Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 32-33°F on February 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x263f2fd6aa7d68802a47a0df94b1df12bd230031ddcdf84a39049ddd34cdde99
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,358
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,703
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,358 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe35a…e615backed Yes | 4c | 3,239$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.48 | 58 | 24.1%14 W · 44 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -46%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb7…61e9backed Yes | 7c | 2,043$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.78 | 240 | 10%24 W · 216 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -32%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2179…2fe8backed Yes | 64c | 1,209$776 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$776.34 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 12c | 861.58$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.68 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97eb…9fbebacked Yes | 8c | 549.22$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.02 | 299 | 22.7%68 W · 231 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…d5fabacked Yes | 13c | 546.59$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.54 | 483 | 31.3%151 W · 332 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +90.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yes | 11c | 489.03$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.39 | 601 | 21%126 W · 475 L | -25.4wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 14c | 415.29$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.31 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed Yes | 4c | 285.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.19 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 22c | 225.68$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.67 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 76c | 217.67$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.48 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x420c…1f36backed Yes | 34c | 206.36$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.66 | 298 | 35.2%105 W · 193 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 23c | 199.49$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.18 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8de…cdc0backed Yes | 16c | 197.5$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.6 | 65 | 38.5%25 W · 40 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc556…9720backed Yes | 13c | 192.53$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.86 | 255 | 49%125 W · 130 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe31e…ec88backed Yes | 18c | 164.02$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.81 | 559 | 19.1%107 W · 452 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 20c | 158.19$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.53 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c8…537cbacked Yes | 23c | 157.44$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.9 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6622…e28bbacked Yes | 29c | 155$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.3 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7bfe…aa01backed Yes | 21c | 150.32$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.74 | 78 | 23.1%18 W · 60 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d46…cf8bbacked No | 79c | 150$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 58 | 48.3%28 W · 30 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x584e…090fbacked Yes | 13c | 150$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 478 | 34.3%164 W · 314 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 11c | 144.28$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.38 | 540 | 37.4%202 W · 338 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 15c | 130$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec95…7332backed Yes | 25c | 115.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0518…6876backed No | 78c | 108.19$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.4 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 22c | 106.4$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.74 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd255…3c50backed Yes | 30c | 100.08$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.02 | 74 | 31.1%23 W · 51 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9469…6d18backed No | 30c | 100$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 959 | 42.4%407 W · 552 L | +84.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4fc…c6aabacked No | 30c | 99.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +5.4wins | +0.17per pick | 30cpaid | +56.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc45c…a767backed Yes | 29c | 93.39$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.76 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 23c | 84.12$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.58 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 30c | 80.44$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.34 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1196…fe97backed Yes | 14c | 77.63$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.68 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39c3…e155backed No | 74c | 70.65$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.15 | 254 | 47.6%121 W · 133 L | -18.8wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4a91…983fbacked No | 77c | 70$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.15 | 139 | 42.4%59 W · 80 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb39…4e72backed Yes | 21c | 65.47$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.69 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x358b…3722backed Yes | 28c | 63.5$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.78 | 525 | 33.1%174 W · 351 L | +21.7wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 70c | 61.35$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.66 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…1e4ebacked Yes | 21c | 60$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 321 | 47.4%152 W · 169 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4a5…379abacked Yes | 52c | 59.47$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.41per pick | 66cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x370c…3eb1backed Yes | 29c | 55$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 29cpaid | +62.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf911…8d8ebacked No | 80c | 50.54$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.11 | 102 | 46.1%47 W · 55 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 80c | 37.49$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ac6…b663backed No | 69c | 37$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.52 | 67 | 41.8%28 W · 39 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 77c | 28$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.58 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f9c…65dcbacked No | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0152…3679backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +36%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2e5…86f4backed No | 70c | 21.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.43 | 43 | 62.8%27 W · 16 L | +4.5wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe1b6…e086backed No | 78c | 19.23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.23 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +48.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5dd1…496cbacked No | 75c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 79c | 15.75$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.31 | 763 | 71.4%545 W · 218 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 79c | 13.8$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.9 | 636 | 56.1%357 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 32-33°F on February 9?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 23°F or below on February 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 34°F or higher on February 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 24-25°F on February 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 26-27°F on February 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 28-29°F on February 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 30-31°F on February 9?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.