TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on June 2?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$12,078
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$14,435

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,078 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 84 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No38c520$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.245,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x942e…be27backed No19c418.34$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.182,01061.5%1,237 W · 773 L-1.1wins0.00per pick62cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x10e0…92e4backed Yes77c416.74$322 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.9427744%122 W · 155 L+0.7wins0.00per pick44cpaid-8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd24b…187dbacked Yes49c415.52$204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$211.6861365.3%400 W · 213 L+43.8wins+0.07per pick58cpaid+15.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No56c305.9$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.085,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes50c251.13$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.121,31245%590 W · 722 L+33.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+2.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6e41…5e0cbacked Yes46c246.01$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.091,06147.9%508 W · 553 L+32.9wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x01eb…b04abacked Yes44c232.87$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$130.449341.9%39 W · 54 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No47c203.09$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.223,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No32c196$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.596,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xeda0…7dffbacked No27c195.29$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.9469520%139 W · 556 L-44.4wins-0.06per pick26cpaid-53.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No45c190.79$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.7212,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc120…a7e3backed No44c118$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.961,29954.1%703 W · 596 L+24.7wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x507c…c876backed Yes39c115.71$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.123834.2%13 W · 25 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-9.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb49f…1821backed Yes42c113.33$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.431,06153.2%564 W · 497 L+33.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x96b1…8136backed Yes51c113.01$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.14450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8882…03fbbacked Yes46c109.3$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.351733.3%172 W · 345 L-6.1wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb0a5…0a36backed No44c107.6$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$472,08651.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L-45.0wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcd91…32b8backed No63c107$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.241,42852.1%744 W · 684 L-21.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-10.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No39c102.08$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.1612,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes36c100$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$641,32232.2%426 W · 896 L-43.7wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-14.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb501…9a53backed Yes38c100$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.6317536%63 W · 112 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+8.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2a87…a55abacked Yes44c100$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$561,11235.1%390 W · 722 L-13.2wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd717…3b85backed No30c85$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.212,05057.4%1,177 W · 873 L+72.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8842…dfa7backed Yes38c82.72$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.6245236.5%165 W · 287 L+20.0wins+0.04per pick32cpaid+7.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1465…e0dbbacked No61c81.94$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.9810445.2%47 W · 57 L+2.8wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes37c80$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.43,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6282…aaabbacked Yes30c66.67$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.6742151.8%218 W · 203 L-4.0wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8ad3…e651backed Yes30c65.63$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.6333351.7%172 W · 161 L-7.3wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-3.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x938d…8674backed Yes50c64.93$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.6146733.4%156 W · 311 L+21.4wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+12%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2eb8…0d00backed Yes76c64.88$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.3820662.1%128 W · 78 L-14.0wins-0.07per pick69cpaid-13.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed No70c64.37$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.0610,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4676…b720backed Yes47c63.15$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.2698160.6%594 W · 387 L+9.2wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd9b5…9db1backed No39c62.46$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.1188650.2%445 W · 441 L-14.4wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-11.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x13bc…f77ebacked Yes48c62.35$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.354839.6%19 W · 29 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-11.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1f85…7b02backed No46c62.06$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.852,06855.9%1,156 W · 912 L+44.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb537…14ccbacked No65c61.92$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4041460.1%249 W · 165 L-21.5wins-0.05per pick65cpaid-8.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb0d6…7475backed No54c60.02$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.311,52552.6%802 W · 723 L+2.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7b20…eb02backed Yes50c59.85$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.934846.6%162 W · 186 L+14.6wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+10.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9b12…c2d5backed No47c56.28$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.192,09056.7%1,186 W · 904 L+60.1wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No62c55.84$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.549,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe6d0…d21ebacked Yes53c53$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.6518337.7%69 W · 114 L-8.1wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-14.