Tennis · resolved market
China Open: Adrian Mannarino vs Alexander Bublik
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x83f2fc5a264c434208b746404e8999245b9e70c64f4fe99feef26f2f96c7d86e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Mannarinoof Mannarino, Bublik
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,323
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,029
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,323 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2129…4222backed Mannarino | 61c | 4,431$2,703 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,728.01 | 652 | 42.8%279 W · 373 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa82a…a759backed Mannarino | 38c | 4,000$1,507 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,493.36 | 339 | 55.2%187 W · 152 L | +18.2wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x95b8…47c9backed Mannarino | 34c | 2,964$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,963.82 | 284 | 43%122 W · 162 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed Bublik | 27c | 1,497$405 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$404.87 | 819 | 38.9%319 W · 500 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e67…91b0backed Bublik | 27c | 1,490$407 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$407 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4bee…ca01backed Bublik | 56c | 1,271$716 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$715.64 | 120 | 50%60 W · 60 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf3c…f5ffbacked Bublik | 64c | 1,154$739 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$738.61 | 118 | 59.3%70 W · 48 L | +8.0wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Bublik | 64c | 1,057$676 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$676.48 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Mannarino | 68c | 1,056$719 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$336.78 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Mannarino | 29c | 1,041$307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$733.92 | 1,039 | 54.6%567 W · 472 L | +37.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0709…f2edbacked Bublik | 66c | 963.06$640 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$640 | 84 | 53.6%45 W · 39 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Bublik | 52c | 861.37$445 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$445.04 | 2,426 | 47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Bublik | 68c | 786.43$535 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$534.77 | 69 | 30.4%21 W · 48 L | -9.8wins | -0.14per pick | 45cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x09b6…f48dbacked Bublik | 48c | 767.22$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370.39 | 320 | 50%160 W · 160 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbaa…59b8backed Bublik | 71c | 705.73$501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$501.07 | 324 | 48.1%156 W · 168 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Bublik | 49c | 700$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$344.5 | 1,852 | 44.5%825 W · 1,027 L | -20.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x700f…62d8backed Bublik | 52c | 595.06$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.43 | 383 | 48%184 W · 199 L | +7.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9d1…2b9ebacked Bublik | 53c | 501.85$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265 | 164 | 45.7%75 W · 89 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Bublik | 62c | 500$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310 | 1,489 | 32.6%486 W · 1,003 L | +22.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Mannarino | 30c | 499.98$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$349.99 | 281 | 41.6%117 W · 164 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…ff0ebacked Bublik | 65c | 450$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.5 | 591 | 51.6%305 W · 286 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe671…a682backed Mannarino | 30c | 400$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280 | 576 | 45.5%262 W · 314 L | +4.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdc2…8b96backed Bublik | 28c | 361.55$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.57 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Bublik | 40c | 353.72$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.6 | 629 | 52.1%328 W · 301 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96df…4caabacked Mannarino | 30c | 342.43$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.7 | 260 | 39.2%102 W · 158 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac43…4925backed Mannarino | 32c | 314.65$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.65 | 295 | 53.2%157 W · 138 L | -17.1wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfcfe…d420backed Mannarino | 55c | 286.8$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.9 | 253 | 52.2%132 W · 121 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98a7…d3fdbacked Bublik | 71c | 262.15$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.13 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Bublik | 66c | 234.9$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.28 | 627 | 42.4%266 W · 361 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9354…6502backed Bublik | 37c | 207.8$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.55 | 755 | 47.8%361 W · 394 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b5a…7618backed Mannarino | 33c | 205$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.65 | 253 | 30%76 W · 177 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61c1…0513backed Bublik | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,287 | 60.7%781 W · 506 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd82a…5fcfbacked Bublik | 69c | 200$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138 | 189 | 43.4%82 W · 107 L | -8.8wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Mannarino | 36c | 196.31$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.64 | 149 | 49%73 W · 76 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa263…6cf0backed Bublik | 70c | 192.43$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.7 | 175 | 38.3%67 W · 108 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfdbf…c88ebacked Bublik | 33c | 151.52$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 245 | 29.8%73 W · 172 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25bf…7a56backed Bublik | 47c | 147.99$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 2,335 | 46.6%1,088 W · 1,247 L | +55.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd9…f0d5backed Bublik | 70c | 142.86$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 177 | 67.2%119 W · 58 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Bublik | 70c | 142.86$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 480 | 43.3%208 W · 272 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Bublik | 70c | 142.86$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 639 | 42.4%271 W · 368 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Bublik | 72c | 138.89$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 731 | 47.9%350 W · 381 L | -16.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d37…5effbacked Bublik | 67c | 120$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…14a3backed Bublik | 67c | 104.48$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 383 | 56.9%218 W · 165 L | -7.4wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa21d…a769backed Bublik | 50c | 101.38$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.69 | 63 | 58.7%37 W · 26 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7753…73cebacked Bublik | 71c | 100$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 236 | 70.8%167 W · 69 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36bf…2864backed Bublik | 36c | 85$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 444 | 23.9%106 W · 338 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…06c9backed Bublik | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 260 | 45%117 W · 143 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x082d…fd36backed Bublik | 48c | 76.26$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +157.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe64f…5976backed Bublik | 40c | 75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 149 | 40.9%61 W · 88 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Mannarino | 33c | 72.19$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.02 | 730 | 48.8%356 W · 374 L | -18.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2fa7…04bfbacked Bublik | 71c | 69.2$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.13 | 69 | 49.3%34 W · 35 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c10…35dcbacked Bublik | 69c | 68.94$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.57 | 27 | 74.1%20 W · 7 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 67cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc287…f30dbacked Bublik | 70c | 51.01$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.71 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf10f…004dbacked Bublik | 70c | 50$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 61 | 54.1%33 W · 28 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ee…8067backed Bublik | 71c | 35.21$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 499 | 55.1%275 W · 224 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b17…1713backed Bublik | 58c | 30.85$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.20per pick | 58cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Bublik | 67c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 951 | 40.1%381 W · 570 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x729a…1e51backed Bublik | 54c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 56 | 66.1%37 W · 19 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd306…f9e9backed Bublik | 69c | 23.35$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5998…141cbacked Bublik | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 36 | 63.9%23 W · 13 L | +4.9wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.