NBA · resolved market
Spread: Lakers (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x841bdb139faa33f26396b87aebb03e3426d38a407ba2d5e69521958cad18372c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Warriorsof Lakers, Warriors
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,850
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,260
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,850 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x30ef…70dfbacked Warriors | 58c | 1,369$794 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$575.08 | 121 | 43%52 W · 69 L | +6.9wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3ffb…df76backed Lakers | 42c | 1,002$416 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$416 | 470 | 48.5%228 W · 242 L | -18.6wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7dd0…2b4bbacked Lakers | 43c | 700$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301 | 86 | 37.2%32 W · 54 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked Warriors | 58c | 464.52$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.95 | 418 | 48.3%202 W · 216 L | -7.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Warriors | 51c | 325.44$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.8 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Lakers | 51c | 261$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.11 | 857 | 42.6%365 W · 492 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x147b…dceabacked Lakers | 42c | 200$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 53cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Warriors | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…4f2abacked Lakers | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa41c…fadebacked Warriors | 59c | 62.1$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.46 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | +3.5wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +39%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9da3…a7efbacked Lakers | 41c | 46.72$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf503…39e2backed Lakers | 35c | 41.01$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.54 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +54.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcda0…a51abacked Warriors | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 296 | 52.7%156 W · 140 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28a8…57d5backed Warriors | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Lakers (-2.5)this page
- Warriors vs. LakersWarriors won
- Warriors vs. Lakers: O/U 227.5Over won
- Warriors vs. Lakers: O/U 228.5Under won
- Warriors vs. Lakers: O/U 229.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.