MLB · resolved market
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x84563ee5abcc5a4951d102ed3167bfe41f5c571070e72b59ae1191461f22ee9f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,439
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,114
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,439 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 62c | 3,139$1,944 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,944.02 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 37c | 2,640$977 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,663.2 | 4,087 | 57.6%2,354 W · 1,733 L | +66.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Under | 49c | 2,388$1,170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,170.26 | 3,509 | 51%1,789 W · 1,720 L | +53.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x792e…fd6cbacked Over | 51c | 2,374$1,211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,163.32 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Over | 17c | 1,216$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,012.51 | 2,093 | 51.1%1,070 W · 1,023 L | +44.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34b…9296backed Over | 38c | 1,081$411 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$670.27 | 384 | 53.6%206 W · 178 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e50…2609backed Over | 38c | 1,053$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$652.63 | 878 | 50.5%443 W · 435 L | +12.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3f…4333backed Over | 38c | 921.05$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$571.05 | 570 | 53.3%304 W · 266 L | +14.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 63c | 733.62$462 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$462.08 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17d7…9e1ebacked Over | 39c | 410.74$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.1 | 1,026 | 58.1%596 W · 430 L | +18.9wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 54c | 208.95$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.45 | 5,812 | 43.7%2,541 W · 3,271 L | -188.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb146…c098backed Over | 37c | 163.11$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.76 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf39d…7a09backed Under | 67c | 153.4$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.95 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -23%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 56c | 127.08$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.07 | 8,594 | 52.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L | +508.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked Over | 37c | 116.28$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.26 | 1,240 | 58.1%721 W · 519 L | +23.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Over | 45c | 107.27$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59 | 4,368 | 47.4%2,070 W · 2,298 L | -79.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x266c…6963backed Under | 55c | 107.27$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 53 | 60.4%32 W · 21 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…86d3backed Over | 26c | 100$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74 | 77 | 46.8%36 W · 41 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8766…4171backed Under | 69c | 84.53$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.06 | 143 | 51.7%74 W · 69 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c60…01febacked Over | 37c | 78.94$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.73 | 80 | 56.3%45 W · 35 L | +4.7wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 60c | 63.33$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.2 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f11…749dbacked Under | 51c | 58.92$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -4.0wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -30%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x93a2…5181backed Over | 37c | 48.43$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.51 | 195 | 42.6%83 W · 112 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57b2…9da2backed Under | 49c | 42.71$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.93 | 134 | 38.8%52 W · 82 L | -12.7wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 51c | 39.66$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.44 | 2,995 | 47.9%1,435 W · 1,560 L | +12.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47c9…2038backed Over | 53c | 22.42$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.54 | 476 | 46.8%223 W · 253 L | +27.0wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5this page
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Los Angeles DodgersArizona Diamondbacks won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 10.5Over won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 11.5Under won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 5.5Over won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 6.5Over won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 7.5Over won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-4.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-5.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Los Angeles DodgersNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.