NBA · resolved market
Warriors vs. Lakers: O/U 228.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x139c459a61f6af6a0c661c62aa30225a5a59775c80ec94f5eed51eeda80d727c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,043
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,170
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,043 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Under | 53c | 18,638$9,960 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,678.58 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d0f…4faabacked Over | 47c | 7,100$3,337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,337 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over | 44c | 5,000$2,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,200 | 1,820 | 52.1%948 W · 872 L | +48.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cda…6e17backed Over | 46c | 4,777$2,197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,197.27 | 88 | 43.2%38 W · 50 L | -6.0wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -19%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 46c | 4,628$2,147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,147.09 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d5c…0182backed Over | 44c | 2,333$1,027 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,026.55 | 477 | 51.8%247 W · 230 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Under | 53c | 1,870$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$869.64 | 662 | 50.8%336 W · 326 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb43…3c74backed Under | 55c | 1,250$688 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$562.5 | 477 | 48.8%233 W · 244 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 56c | 823$461 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$362.12 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb43…9d70backed Under | 56c | 714.29$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$314.29 | 89 | 36%32 W · 57 L | -6.7wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0a…c2c4backed Under | 56c | 357.14$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.14 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -3.0wins | -0.14per pick | 57cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Over | 46c | 340.74$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.74 | 2,153 | 51.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L | +76.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fef…5840backed Under | 54c | 340.74$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.74 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed Under | 55c | 299.96$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.98 | 726 | 47.7%346 W · 380 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Over | 45c | 241.68$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.87 | 474 | 48.7%231 W · 243 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dd0…2b4bbacked Under | 56c | 200$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88 | 86 | 37.2%32 W · 54 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ee7…12c5backed Over | 46c | 200$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 65 | 41.5%27 W · 38 L | -7.6wins | -0.12per pick | 53cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x35e2…2953backed Under | 55c | 199.99$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x731c…a252backed Under | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.44 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +2.2wins | +0.22per pick | 58cpaid | +43%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Over | 47c | 169$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.43 | 1,151 | 53.7%618 W · 533 L | -41.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7b3…f97cbacked Under | 57c | 150$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.5 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 46c | 133$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.21 | 597 | 43.6%260 W · 337 L | -11.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61cd…541ebacked Under | 54c | 111.11$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.11 | 31 | 64.5%20 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…7017backed Under | 53c | 88$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.36 | 354 | 47.7%169 W · 185 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x851b…08dcbacked Over | 45c | 66.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Over | 39c | 65.28$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.74 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd595…b30bbacked Under | 59c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fb4…8830backed Over | 44c | 45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 202 | 41.1%83 W · 119 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5908…cbc1backed Over | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 79 | 26.6%21 W · 58 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb21a…0d4abacked Over | 46c | 39.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -2.0wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d5a…1f16backed Over | 45c | 33.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.18per pick | 40cpaid | -45%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Warriors vs. Lakers: O/U 228.5this page
- Spread: Lakers (-2.5)Warriors won
- Warriors vs. LakersWarriors won
- Warriors vs. Lakers: O/U 227.5Over won
- Warriors vs. Lakers: O/U 229.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.