WNBA · resolved market
Las Vegas Aces vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 194.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x839f1f11a395103c3d9d837c95c6f54e5f0f57d27c4c2ec11d69bc587a6737a3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,814
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,840
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,814 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in WNBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xae82…faf0backed Under | 51c | 3,522$1,808 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,713.77 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 52c | 2,513$1,305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,207.7 | 1,765 | 51.7%912 W · 853 L | +53.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb07…e2ccbacked Over | 48c | 2,000$960 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$960 | 96 | 50%48 W · 48 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1681…5032backed Under | 53c | 725.48$382 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$343.96 | 71 | 59.2%42 W · 29 L | +5.7wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Over | 11c | 657.71$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.39 | 371 | 41.2%153 W · 218 L | -13.3wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57b2…9da2backed Over | 48c | 650.13$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312.06 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6407…d360backed Over | 49c | 612.24$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 87 | 43.7%38 W · 49 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 48c | 541.06$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.89 | 262 | 47.7%125 W · 137 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x584f…54b9backed Over | 51c | 493$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.71 | 157 | 46.5%73 W · 84 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Over | 48c | 394.28$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.31 | 399 | 47.1%188 W · 211 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e75…47e1backed Over | 48c | 369.86$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.41 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Over | 48c | 341.72$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.03 | 386 | 45.9%177 W · 209 L | -15.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5659…7a6bbacked Over | 48c | 276$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.48 | 307 | 34.2%105 W · 202 L | -28.2wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…700cbacked Over | 48c | 274.96$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.98 | 149 | 47.7%71 W · 78 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Over | 48c | 273.86$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.74 | 922 | 48.8%450 W · 472 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bec…8d52backed Over | 48c | 257.29$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.82 | 58 | 39.7%23 W · 35 L | -5.2wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9aca…61fdbacked Under | 50c | 256.46$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.5 | 141 | 48.9%69 W · 72 L | -6.0wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 47c | 224.46$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.35 | 893 | 49.4%441 W · 452 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a51…b2b6backed Over | 52c | 217.58$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.14 | 65 | 44.6%29 W · 36 L | -4.8wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Under | 49c | 203$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.53 | 179 | 46.9%84 W · 95 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcdf…93b2backed Under | 54c | 188$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 50c | 150$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 837 | 48.1%403 W · 434 L | +2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…c7a2backed Over | 48c | 145.83$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb904…3ef8backed Under | 57c | 144.26$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.32 | 44 | 61.4%27 W · 17 L | +4.4wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1015…c873backed Over | 48c | 122.72$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.83 | 37 | 54.1%20 W · 17 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfdd…e70ebacked Over | 47c | 106$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.82 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf505…8862backed Under | 49c | 101.44$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.44 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.15per pick | 54cpaid | +26%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd443…5f71backed Over | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.05 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d18…2365backed Under | 56c | 100$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 84 | 42.9%36 W · 48 L | -10.7wins | -0.13per pick | 56cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 51c | 86.28$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 712 | 45.4%323 W · 389 L | -19.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9930…696ebacked Under | 53c | 65.64$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.85 | 85 | 49.4%42 W · 43 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x305c…146abacked Under | 49c | 61$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.11 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 51c | 52.97$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.96 | 749 | 42.3%317 W · 432 L | -21.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x118d…d432backed Over | 51c | 45.9$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.41 | 71 | 47.9%34 W · 37 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x237f…e76ebacked Over | 49c | 40.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.87 | 89 | 39.3%35 W · 54 L | -8.0wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9755…ab85backed Over | 48c | 40.6$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.49 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x329d…5a92backed Over | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 72 | 48.6%35 W · 37 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Over | 43c | 39.56$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.01 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ed7…aae7backed Over | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3c…35cfbacked Over | 49c | 32$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.52 | 84 | 38.1%32 W · 52 L | -7.7wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfe99…506bbacked Under | 56c | 26.79$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.79 | 52 | 38.5%20 W · 32 L | -6.0wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc846…c413backed Over | 49c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 184 | 41.8%77 W · 107 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c34…b7adbacked Under | 54c | 23.15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.65 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7302…d7f4backed Over | 48c | 22.92$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70b1…73b2backed Over | 49c | 20.42$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Las Vegas Aces vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 194.5this page
- A'ja Wilson: Rebounds O/U 9.5Yes won
- Las Vegas Aces vs. Indiana FeverLas Vegas Aces won
- Las Vegas Aces vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 192.5Under won
- Las Vegas Aces vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 193.5Under won
- Las Vegas Aces vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 195.5Under won
- Spread: Indiana Fever (-1.5)Las Vegas Aces won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.