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4248…60abbacked No39c52.81$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.692,21958.7%1,303 W · 916 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked No62c50.66$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.412,26239.6%895 W · 1,367 L-56.8wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x865d…47aabacked Yes38c50$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3116432.9%54 W · 110 L+12.7wins+0.08per pick25cpaid+47.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x9cb3…1367backed No29c48.21$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.121,55433.1%515 W · 1,039 L-66.6wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-27.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4f1d…8de2backed No53c46.03$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.171,54360.5%934 W · 609 L-19.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x71b5…6dabbacked No47c45.79$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.564942.9%21 W · 28 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-6.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No43c45.3$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.5643563.9%278 W · 157 L+13.6wins+0.03per pick61cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe3a0…b7a2backed No45c43.51$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.64546.7%21 W · 24 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes36c41.24$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.383,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x43b0…1402backed Yes51c40$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.616339.9%65 W · 98 L-3.3wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-0.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdedd…17e1backed No41c38.42$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.792,43260.4%1,470 W · 962 L+30.2wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc0af…cc7dbacked No48c35.39$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.164647.8%22 W · 24 L+2.4wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+15.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x90e2…fc3fbacked No49c35$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.154148.8%20 W · 21 L+2.4wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+17.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdf2a…e862backed No65c31$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.076861.8%42 W · 26 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick64cpaid-4.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x463d…abb2backed No69c31$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.284139%16 W · 25 L-7.3wins-0.18per pick57cpaid-28.8%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x1798…1ce9backed No66c30.42$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202,42844.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L-31.5wins-0.01per pick46cpaid+2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xadfb…f17cbacked Yes37c30$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.94047.5%19 W · 21 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+8.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbb81…9b1bbacked Yes48c30$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.6944.4%4 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.11per pick55cpaid-25.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xeb54…d452backed No66c29.99$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.794,52565.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L-134.0wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1abc…45e7backed No60c27$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.282,09958.3%1,224 W · 875 L+83.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x59a2…e90abacked Yes62c25.93$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.79633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x18ae…314cbacked No66c25.15$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.61,21129.8%361 W · 850 L-7.6wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-12.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbff7…554fbacked No48c25.1$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.981,02660.8%624 W · 402 L+11.0wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5566…7c29backed No60c25$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.1228456%159 W · 125 L-4.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4bea…bab9backed Yes51c25$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.32263.6%14 W · 8 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick69cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb36f…b8a8backed Yes40c25$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$153748.6%18 W · 19 L+3.8wins+0.10per pick38cpaid+30%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6c2a…b7b5backed Yes54c24.93$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.541662.5%10 W · 6 L+2.1wins+0.13per pick50cpaid+30%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x69f0…fb27backed No59c24$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.162,11858.2%1,233 W · 885 L+78.8wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0a0c…a853backed No63c23.79$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.992,24934.2%769 W · 1,480 L+11.6wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ff6…e4fbbacked No47c23.76$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.1765353.4%349 W · 304 L+6.0wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaf3c…ddd0backed No66c22.94$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.1446667.6%315 W · 151 L+0.8wins0.00per pick67cpaid+334.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x89cf…76b3backed No67c22.39$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154158.5%24 W · 17 L-3.3wins-0.08per pick67cpaid-16.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4030…bc87backed No67c22$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.743265.6%21 W · 11 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick67cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked No47c21.71$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.319262.5%23 W · 903 L-379.9wins-0.41per pick44cpaid-90.2%equal weight6-0.40 edge/pick
0xcdbc…bd73backed No66c21.08$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.9291861.5%565 W · 353 L+1.6wins0.00per pick61cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x93f0…b231backed No53c20$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.55058%29 W · 21 L-3.0wins-0.06per pick64cpaid-14.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes53c20$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.355,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0b18…2639backed No61c20$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.243842%184 W · 254 L-14.7wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-9.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6409…9411backed No66c19.85$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.182562.2%513 W · 312 L-23.9wins-0.03per pick65cpaid-8.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x20fe…bcf0backed Yes65c18.09$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.33250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick69cpaid-23.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x41fa…7cc4backed No65c17.3$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.1679255.2%437 W · 355 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa98a…a5a8backed No73c14.2$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.372,01567.7%1,365 W · 650 L+1.8wins0.00per pick68cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.