Fifa International · resolved market
Will Tanzania win on 2025-12-23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x839448730cc716f3f52c4a9b968bc113d6a73152dc2eaebf74cf1d07068af2af
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $79,022
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $81,854
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $79,022 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4da5…e32ebacked Yes | 9c | 11,200$1,008 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,008 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | -3.4wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d43…bc5ebacked Yes | 9c | 10,000$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900 | 96 | 36.5%35 W · 61 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 6c | 5,229$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322.07 | 4,595 | 40.3%1,850 W · 2,745 L | -91.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f7b…d405backed Yes | 9c | 5,004$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450.36 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90e0…ff4cbacked Yes | 2c | 4,206$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.34 | 44 | 6.8%3 W · 41 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | +37.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x587b…2622backed Yes | 2c | 2,216$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 259 | 54.8%142 W · 117 L | +17.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x50dd…c186backed Yes | 9c | 1,936$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.25 | 31 | 9.7%3 W · 28 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -77.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9a2…a79abacked Yes | 10c | 1,700$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 162 | 25.3%41 W · 121 L | -10.8wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes | 3c | 1,518$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.43 | 1,252 | 39.2%491 W · 761 L | +6.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Yes | 9c | 1,500$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 224 | 21%47 W · 177 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 3c | 1,458$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.78 | 3,696 | 36.9%1,364 W · 2,332 L | -44.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe18a…fd87backed Yes | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 192 | 24.5%47 W · 145 L | -7.5wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c4…5919backed Yes | 3c | 1,000$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 13cpaid | -88.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bb6…b263backed Yes | 2c | 924.4$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19d3…a652backed Yes | 7c | 642.86$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea61…cc32backed Yes | 10c | 500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29f1…ce5fbacked Yes | 10c | 450$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Yes | 11c | 393$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.8 | 300 | 31%93 W · 207 L | -5.8wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x873a…2066backed Yes | 5c | 389.83$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.56 | 70 | 32.9%23 W · 47 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf934…8858backed Yes | 9c | 300$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2962…0029backed Yes | 8c | 250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x700a…68e1backed Yes | 10c | 249.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.95 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc71f…bd62backed Yes | 9c | 247.44$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.31 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -2.9wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Yes | 5c | 223$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 70 | 34.3%24 W · 46 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb82b…3a09backed Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 45 | 33.3%15 W · 30 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38f8…95c0backed Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 88 | 38.6%34 W · 54 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a23…97a7backed Yes | 10c | 175.68$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.93 | 70 | 30%21 W · 49 L | -4.8wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3880…ab7dbacked Yes | 9c | 162.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 87 | 34.5%30 W · 57 L | -8.6wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -32%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3e24…c7e6backed Yes | 8c | 151.11$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked Yes | 9c | 149.14$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.91 | 396 | 21%83 W · 313 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23e6…7bbfbacked Yes | 8c | 147.76$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.82 | 177 | 27.1%48 W · 129 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa543…d47ebacked Yes | 10c | 120$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 30cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d02…aa1ebacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc2eb…e530backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Tanzania win on 2025-12-23?this page
- Will Nigeria vs. Tanzania end in a draw?No won
- Will Nigeria win on 2025-12-23?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.