Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 28-29°F on February 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x94e8e2095919a3ecbe5e4db0906e8bcb9eee13574674095b9ce2b5f0f7de5254
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,467
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,373
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,467 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1de8…9dc7backed Yes | 10c | 884.99$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 18cpaid | -81.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x66d1…d734backed Yes | 39c | 808.27$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb261…a612backed Yes | 18c | 254.89$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.63 | 105 | 42.9%45 W · 60 L | -9.9wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8f3c…b4b8backed Yes | 22c | 199.99$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.14 | 68 | 29.4%20 W · 48 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed23…19c5backed Yes | 19c | 199.99$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 74c | 199.48$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.2 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 22c | 164.4$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.69 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe31e…ec88backed Yes | 16c | 157.71$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.32 | 559 | 19.1%107 W · 452 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80bd…1f70backed Yes | 33c | 150.09$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | +6.1wins | +0.15per pick | 41cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 10c | 129.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 24c | 120.37$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.7 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 16c | 119.84$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.71 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c02…ba96backed Yes | 36c | 116.5$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.13 | 83 | 41%34 W · 49 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d2f…06adbacked Yes | 29c | 114.13$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yes | 21c | 109.05$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.53 | 601 | 21%126 W · 475 L | -25.4wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x584e…090fbacked No | 58c | 105.82$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.41 | 478 | 34.3%164 W · 314 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ef6…1174backed Yes | 20c | 101.47$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -3.6wins | -0.19per pick | 35cpaid | -70.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4a91…983fbacked Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.85 | 139 | 42.4%59 W · 80 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b5…bef4backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2138…8a11backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 52 | 36.5%19 W · 33 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf57d…f322backed Yes | 23c | 94.51$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.3 | 255 | 19.2%49 W · 206 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacf0…0274backed Yes | 21c | 85.91$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.63 | 54 | 29.6%16 W · 38 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 14c | 85.63$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.89 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd583…eea7backed Yes | 35c | 82.34$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab0a…36b1backed Yes | 26c | 79.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.42 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7257…fc40backed Yes | 16c | 77.94$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x004a…fb69backed Yes | 26c | 74.34$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.24 | 34 | 5.9%2 W · 32 L | -3.9wins | -0.12per pick | 17cpaid | -83.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2918…9fe6backed Yes | 30c | 62$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.31 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3fd5…cf27backed No | 66c | 61.81$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.02 | 62 | 58.1%36 W · 26 L | +6.0wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf5ee…b957backed Yes | 21c | 59.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x124e…f2dfbacked Yes | 26c | 58.28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27c1…2509backed Yes | 22c | 57$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -62.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…c49ebacked No | 75c | 55$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.75 | 1,110 | 65%722 W · 388 L | +38.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x879d…b501backed Yes | 23c | 54.05$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.66 | 605 | 19.7%119 W · 486 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x329e…2eafbacked Yes | 21c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2e…c770backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 395 | 41.3%163 W · 232 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe170…3c0bbacked No | 70c | 49.97$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.99 | 79 | 50.6%40 W · 39 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 74c | 48.75$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.8 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xece5…c252backed No | 70c | 47.78$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.18 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1196…fe97backed No | 68c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.8 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5eee…bac2backed No | 79c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 60 | 45%27 W · 33 L | -6.3wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 79c | 30.87$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.63 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ac6…b663backed No | 76c | 30.6$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.38 | 67 | 41.8%28 W · 39 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0967…0c60backed No | 76c | 28.8$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.91 | 188 | 60.1%113 W · 75 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7112…6d11backed No | 75c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 349 | 70.2%245 W · 104 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed No | 80c | 24.94$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.1 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x420c…1f36backed No | 78c | 22.92$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.08 | 298 | 35.2%105 W · 193 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 79c | 14.91$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.13 | 636 | 56.1%357 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc12…05f2backed No | 76c | 13.16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.16 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 65cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 28-29°F on February 9?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 23°F or below on February 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 34°F or higher on February 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 24-25°F on February 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 26-27°F on February 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 30-31°F on February 9?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 32-33°F on February 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.