Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x839dcd54deac9a484f9d66616488dcfcf90e3d39d46f84eb2ca8e434b972c28c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,296
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,751
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,296 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 4c | 999.99$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 16c | 558.37$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.34 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x938d…8674backed Yes | 21c | 388.01$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.49 | 467 | 33.4%156 W · 311 L | +21.4wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 79c | 367.29$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.1 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf56c…ad84backed Yes | 4c | 300$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 507 | 3.4%17 W · 490 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…943ebacked Yes | 27c | 189.26$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.41 | 40 | 27.5%11 W · 29 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +139.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 7c | 150$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 19c | 93.47$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.92 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0da…4162backed Yes | 28c | 90.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.48 | 149 | 53.7%80 W · 69 L | +9.2wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 21c | 82.87$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.39 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 27c | 80$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes | 18c | 71.01$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.73 | 695 | 20%139 W · 556 L | -44.4wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 20c | 69.53$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.63 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1465…e0dbbacked No | 75c | 66.65$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.66 | 104 | 45.2%47 W · 57 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10e0…92e4backed Yes | 26c | 65.77$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 277 | 44%122 W · 155 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 26c | 65.4$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.18 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 75c | 65.32$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.32 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed No | 72c | 65$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.43 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 77c | 59.05$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.83 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 18c | 58$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked Yes | 29c | 56.9$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 74c | 53$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.97 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…3b5dbacked Yes | 27c | 47.74$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.89 | 137 | 38.7%53 W · 84 L | +13.3wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…0379backed No | 70c | 45.64$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.69 | 548 | 57.5%315 W · 233 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6d0…d21ebacked Yes | 28c | 45.58$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.58 | 183 | 37.7%69 W · 114 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9008…09f0backed Yes | 26c | 42.3$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 119 | 39.5%47 W · 72 L | +8.7wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaa84…e985backed Yes | 30c | 42$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 407 | 39.3%160 W · 247 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 28c | 41.89$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.73 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3164…3c65backed No | 75c | 41.88$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.54 | 444 | 65.3%290 W · 154 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 72c | 38.57$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 75c | 37$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 68c | 32$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.24 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2a…e862backed No | 74c | 31$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.98 | 68 | 61.8%42 W · 26 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 75c | 29.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd1b…da1ebacked No | 74c | 28.14$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.3 | 259 | 46.3%120 W · 139 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 71c | 28.1$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.11 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6282…aaabbacked No | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 421 | 51.8%218 W · 203 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 72c | 23.37$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.54 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x62a8…2132backed No | 77c | 19.57$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 714 | 64.3%459 W · 255 L | -37.4wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 74c | 19.37$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.12 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b38…52c8backed No | 80c | 18.49$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.73 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 74cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 77c | 18.03$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.12 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6409…9411backed No | 73c | 17.72$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.72 | 825 | 62.2%513 W · 312 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 75c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b18…2639backed No | 74c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.16 | 438 | 42%184 W · 254 L | -14.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 76c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.6 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82ce…e92abacked No | 71c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.35 | 124 | 67.7%84 W · 40 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x837c…d774backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 45 | 62.2%28 W · 17 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on June 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on June 2?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on June 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C or higher on June 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.