Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x83c3079e79acc6725c0bbbd107fc4b4c09199b91318048c1e114ef2a1de60faa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Team Liquidof MOUZ, Team Liquid
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,025
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,017
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,025 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x699f…c3a9backed Team Liquid | 62c | 6,242$3,893 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,349.27 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked MOUZ | 44c | 4,074$1,777 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,776.69 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfadd…3955backed MOUZ | 45c | 3,437$1,533 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,533.23 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Team Liquid | 52c | 2,743$1,434 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,309.37 | 738 | 41.7%308 W · 430 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd06c…cdafbacked MOUZ | 44c | 2,711$1,191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,190.9 | 1,186 | 43.2%512 W · 674 L | +42.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2146…d41bbacked MOUZ | 44c | 2,289$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 897 | 41.5%372 W · 525 L | +22.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…77dcbacked Team Liquid | 56c | 2,267$1,264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,003.29 | 998 | 44.4%443 W · 555 L | +21.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b5f…3397backed MOUZ | 60c | 1,657$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 237 | 46.8%111 W · 126 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc0…4b85backed MOUZ | 52c | 1,205$623 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$623.39 | 1,577 | 43.9%692 W · 885 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3cf…a5d4backed Team Liquid | 69c | 950.75$655 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295.61 | 66 | 63.6%42 W · 24 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x033e…1bb9backed Team Liquid | 55c | 734.92$407 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$328.27 | 568 | 48.8%277 W · 291 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a95…343bbacked Team Liquid | 44c | 660$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$367.05 | 698 | 35.2%246 W · 452 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb29…ea29backed MOUZ | 44c | 573.81$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.63 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba10…e85ebacked Team Liquid | 41c | 487.8$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.8 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d1d…d8c0backed Team Liquid | 48c | 412.12$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.85 | 161 | 52.2%84 W · 77 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74ef…1ac6backed Team Liquid | 44c | 386.36$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.36 | 476 | 60.7%289 W · 187 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed MOUZ | 5c | 327.71$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.93 | 137 | 33.6%46 W · 91 L | -8.1wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1709…c148backed Team Liquid | 50c | 319.04$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.1 | 483 | 52.4%253 W · 230 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa35b…0eccbacked Team Liquid | 68c | 293.03$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.03 | 172 | 51.2%88 W · 84 L | -11.0wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x249f…fed3backed MOUZ | 46c | 292.72$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.68 | 626 | 50.5%316 W · 310 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8f…3782backed MOUZ | 46c | 185.48$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.64 | 141 | 42.6%60 W · 81 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa824…c9fcbacked Team Liquid | 57c | 175.4$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.4 | 180 | 53.3%96 W · 84 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked Team Liquid | 62c | 162.51$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.06 | 1,521 | 37.9%576 W · 945 L | -57.8wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4946…e041backed Team Liquid | 48c | 146.27$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.27 | 555 | 61.8%343 W · 212 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebf4…181ebacked Team Liquid | 69c | 144.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.93 | 107 | 70.1%75 W · 32 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacf6…41fcbacked MOUZ | 48c | 128.29$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.71 | 606 | 46.9%284 W · 322 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67c3…0e36backed Team Liquid | 53c | 124.32$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.83 | 129 | 65.1%84 W · 45 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb24f…3432backed Team Liquid | 58c | 112.07$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.07 | 137 | 42.3%58 W · 79 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Team Liquid | 58c | 107.98$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.19 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83c8…3b6cbacked Team Liquid | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 913 | 56.1%512 W · 401 L | +16.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Team Liquid | 39c | 100$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61 | 128 | 43.8%56 W · 72 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb79…6274backed MOUZ | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 171 | 52%89 W · 82 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72c2…5e74backed MOUZ | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.5 | 793 | 43.6%346 W · 447 L | +38.4wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed MOUZ | 46c | 99.1$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.23 | 181 | 43.6%79 W · 102 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfb0…466fbacked Team Liquid | 47c | 89.94$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x309d…4287backed Team Liquid | 52c | 87.3$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.84 | 76 | 48.7%37 W · 39 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02a4…6854backed MOUZ | 30c | 66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.82 | 1,797 | 55.8%1,003 W · 794 L | +37.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Team Liquid | 57c | 62.02$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.71 | 869 | 49%426 W · 443 L | -3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d9e…653ebacked Team Liquid | 73c | 55$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.75 | 18 | 77.8%14 W · 4 L | +4.2wins | +0.24per pick | 54cpaid | +46.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2fd5…ef85backed Team Liquid | 50c | 52.1$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.08 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a5f…a8a0backed Team Liquid | 56c | 49.72$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.93 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.29per pick | 55cpaid | +65.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x425f…0f7abacked Team Liquid | 45c | 46$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.33 | 181 | 54.7%99 W · 82 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b4c…77bdbacked Team Liquid | 48c | 45.83$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.83 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd43…88d7backed MOUZ | 38c | 33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.54 | 103 | 34%35 W · 68 L | -5.0wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb91…8700backed Team Liquid | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Team Liquid | 69c | 27.88$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.54 | 1,901 | 47.6%905 W · 996 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe53…2dbabacked Team Liquid | 78c | 19.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 444 | 74.8%332 W · 112 L | +11.8wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: MOUZ vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: MOUZ vs Team Liquid (BO3) - FISSURE Universe Episode 8 PlayoffsTeam Liquid won
- Dota 2: MOUZ vs Team Liquid - Game 2 WinnerMOUZ won
- Game Handicap: MOUZ (-1.5) vs Team Liquid (+1.5)Team Liquid won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.