College Football · resolved market
Spread: Michigan State (-7.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x841f7d28fc0768be2e5b546812d926fc8d6080f9b41f0853f6a240e073d1a633
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- UCLAof Michigan State, UCLA
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,658
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,809
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,658 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Michigan State | 0c | 13,500$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 224 | 4%9 W · 215 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -74.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Michigan State | 47c | 469.39$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.61 | 526 | 41.8%220 W · 306 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44a0…c3b9backed UCLA | 53c | 300$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141 | 117 | 35.9%42 W · 75 L | -5.4wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked Michigan State | 51c | 208.85$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.4 | 756 | 51.9%392 W · 364 L | +20.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed UCLA | 49c | 205$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.55 | 568 | 44.5%253 W · 315 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Michigan State | 47c | 161.77$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.03 | 859 | 47.7%410 W · 449 L | +14.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf48d…fe48backed UCLA | 53c | 150$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.5 | 44 | 54.5%24 W · 20 L | +3.4wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x258e…d16cbacked Michigan State | 50c | 150$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 174 | 50%87 W · 87 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked UCLA | 50c | 122.83$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.42 | 2,013 | 49.6%999 W · 1,014 L | +24.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a33…2534backed UCLA | 50c | 97.64$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.82 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6941…efd5backed UCLA | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.34 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Michigan State | 48c | 78$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.44 | 399 | 54.1%216 W · 183 L | +21.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa5f8…1affbacked UCLA | 53c | 75.83$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.83 | 86 | 45.3%39 W · 47 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc96f…d46bbacked Michigan State | 50c | 57.48$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.74 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | -3.9wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd774…82cdbacked UCLA | 52c | 38.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.18 | 160 | 50%80 W · 80 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked UCLA | 53c | 22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.34 | 818 | 47.9%392 W · 426 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca67…c23dbacked Michigan State | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Michigan State (-7.5)this page
- O/U 55.5Under won
- Spread: Michigan State (-8.5)UCLA won
- UCLA vs. Michigan StateUCLA won
- UCLA vs. Michigan State: O/U 52.5Under won
- UCLA vs. Michigan State: O/U 53.5Under won
- UCLA vs. Michigan State: O/U 54.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.