Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on August 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x83bb01de6d91070c2e4f0c9b40f208d6a7351020cd0d25809c503bb1e3c89f53
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,738
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,056
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,738 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 14c | 687.51$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$592.31 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda58…6009backed No | 77c | 512.32$394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$393.92 | 85 | 60%51 W · 34 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 14c | 405.5$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$348.3 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 17c | 322.24$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.13 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b8e…f599backed Yes | 14c | 241$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.29 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 18cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 30c | 202.98$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.16 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c6…2b25backed No | 68c | 201.38$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.94 | 329 | 58.7%193 W · 136 L | +17.9wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked Yes | 52c | 191.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.64 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbe…b95ebacked Yes | 64c | 188.3$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.7 | 419 | 66.6%279 W · 140 L | +36.9wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed No | 32c | 180.66$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.37 | 618 | 21.2%131 W · 487 L | -34.2wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 28c | 140$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.5 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x83dd…1517backed Yes | 45c | 111.2$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.2 | 79 | 57%45 W · 34 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 24c | 109.11$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.99 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 25c | 108.28$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.1 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 14c | 107.14$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.14 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b7…f43cbacked Yes | 14c | 103.88$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.25 | 308 | 34.4%106 W · 202 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58b9…e12fbacked Yes | 15c | 101$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.85 | 132 | 54.5%72 W · 60 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x012f…400dbacked Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87 | 348 | 31%108 W · 240 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 53c | 88.85$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.18 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 49c | 83.33$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.46 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x67a3…2b91backed Yes | 76c | 82.04$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.38 | 38 | 84.2%32 W · 6 L | +5.7wins | +0.15per pick | 69cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 20c | 81.02$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.38 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…a526backed Yes | 73c | 76.92$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.83 | 154 | 66.9%103 W · 51 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dde…71f5backed Yes | 79c | 76.35$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.35 | 48 | 66.7%32 W · 16 L | +4.4wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 26c | 70.87$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.29 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 62c | 65.74$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.99 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x875e…e6b5backed Yes | 76c | 65.1$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 81 | 76.5%62 W · 19 L | +14.7wins | +0.18per pick | 58cpaid | +39%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes | 25c | 59.63$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.68 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 43c | 55.84$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.74 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x186d…8bfebacked Yes | 60c | 51$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 191 | 66.5%127 W · 64 L | +6.9wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 48c | 50.62$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.29 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 73c | 43.44$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.6 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaee7…8834backed No | 70c | 43.04$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 125 | 47.2%59 W · 66 L | -5.7wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe630…ef20backed No | 77c | 41$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.57 | 257 | 84.4%217 W · 40 L | +30.3wins | +0.12per pick | 73cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 25c | 39.74$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 36c | 38.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.72 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 28c | 38.39$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.79 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x033e…76aebacked Yes | 70c | 35.28$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.58 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 55c | 34.21$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 51c | 34.11$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.36 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 72c | 32$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.04 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 68c | 30.74$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.76 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 49c | 29.46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.51 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 69c | 29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.89 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ec0…a64abacked Yes | 54c | 28.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.02 | 188 | 62.8%118 W · 70 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7861…3084backed Yes | 72c | 18.5$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.18 | 152 | 70.4%107 W · 45 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22a9…0a1abacked No | 65c | 18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.77 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.16per pick | 70cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on August 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on August 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 78-79°F on August 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 80-81°F on August 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.