Tennis · resolved market
ITF Tokyo: Eri Shimizu vs Mutsumi Uemura
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x839076630bb0fdedb69370c0be64eb7cdaf699114cc932cb477ac1dbedca6de1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Eri Shimizuof Eri Shimizu, Mutsumi Uemura
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $54,070
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $55,918
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $54,070 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4d7a…70b6backed Mutsumi Uemura | 1c | 14,400$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +2.3wins | +0.19per pick | 14cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7288…9ec5backed Mutsumi Uemura | 1c | 7,479$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.79 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +5.7wins | +0.29per pick | 16cpaid | +117.9%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked Mutsumi Uemura | 1c | 6,500$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 108 | 9.3%10 W · 98 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc07d…b1dfbacked Eri Shimizu | 58c | 5,400$3,137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,262.88 | 2,383 | 55.6%1,326 W · 1,057 L | +49.3wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9ec…aa22backed Mutsumi Uemura | 1c | 4,859$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.59 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | +4.9wins | +0.16per pick | 17cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6096…e6d9backed Mutsumi Uemura | 1c | 2,250$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -4.5wins | -0.16per pick | 48cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8ba3…9a44backed Mutsumi Uemura | 2c | 1,500$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ce8…4dd6backed Mutsumi Uemura | 43c | 809.7$348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$348.17 | 579 | 50.9%295 W · 284 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Mutsumi Uemura | 20c | 770.08$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.27 | 4,921 | 38.7%1,905 W · 3,016 L | -20.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e67…dad6backed Mutsumi Uemura | 20c | 715$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.85 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x544a…1542backed Eri Shimizu | 80c | 640$510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Mutsumi Uemura | 43c | 600$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258 | 2,761 | 53.9%1,487 W · 1,274 L | +73.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed Mutsumi Uemura | 25c | 571.98$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.74 | 1,822 | 41%747 W · 1,075 L | -30.2wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00d4…4c46backed Mutsumi Uemura | 14c | 517$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.46 | 482 | 35.9%173 W · 309 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ca2…088ebacked Mutsumi Uemura | 16c | 517$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.8 | 197 | 44.7%88 W · 109 L | +17.8wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x99f7…1a59backed Mutsumi Uemura | 16c | 497$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.52 | 694 | 38%264 W · 430 L | +21.0wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a72…0a38backed Mutsumi Uemura | 11c | 462$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.47 | 452 | 35.8%162 W · 290 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61fa…7f62backed Eri Shimizu | 71c | 389.48$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.21 | 464 | 53%246 W · 218 L | -10.6wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x300d…780dbacked Mutsumi Uemura | 32c | 300$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.2 | 181 | 32.6%59 W · 122 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5ae…3e6cbacked Mutsumi Uemura | 31c | 300$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.4 | 111 | 41.4%46 W · 65 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…2b70backed Mutsumi Uemura | 32c | 300$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.2 | 399 | 41.9%167 W · 232 L | +13.6wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Mutsumi Uemura | 16c | 282.81$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.87 | 8,505 | 42.6%3,619 W · 4,886 L | -166.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90bb…531fbacked Mutsumi Uemura | 28c | 200$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.5 | 199 | 41.7%83 W · 116 L | +12.3wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Mutsumi Uemura | 16c | 195$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.44 | 6,449 | 46.3%2,987 W · 3,462 L | -42.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8e…08c1backed Mutsumi Uemura | 49c | 160$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.33 | 2,118 | 55.9%1,185 W · 933 L | +40.1wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb155…ca84backed Mutsumi Uemura | 19c | 151$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.85 | 920 | 46.6%429 W · 491 L | -14.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Eri Shimizu | 66c | 136$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.04 | 4,602 | 48.3%2,223 W · 2,379 L | +34.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Mutsumi Uemura | 13c | 133.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.94 | 5,416 | 48.6%2,633 W · 2,783 L | +14.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Eri Shimizu | 64c | 123.36$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.66 | 7,816 | 50.6%3,958 W · 3,858 L | +95.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2c0…fad2backed Eri Shimizu | 32c | 49.52$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.67 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +5.3wins | +0.19per pick | 21cpaid | +74.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8711…d2d0backed Eri Shimizu | 61c | 49.18$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.18 | 433 | 58.4%253 W · 180 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x103f…86dbbacked Mutsumi Uemura | 67c | 49.07$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.07 | 163 | 62%101 W · 62 L | -7.4wins | -0.05per pick | 66cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3db7…375cbacked Eri Shimizu | 35c | 43.71$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.26 | 159 | 31.4%50 W · 109 L | +15.3wins | +0.10per pick | 22cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcf08…12a3backed Eri Shimizu | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 235 | 51.9%122 W · 113 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3e…5a7abacked Mutsumi Uemura | 59c | 31.53$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 896 | 63.7%571 W · 325 L | +63.2wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.