Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on June 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7dd47dd72612960a1d1b4aa684d6ae167d465f3c72545dce497f1d38330bdd11
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,438
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,833
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,438 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc4cc…2a5ebacked Yes | 61c | 1,139$693 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$692.53 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | -12.1wins | -0.24per pick | 68cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x8302…8b44backed Yes | 21c | 1,005$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 117 | 37.6%44 W · 73 L | -8.8wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 64c | 495.61$316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.95 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 28c | 355.09$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.87 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 55c | 315.63$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.7 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 58c | 305.9$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.05 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 46c | 296.71$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.78 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1465…e0dbbacked Yes | 19c | 263.14$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 104 | 45.2%47 W · 57 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 20c | 224.99$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 14c | 215.19$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.88 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 63c | 193.19$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.28 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x10e0…92e4backed Yes | 32c | 188.11$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.17 | 277 | 44%122 W · 155 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01eb…b04abacked Yes | 26c | 164.66$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.52 | 93 | 41.9%39 W · 54 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 78c | 157.04$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.55 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 17c | 142$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.18 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed Yes | 47c | 127.31$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.22 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3507…71d7backed No | 80c | 125.36$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.36 | 333 | 73%243 W · 90 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 73cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 16c | 123.12$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.31 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 44c | 107$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.91 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd1b…da1ebacked Yes | 18c | 100.24$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.45 | 259 | 46.3%120 W · 139 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb501…9a53backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 175 | 36%63 W · 112 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.85 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked No | 67c | 96.4$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.21 | 695 | 20%139 W · 556 L | -44.4wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 50c | 96.05$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.48 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 54c | 84.97$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.9 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 76c | 77$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.33 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 40c | 72.47$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.27 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 20c | 71.2$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.53 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8882…03fbbacked Yes | 41c | 68.34$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.35 | 517 | 33.3%172 W · 345 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf077…b207backed Yes | 24c | 65$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.79 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 70c | 62.46$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.91 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 21c | 61.64$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96b1…8136backed Yes | 54c | 50.11$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed No | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 481 | 49.5%238 W · 243 L | -26.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc7…6c9abacked No | 63c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 76 | 47.4%36 W · 40 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 57c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.4 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 60c | 48.06$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.31 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf3c…ddd0backed No | 80c | 46.87$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.37 | 466 | 67.6%315 W · 151 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +334.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed Yes | 46c | 46.08$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.23 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13bc…f77ebacked Yes | 31c | 45.45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 48 | 39.6%19 W · 29 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 79c | 45$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.61 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2e…c9e1backed No | 34c | 43.16$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.49 | 204 | 31.9%65 W · 139 L | -14.5wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 58c | 40.27$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.92 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 37c | 39.57$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.83 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54b3…f0bebacked No | 76c | 37$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 82 | 70.7%58 W · 24 L | +7.0wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4d47…10b4backed No | 46c | 32.02$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.29 | 223 | 44.8%100 W · 123 L | -7.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 76c | 32$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2a…e862backed No | 80c | 31$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 68 | 61.8%42 W · 26 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 41c | 29.98$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.69 | 435 | 63.9%278 W · 157 L | +13.6wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2032…e43ebacked No | 74c | 28.04$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.41 | 180 | 60%108 W · 72 L | -21.2wins | -0.12per pick | 72cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5566…7c29backed No | 57c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.71 | 284 | 56%159 W · 125 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 57c | 24.42$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.61 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 66c | 23.83$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.08 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d4d…1674backed No | 48c | 22.79$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.92 | 69 | 72.5%50 W · 19 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe59d…b97bbacked Yes | 76c | 19.35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 524 | 46.2%242 W · 282 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 76c | 18.83$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.55 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bea…bab9backed Yes | 65c | 18.59$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 69cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 80c | 17.39$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.48 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on June 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on June 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on June 2?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C or higher on June 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.