Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 30-31°F on February 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x83ed23cb3108ac088dc4a3ab55a657c30b3a8392216b31c94e245637b7681e2c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $50,428
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $50,527
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $50,428 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6df3…dd49backed No | 0c | 11,730$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa271…2727backed No | 1c | 1,462$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.43 | 52 | 0%0 W · 52 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcea7…1831backed No | 2c | 1,302$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf95d…7fbcbacked Yes | 66c | 745.52$493 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.71 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked No | 14c | 479.85$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.7 | 601 | 21%126 W · 475 L | -25.4wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x97eb…9fbebacked No | 7c | 455.72$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.02 | 299 | 22.7%68 W · 231 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked No | 29c | 400.58$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.39 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xfe82…7056backed No | 29c | 400.58$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.41 | 54 | 24.1%13 W · 41 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed No | 10c | 319.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.6 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66d1…d734backed Yes | 65c | 306.34$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.34 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 25c | 216.34$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.94 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 55c | 206.98$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.83 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b2b…5752backed Yes | 50c | 199.39$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.39 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe630…76f9backed Yes | 80c | 194.5$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.5 | 26 | 73.1%19 W · 7 L | +4.5wins | +0.17per pick | 56cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…1e4ebacked Yes | 58c | 190.92$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.5 | 321 | 47.4%152 W · 169 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf911…8d8ebacked No | 42c | 174.97$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.11 | 102 | 46.1%47 W · 55 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 39c | 159.18$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.52 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11de…4e67backed No | 16c | 158.22$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.32 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +3.9wins | +0.15per pick | 25cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9315…42a2backed No | 9c | 151.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.87 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc556…9720backed Yes | 63c | 138.85$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.83 | 255 | 49%125 W · 130 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 41c | 132.91$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.38 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf2c…174dbacked No | 24c | 126.27$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.07 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7602…2775backed No | 30c | 125.21$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.04 | 127 | 44.9%57 W · 70 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb9c8…f330backed Yes | 65c | 123.08$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.47 | 55 | 45.5%25 W · 30 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6372…4a25backed No | 43c | 116.39$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 410 | 70.5%289 W · 121 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec95…7332backed Yes | 60c | 115.93$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.37 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c8…537cbacked Yes | 48c | 104.56$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.56 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 57c | 103.29$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.11 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2138…8a11backed Yes | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 52 | 36.5%19 W · 33 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2179…2fe8backed No | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.42 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9469…6d18backed No | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 959 | 42.4%407 W · 552 L | +84.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd4fc…c6aabacked No | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +5.4wins | +0.17per pick | 30cpaid | +56.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd255…3c50backed Yes | 46c | 99.77$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.98 | 74 | 31.1%23 W · 51 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 52c | 94$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.76 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f8…af3fbacked No | 38c | 93.02$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.21 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c02…ba96backed Yes | 43c | 90.39$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.52 | 83 | 41%34 W · 49 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39c3…e155backed No | 60c | 87.64$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 254 | 47.6%121 W · 133 L | -18.8wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed No | 31c | 80.11$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.77 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b09…aca6backed Yes | 51c | 80$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.87 | 262 | 36.6%96 W · 166 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab0a…36b1backed Yes | 50c | 79.99$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.92 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 47c | 75.03$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.09 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9736…64b8backed No | 59c | 72$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.72 | 101 | 51.5%52 W · 49 L | -6.1wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 56c | 69.58$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.83 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x76a2…6651backed Yes | 63c | 63.47$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.47 | 146 | 37.7%55 W · 91 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe31e…ec88backed No | 36c | 60.32$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.67 | 559 | 19.1%107 W · 452 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe92d…bffcbacked No | 45c | 55.07$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x329e…2eafbacked Yes | 43c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41c8…424fbacked No | 36c | 47.11$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.18 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 60cpaid | +35%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c33…9ac6backed Yes | 68c | 44.24$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.24 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 54c | 42.57$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.84 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf8…11b2backed Yes | 72c | 41.57$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.57 | 33 | 21.2%7 W · 26 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ac6…b663backed No | 59c | 41.53$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.43 | 67 | 41.8%28 W · 39 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 49c | 40.27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.71 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe1ff…fee3backed No | 61c | 38.28$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.35 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb462…cc95backed Yes | 41c | 37.09$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.05 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c0d…3d3ebacked No | 56c | 34.59$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.37 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc036…30d4backed Yes | 63c | 33.23$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.39 | 139 | 46%64 W · 75 L | -7.4wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x385e…0341backed Yes | 62c | 32.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.32 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -2.8wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9856…7014backed No | 31c | 31.76$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 44 | 59.1%26 W · 18 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a28…7f61backed Yes | 79c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.31 | 85 | 57.6%49 W · 36 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 66c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc6…52c6backed Yes | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf578…cf8dbacked No | 62c | 28.68$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f9c…65dcbacked No | 55c | 27.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9642…a6a4backed No | 58c | 27.1$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.79 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc817…9c93backed No | 56c | 26.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +49.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 75c | 26.34$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.63 | 540 | 37.4%202 W · 338 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c45…7aa4backed Yes | 61c | 26.05$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.05 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e0e…152ebacked Yes | 75c | 25.24$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.23 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x095b…6f34backed Yes | 72c | 24.49$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.79 | 94 | 47.9%45 W · 49 L | +10.7wins | +0.11per pick | 36cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9b50…c672backed Yes | 44c | 24.29$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.64 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e70…50ebbacked Yes | 58c | 22.17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 315 | 67%211 W · 104 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4a5…379abacked Yes | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.41per pick | 66cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbb5d…3961backed Yes | 68c | 16.25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.18 | 91 | 42.9%39 W · 52 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 30-31°F on February 9?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 23°F or below on February 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 34°F or higher on February 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 24-25°F on February 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 26-27°F on February 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 28-29°F on February 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 32-33°F on February 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.