Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 78-79°F on August 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x229427b146d2d74ae1662887df8baa166112e9bb513e0a32869a09c363e782bc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,581
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,729
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,581 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x331b…193fbacked No | 28c | 948.32$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$681.01 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x7e9c…f3a8backed Yes | 49c | 896.79$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440.08 | 602 | 36.5%220 W · 382 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 47c | 383.13$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.95 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 72c | 350$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80c0…c4f6backed Yes | 71c | 281.76$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 195 | 59.5%116 W · 79 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked Yes | 54c | 277.56$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.88 | 508 | 60.4%307 W · 201 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed No | 44c | 263.26$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.33 | 618 | 21.2%131 W · 487 L | -34.2wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8373…f0bcbacked No | 36c | 248.05$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.22 | 178 | 59%105 W · 73 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed No | 30c | 223.49$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.06 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2572…80dbbacked Yes | 67c | 193.82$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.28 | 144 | 46.5%67 W · 77 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 52c | 184.21$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.23 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb106…13f4backed No | 41c | 183.34$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.17 | 90 | 51.1%46 W · 44 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…cafebacked Yes | 60c | 171.6$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.96 | 204 | 52%106 W · 98 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68a3…5dd5backed Yes | 65c | 170.63$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.63 | 467 | 43.7%204 W · 263 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 67c | 149.46$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2d…da35backed No | 51c | 141.22$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.67 | 271 | 69%187 W · 84 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa6e0…03c7backed Yes | 31c | 130.83$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 70c | 130.7$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.89 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2250…4cd7backed No | 33c | 120.76$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.9 | 119 | 50.4%60 W · 59 L | +6.7wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 31c | 117.5$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.52 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 59c | 104.62$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.72 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 58c | 103.45$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58b9…e12fbacked No | 29c | 100$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71 | 132 | 54.5%72 W · 60 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 31c | 94.55$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.6 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 43c | 91.34$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.89 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…fcc1backed Yes | 55c | 80$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.9 | 240 | 46.7%112 W · 128 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 62c | 72.78$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.41 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 43c | 72.7$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.69 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x831a…ad82backed No | 47c | 72.02$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.31 | 196 | 48.5%95 W · 101 L | +9.9wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 59c | 70.92$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.96 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 30c | 70$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd7c2…e1e0backed Yes | 57c | 66.32$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.57 | 172 | 51.7%89 W · 83 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83dd…1517backed Yes | 79c | 63.07$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 79 | 57%45 W · 34 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee25…63ccbacked No | 53c | 62.52$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.16 | 200 | 56.5%113 W · 87 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No | 42c | 58.09$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.52 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 48c | 56.61$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.25 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 67c | 56.27$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.58 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb87f…f7d4backed Yes | 54c | 55.66$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.06 | 149 | 57.7%86 W · 63 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 27c | 50.41$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.77 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 62c | 49.52$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.84 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 34c | 49.13$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.34 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed No | 21c | 48.14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.03 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87ec…138fbacked Yes | 72c | 42.36$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.58 | 117 | 35.9%42 W · 75 L | -18.6wins | -0.16per pick | 52cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 78c | 41.97$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.74 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 55c | 40.84$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.39 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 25c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe008…f7d3backed No | 34c | 39.58$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.22 | 134 | 23.1%31 W · 103 L | -8.5wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 60c | 36.41$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.61 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 53c | 34.2$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.94 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 62c | 32.66$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.41 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdc9…6dfdbacked No | 63c | 31.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.57 | 205 | 74.6%153 W · 52 L | +7.5wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf73b…10bfbacked No | 53c | 31.52$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.79 | 283 | 44.5%126 W · 157 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 65c | 31.02$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.74 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 75c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 42c | 29$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.69 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92c4…db23backed Yes | 69c | 28.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe60…56f5backed Yes | 55c | 28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.26 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.18per pick | 62cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 47c | 27.5$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.54 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf8b…0c74backed No | 46c | 25.66$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.86 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.21per pick | 55cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe54c…2c69backed No | 50c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 255 | 60.8%155 W · 100 L | +16.2wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +14%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0e5e…35c9backed No | 47c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.25 | 173 | 50.9%88 W · 85 L | -13.2wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa0ae…4a1ebacked No | 65c | 23.78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.34 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e20…dddcbacked Yes | 60c | 22.9$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.74 | 285 | 46.3%132 W · 153 L | -17.3wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 69c | 21.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.05 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7d9…c3cbbacked Yes | 69c | 21.73$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | -4.0wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked Yes | 65c | 19.26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.52 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb699…4e20backed Yes | 68c | 16.21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.02 | 213 | 52.1%111 W · 102 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 78-79°F on August 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on August 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on August 20?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 80-81°F on August 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.