MLB · resolved market
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd6858e68f798039ec08430de86a0c5265aa76d77e221669b2b3fb531a71126f1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,019
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,293
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,019 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 41c | 3,776$1,561 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,561.44 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ac2…a9e0backed Under | 78c | 3,674$2,862 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,861.86 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe98c…8792backed Under | 60c | 2,653$1,589 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,588.79 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 66c | 2,532$1,679 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$852.82 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44f0…432cbacked Over | 43c | 1,827$786 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,041.39 | 410 | 51.7%212 W · 198 L | +14.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Over | 42c | 1,569$659 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$910 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Over | 52c | 1,530$789 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$741.29 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Over | 41c | 1,000$407 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$592.99 | 297 | 52.5%156 W · 141 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 58c | 919.72$534 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$534.23 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeef6…cd4cbacked Under | 60c | 855.79$513 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$513.47 | 556 | 53.4%297 W · 259 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc23…8283backed Under | 58c | 855.75$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 431 | 53.6%231 W · 200 L | +10.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 57c | 773.24$442 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$441.7 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 41c | 719.23$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$427.27 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over | 41c | 612.99$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$363.68 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Over | 7c | 600$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$558 | 707 | 37.6%266 W · 441 L | +24.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba62…3e29backed Under | 60c | 503.06$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 221 | 49.3%109 W · 112 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc11…4b4abacked Over | 6c | 500$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$470 | 25 | 12%3 W · 22 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 4cpaid | +126.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a6d…33e2backed Over | 6c | 500$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$470 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | +2.3wins | +0.14per pick | 5cpaid | +259.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Over | 40c | 376.47$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.1 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd52…aa25backed Under | 28c | 357.14$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 281 | 52%146 W · 135 L | -5.1wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 14c | 289$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.46 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 35c | 281.75$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked Over | 35c | 252.24$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.18 | 374 | 44.4%166 W · 208 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe88…67a8backed Under | 35c | 240.45$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.19 | 970 | 50.7%492 W · 478 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf92…9e59backed Under | 61c | 229.51$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -2.9wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a8…6764backed Over | 43c | 202.97$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.55 | 264 | 38.3%101 W · 163 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3a9…b216backed Over | 6c | 180.96$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.1 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +3.3wins | +0.22per pick | 5cpaid | +411.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Over | 40c | 180$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.4 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Over | 42c | 180$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.4 | 1,172 | 49.1%575 W · 597 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52a0…ec9dbacked Under | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 382 | 52.1%199 W · 183 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6717…d6ebbacked Under | 59c | 169.49$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 372 | 56.5%210 W · 162 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46f8…68ccbacked Over | 41c | 165$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.35 | 450 | 45.8%206 W · 244 L | -10.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 42c | 157.16$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.15 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Under | 58c | 150.23$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.13 | 413 | 46.7%193 W · 220 L | -10.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Under | 35c | 142.83$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93a2…5181backed Under | 36c | 136.5$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.14 | 195 | 42.6%83 W · 112 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Under | 35c | 135.83$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.21 | 1,733 | 49%849 W · 884 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2792…c4f6backed Under | 36c | 133.97$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.23 | 739 | 49.8%368 W · 371 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Under | 39c | 132.68$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.36 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 40c | 130.01$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.23 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3992…349cbacked Under | 58c | 129.31$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 167 | 44.9%75 W · 92 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Under | 54c | 122.29$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.03 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Over | 72c | 109.32$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.61 | 733 | 55.3%405 W · 328 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d03…b8a6backed Under | 57c | 108.86$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | -4.0wins | -0.10per pick | 63cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x88fb…db3abacked Over | 42c | 95.24$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.24 | 732 | 43.4%318 W · 414 L | -14.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf39d…7a09backed Over | 39c | 93.15$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.82 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -23%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 43c | 83.81$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.77 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc846…c413backed Under | 56c | 81$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.36 | 539 | 50.6%273 W · 266 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3404…10d2backed Over | 41c | 80$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.98 | 528 | 52.1%275 W · 253 L | +13.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd6b…e0f3backed Over | 43c | 72.6$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.38 | 172 | 53.5%92 W · 80 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04ec…8ac9backed Over | 42c | 70$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.6 | 688 | 46.8%322 W · 366 L | +9.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9565…ec9abacked Over | 42c | 57.44$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.29 | 153 | 49%75 W · 78 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bba…2d0bbacked Under | 34c | 46$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.59 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +2.9wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc8…a0e4backed Over | 41c | 45$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.78 | 130 | 54.6%71 W · 59 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 42c | 44.71$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.93 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab8b…24ffbacked Under | 36c | 44.45$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 248 | 43.5%108 W · 140 L | -13.2wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -23%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2077…8161backed Over | 44c | 44.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.89 | 342 | 55.3%189 W · 153 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x490f…a02dbacked Under | 58c | 41.38$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -17%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d10…940abacked Over | 42c | 39.85$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.11 | 1,014 | 47.7%484 W · 530 L | -28.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Over | 40c | 37$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.2 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f3d…95b1backed Over | 43c | 34.88$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.88 | 286 | 39.2%112 W · 174 L | +11.5wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb9…c8fabacked Under | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.14per pick | 50cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x237f…e76ebacked Over | 41c | 34.01$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.17 | 172 | 55.8%96 W · 76 L | +8.1wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8766…4171backed Over | 39c | 34.01$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.75 | 143 | 51.7%74 W · 69 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 76c | 33.67$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.08 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefff…a781backed Under | 59c | 27.1$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.99 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Under | 77c | 25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.25 | 1,814 | 49.1%891 W · 923 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0570…16c9backed Under | 59c | 24.51$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 106 | 42.5%45 W · 61 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf27…f35fbacked Over | 43c | 23.26$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.26 | 100 | 66%66 W · 34 L | +10.4wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1e4b…0a04backed Over | 67c | 15.52$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.17 | 175 | 50.3%88 W · 87 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 9.5this page
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Los Angeles DodgersArizona Diamondbacks won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 10.5Over won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 11.5Under won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 5.5Over won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 6.5Over won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 7.5Over won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5Over won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-4.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-5.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Los Angeles DodgersNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.