Boston Red Sox | 29c | 554.94$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.93 | 252 | 49.2%124 W · 128 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c54…bebbbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 40c | 550.5$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330.65 | 63 | 54%34 W · 29 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd3…5896backed Toronto Blue Jays | 37c | 351.39$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.38 | 174 | 46%80 W · 94 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Boston Red Sox | 63c | 300.62$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.85 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c58…e330backed Toronto Blue Jays | 56c | 296.03$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.58 | 880 | 53.8%473 W · 407 L | +41.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0684…d1fabacked Toronto Blue Jays | 34c | 294.12$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.12 | 70 | 37.1%26 W · 44 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Toronto Blue Jays | 64c | 230$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.46 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Boston Red Sox | 64c | 222.99$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.71 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31b7…21fbbacked Boston Red Sox | 35c | 200$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -2.5wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x16c8…1badbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 156 | 39.1%61 W · 95 L | -11.5wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf213…a627backed Toronto Blue Jays | 35c | 200$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130 | 689 | 42.2%291 W · 398 L | +18.7wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 71c | 198.86$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.67 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Boston Red Sox | 64c | 179.99$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.89 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Toronto Blue Jays | 34c | 175.65$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.93 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Boston Red Sox | 44c | 157.42$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.05 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Boston Red Sox | 43c | 138.95$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.95 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Toronto Blue Jays | 36c | 129.4$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.81 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Boston Red Sox | 43c | 110.51$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.49 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ed2…0ddabacked Boston Red Sox | 65c | 102.32$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.51 | 577 | 47.7%275 W · 302 L | +7.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8adc…ceafbacked Boston Red Sox | 65c | 70.77$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 226 | 53.1%120 W · 106 L | -9.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Toronto Blue Jays | 35c | 70.77$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f50…069bbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 36c | 69.62$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.62 | 163 | 45.4%74 W · 89 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Toronto Blue Jays | 35c | 62.87$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.87 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc23…a9f2backed Boston Red Sox | 64c | 61$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.04 | 468 | 54.5%255 W · 213 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…ec68backed Boston Red Sox | 64c | 61$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.04 | 721 | 54.2%391 W · 330 L | +20.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +144.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Boston Red Sox | 49c | 55.93$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.41 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0e50…2609backed Toronto Blue Jays | 41c | 52.4$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.92 | 877 | 50.4%442 W · 435 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6add…6992backed Toronto Blue Jays | 58c | 51.72$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.72 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Toronto Blue Jays | 35c | 45.6$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.69 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1df6…cba0backed Boston Red Sox | 37c | 44.37$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.41 | 1,445 | 50.3%727 W · 718 L | -27.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe14a…62bebacked Toronto Blue Jays | 69c | 42.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.27 | 151 | 45.7%69 W · 82 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97e5…d1f0backed Toronto Blue Jays | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Boston Red Sox | 41c | 26.1$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Boston Red Sox | 65c | 22$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.23 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1bd…b053backed Toronto Blue Jays | 71c | 21.04$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.1 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…5273backed Toronto Blue Jays | 70c | 17.79$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.34 | 536 | 44.6%239 W · 297 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Toronto Blue Jays | 71c | 16.73$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.85 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x848f…612fbacked Boston Red Sox | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 93 | 60.2%56 W · 37 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)this page
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-2.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-3.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-2.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red SoxToronto Blue Jays won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 10.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 11.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 12.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 6.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 7.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red SoxNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.