NBA · resolved market
Warriors vs. Lakers: O/U 229.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x475d0282ecd9a4747af0d0b03ebb79c651f24f077f429b31d4f5f9e80fe595a1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,773
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,878
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,773 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Over | 44c | 4,636$2,040 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,039.71 | 2,153 | 51.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L | +76.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 56c | 4,022$2,252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,769.9 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4403…4252backed Under | 56c | 500$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220 | 41 | 63.4%26 W · 15 L | +4.1wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x29c1…012cbacked Under | 58c | 100$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -3.5wins | -0.12per pick | 53cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x61cd…541ebacked Under | 70c | 70.06$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.9 | 31 | 64.5%20 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02f7…b17abacked Under | 56c | 70$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.8 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3357…42fabacked Under | 40c | 56.67$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69fc…3f73backed Over | 60c | 56.67$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 53c | 56$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.68 | 597 | 43.6%260 W · 337 L | -11.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd99…f375backed Under | 47c | 56$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.68 | 381 | 51.2%195 W · 186 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Over | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 353 | 52.4%185 W · 168 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Over | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x909d…f6f0backed Under | 57c | 47.37$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.37 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +1.7wins | +0.10per pick | 35cpaid | +76.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x218e…e49dbacked Over | 45c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 482 | 55%265 W · 217 L | -9.6wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69e1…11a6backed Under | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -14%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x166c…d94bbacked Under | 75c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.14 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f20…0100backed Under | 60c | 21.58$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.63 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Warriors vs. Lakers: O/U 229.5this page
- Spread: Lakers (-2.5)Warriors won
- Warriors vs. LakersWarriors won
- Warriors vs. Lakers: O/U 227.5Over won
- Warriors vs. Lakers: O/U 228.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.